TextWe can I think also look forward and wonder about another signal we are receiving. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has risen by just under 6% so far in 2012. A rising oil price makes me think that there may be more demand for it than many have thought. After all so many told us the oil price will fall in 2012. Of course it may yet do so as so much of the year has yet to come and no doubt some of the rise is due to military posturing by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz, but so far the story has been different.
TextGlobal light vehicle sales will decline 14.7% from 2008 levels to 55.2 million units in 2009, according to RL Polk & Company. The study also predicts that the automotive markets won't emerge from the worldwide recession until 2012, later than previously forecast, due to worsening economic conditions. Growth is in Asia. Polk points out that its current forecast for 2009 of 55.2 million units is 23% below the 71 million vehicles that it predicted in mid-2008, which was prior to the start of the economic crisis in Q4-2008. But as the scenario changed thereafter, it seems that global light vehicle sales through 2015 will be more than 80 million units lower than predicted in mid-2008. The US auto market has been flattened by this ongoing economic crisis. New vehicle sales have dropped from a high of almost 17.5 mln in 2000 to 13.2 mln in 2008, with a further decline to 10 mln projected for 2009, forecasting that the US market will reaching the 12.5 unit level only in/after 2012. It is also predicted that 2009 will mark the end of US market share dominance for the domestic automakers: Asian manufacturers will capture 47% of the US market share, compared to 44% for American automakers and 9 for European brands. Long-term growth for the global automotive market will come from the emerging markets of Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Africa and the fast-growing Asia-Pacific/Middle Eastern region, excluding developed Japan . Beginning in 2015, it is expected that more light vehicles will be sold in the emerging markets than in the combined “saturated” markets of the United States, Canada, Western Europe and Japan. China and India are viewed as the key drivers of growth, as vehicles become attainable for an increasing percentage of these countries' huge consumer populations. These emerging markets will come out of the current crisis three years earlier than the saturated regions. Light vehicle sales in the emerging markets will top 2007 levels in 2011; this won't happen until 2014 in the saturated regions. Under this scenario, Western Europe will do better than the United States and Canada in the short term, in large part because of scrappage incentives introduced in Europe. The proposed US cash for clunkers bill is mired in partisan and pressure group politics with no immediate passage in sight. As a result, light vehicle sales in Western Europe will fall 9% from 2008 to 2009, compared to 24% in the United States and Canada during the same time frame. Worldwide, Toyota will maintain its position as the top manufacturer, with a fairly stable market share of 12% through 2020. Ford and General Motors have both seen their global market share drop by nearly 5 percentage points from 2000 to 2008, and it is expected that both will lose more market share through 2012. Volkswagen is making great inroads in China , which will certainly boost its success worldwide. At some point in 2009, Volkswagen is expected to surpass GM as the number two manufacturer in the world.
Originally posted by diamondsmith
reply to post by boncho
This happens increasingly less as sales fall.
next generation body styles