Perhaps now, we can also draw this thread to a close as it has become fairly negative.
In the last few days, the Coalition government have tried to address Clegg's ridiculous comments, not directly but by issuing far more reasonable
statements.
Michael Moore has acknowledged (as has Cameron) that this is an issue for the Scots alone to decide and that they are happy to pass legislation to
make the referendum happen. As many law professors have since pointed out, it wouldn't have made much difference whether an SNP-organised referendum
was 'technically' outwith their remit, if it was properly-constituted political realities would mean that the UK Government would have little choice
to acknowledge the settled will of the Scottish people. However, if Westminster are happy to give it full 'legal' force, then let them do so.
That means the only issues left are over timing and the actual form and numbers on the referendum paper.
Although it wasn't actually in the Manifesto, the SNP made it clear before Scotland went to the polls that any referendum would be in the latter-half
of their term. They were elected as the biggest party giving them a mandate to carry out their programme. Therefore, Autumn 2014 will be the date. Any
attempt to bounce Scotland into an earlier decision will backfire on Unionists but clearly, Salmond has chosen the timescale that he thinks gives his
campaign the best chance of succeeding..... So what? These powers and advantages are inherent in our system - which is why past PMs have chosen
advantageous dates for General Elections.
Let us not be sidetracked by those who say, 'Yes, but the SNP didn't have a majority of the entire electorate'. Well, show me when in our modern
multi-party state that has ever happened.... In a devolved Scottish system specifically designed to prevent one party winning a majority, they did so.
They have an electoral mandate - a powerful one. That case will be made even stronger in the May council elections when it is being whispered amongst
Labour insiders that Glasgow City Council may even fall to the SNP. I remain to be convinced of that but it is clear that the SNP will continue to
make gains - not, in fact, based on the independence question but on a growing record of stable, sensible and innovative government at a national and
local level. Scotland's voters are now fed up with years of Labour Party cronyism, mismanagement and taking Scottish voters for granted. The Tories
and Lib-Dems have effectively been written off as non-entities but, interestingly, some studies show that in an independent Scotland those two parties
would do better as people could vote with their natural political leanings without worrying about Westminster domination.
Whether the Referendum ends up being a three or two-question one is harder to decipher.
Everybody in every party claims to prefer a straight Yes-No but being politicians, my sense is that none of them want to be hamstrung by a clear
expression of a nation's will one way or the other. Politicians like grey areas where they can try and manipulate to gain advantage. We'll see how
this develops.
The polls? Recently they show that around 38% would vote for full independence. 5% are undecided and their votes are up for grabs. Of the remaining
57%, the majority would like to see some version of Devo-Max or Independence-Lite. These are worrying figures for Unionists. Trends show support for
more powers is increasing while staunch defence of the status quo is receding. This is on a knife edge.
Somewhat surprisingly, these figures are fairly constant across all social classes.
Support for independence falls off somewhat amongst the over 55s, which is why Alex Salmond would like to see voting age reduced to 16 or 17, as SNP
polls well in the younger age groups. Which makes one think that there is a sense of historical inevitability about independence. As has often been
pointed out, societies don't ask for less democracy.
The suspicion is that continuing sensible government by Salmond and the SNP will shift some of those swing voters to his camp, while perceived
'interference' from London will do the same thing. In this climate, it is clear the supporters of Union have a vested interest in the 'sooner rather
than later' position, while the SNP increase their chances of a Yes vote with every month they hold out and, I admit, every public grievance they can
fool the Westminster government into creating.
Many on this thread have stated that the SNP won't win the referendum based on headline polling figures but the underlying trends actually suggest
this is too close to call.
Interesting times ahead.
edit on 13-1-2012 by YeshuaPiso because: (no reason given)
edit on 13-1-2012 by YeshuaPiso because: (no reason
given)
edit on 13-1-2012 by YeshuaPiso because: (no reason given)