posted on Jan, 6 2012 @ 09:08 AM
reply to post by SurrealisticPillow
I said if young voters continue to be his main bloc of support that he will get nowhere.
It helps to push you over the top to have the young voters...but that alone can't win you anything.
Those entrance polls look deceiving...people see that Ron Paul got 48% of an age group and they say "WOW...Paul really is popular". But they don't
look at the fact that he got 48% of the smallest group of voters. If you look at Romney or Santorum...their biggest percentage of support is smaller,
but it is for the larger voter groups of older people. By comparison, even though they got a smaller percentage of that age group, the overall
percentage is larger than Ron Paul's.
Let's assume that these entrance polls truly do represent the entire state. There were roughly 120,000 voters in the Iowa Caucus.
Ron Paul's largest percentage of support came from the young voters, which is 15% of the voters. He got 48% of those votes. So 15% of 120k is
18,000 voters. He got 48% of those voters, which is 8640 votes.
Let's look by comparison to the largest bloc of voters by age, the 45-64 year olds. Santorum won this age group with 26% of that vote. 26% looks
tiny compared to Ron Paul's commanding 48% of young voters...but lets crunch the numbers. This age group makes up 42% of the voters...out of 120k
voters, that is 50,400 voters. Santorum won 26% of these which is 13,104 votes. If you do the numbers for Ron Paul in this age group...he got less
total support (8,064 votes) than he did from the young voters (8,604 votes).
So even though Ron Paul looks like he had a commanding percentage of one age group...it is the smallest age group and can't compete with the larger
age groups. That is why I think this whole thread is misleading and why I think Ron Paul supporters are delusional and lying to themselves about the
support they think they have.
This is why Ron Paul will go nowhere...his base is the young voters. You can't compare this to Obama...his base was never the young voters...it was
just a very nice boost for him.