reply to post by Elsha
Rick Santorum .............25%
Ron Paul ......................21%
John Huntsman .............1%
With the exception of Huntsman the GOP electorate has briefly got behind every candidate in that list has had a "Surge in the Polls!" It is as if
there is a desperation by the Parties core voters to find anyone besides Romney....but the "Establishment" is behind Romney.
Romney has by far spent the most money and has the most money on hand...and yet 75% of his party rejected him in Iowa.
CNN did polling last night and asked voters in Iowa "why" they opted for each of the three leading candidates..
Ron Paul...."True Conservative"
The GOP is split between these motivating factors.
Establsihment/Strategists - Romney
Christian Right plus Christian right TPers - Santorum
Tea Party Libertarians - Ron Paul
Romney can't get the TP vote...at least not enthusiastically, and enthusiasm matters.
The problem is that with three candidates running so closely, each within reach of the nomination, means they will continue to rip into one another
starting with the New Hampshire Primary debate on the 7th.
And it is not just the top 3 who are going to come out swinging, Newt Gingrich made it clear last night that he is taking off the gloves.
Romney will have to spend much more money to secure the nomination...Less money for the general election.
Ron Paul will not go quitely away and it appears the Media has finally been forced to pay attention to him. Expect him to get prominent air-time in
Newt will be throwing punches in all directions.
Santorum has to pivet to an economic sales pitch going forward if he is to survive since he can't rely on the Christian Right vote in states like New
If Romney gets the Nomination, He can count on establishment votes, plus the "hold your nose and vote" crowd who just wants Obama out...but he can't
secure the independants who decide elections...they need to be motivated to go to the Polls.
If Ron Paul gets the nomination he will pull independants and TPers, but lose GOP establishment thoroughly due to his indiscriminate dislike of
Welfare...not just citizens, but corporate as well
and his hatred of the Military Industrial Complex...Romney, Santorum, Newt etc are hammering the
Everyone else will be gone soon.
Romney looks like the Nominee to me, but he will take a beating before then and when he does get the Nomination ...then he has two choices after the
Pivot to the center...to get independants and hope the far right will hang in there just to oust President Obama.
Stay to the right and secure the base...but make himself an easy target for President Obama.
Doesn't seem likely he will pull it off after battling the contenders over the next couple months.
edit on 4-1-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)