New Activity at Mt. Rainier Confirmed to Be Seismic (...or ICE?), Right here on ATS!

reply to post by radpetey


No, I don't think they mentioned the elevation. It was definetely summer in a high meadow, when filmed, but I'm not certain if it was 2009 or 2010.

reply to post by Olivine


Very cool...thanks for the link! I live about an hours drive from the ski resort on Baker. As the crow flies, it is much less. I'll have to look into it, that would be fun.

Mount Rainier has extensive hydrothermal features. It would be great if we could find any realtime (or near) data sources for it.

@TA...sorry, I forgot about trying to find the info on RCS. Any luck? I can still ask too.

You can usually tell if they are quakes or avalanches from the signatures. Avalanches tend to last longer for one and the trace is erratic vs the comparable clear 'diamond' shape of a quake. Also, an avalanche tends to have a build up, where a quake starts with a sharp line.

There have been a few more slides up there the past day, but I guess the snow level got up to 7,000 ft the past couple days so that would certainly explain it. I also noticed a nice mico quake near STAR a bit ago.

The other 'ice quakes' seem to definitely be calming down.

I just noticed that the PNSN has listed 5 new earthquakes for Mt. Rainier for today. Link to quake page

Finally, I have figured out how to load the short band stations in GEE, and so I have been watching STAR, RCS, & RCM the past few hours (yes, I have been too stubborn to ask for help in loading them).

I saw the 16:22:54 UTC quake (listed on link above)hit all 3 stations:
1) If they are going to list that event, there should be at least 3 more to be added shortly, that looked identical since that time. (Max amplitude was +/-3 microns on RCS station)
2) I'm no expert, but I have been diligently digesting all of the help given in this forum. The activity on Mt. Rainier sure looks like a swarm of tiny earthquakes to me. Sprinkled with a lot of very sharp "snaps" which I am guessing are the "ice quakes".
3) I read westcoast's email with the geologists, where they stated they interpret a lot of this as coming from the Winthrop glacier. That would be inbetween RCM & RCS stations, if I've got the maps oriented correctly. From watching GEE, I would agree that at least half of the events happen in that vicinity. But the other half seem to show up on STAR or OBSR first (other side of the mountain).

In any event, this is fun to watch.
Oh yeah, a question. When they give a depth of 0 km, is that sea level? Because sea level at Mt. Rainier is 4+ km below the summit. So are these quakes occurring at the surface of the mountain or 4 km down? (shuffles off after confusing herself)

This image is from the PNSN blog found here Repeating Earthquakes on Mt. Rainier--are glaciers the culprit?



It shows representative signals from Camp Schurman (UW.RCS..EHZ)

This points to changes in glacier behavior as a likely culprit.

And then, further in the article...

There are many other arguments against a neat and tidy classification as a glacial source. In addition, hydrothermal activity can generate repeating earthquakes, as can the movement of magma prior to and during eruptions. The possibility of a hydrothermal or magmatic source cannot yet be completely eliminated in this case.

ETA: Could this blog entry have been prompted by member westcoast's email communications?
I think it is great when civil servants do just that--serve the public.

reply to post by Olivine


Great find!!! Thank you, I hadn't caught that one.

I have to say that perhaps the only way that I may have had anything to do with prompting is, is by letting them know that the general public is interested in knowing about it. I learned all I knew about it from them, hence why the same info is in the blog. At least now I can reference a source!!!

@TA...I noticed the first image in the blog states it includes the info on the stations, but the image isn't available right now. Hopefull that will be fixed, for I think it has the info you want!

Again, I am impressed with the amount of info they are willing to share and how quickly they do it. Also, that they openly admit to not being sure, but present the best answer and why.

Funny, given the title of this thread, it's weird how the most likely explanation for these events ends up being seismicity caused by ice.

I wonder if there has ever been a situation where glacier cap movements end up uncorking a volcano inadvertently?

Originally posted by Olivine
I just noticed that the PNSN has listed 5 new earthquakes for Mt. Rainier for today. Link to quake page

And now those 5 quakes are missing from the page above....poof.

Maybe they were receiving too many inquiries from folks worried about the appearant uptick in seismicity(compared to their stated monthly average), so they retracted the quakes since they are so small?

Hey guys ! did ya all miss me ???


to be blunt ,, it would not surprise me in the least to see MT Rainer blow...

and i tell you why .. Mt st Helens has had her big day in back in 1980 when she blew much larger then the Guy at the USGS expected and she took Mr johnson with her when she blew .... RIP .

when Rainer blows i think that will prob be a vei 5 or 6 . iv been having volcano eruption dreams on and off for about 5 years now...

keep up the good work guys .. id keep an close eye on things my self IF i had a normal connection,, but sadly since i moved im now stuck with a cell phone as a modem and im not too happy about it , but its better then none i guess ....

Edited to add the USGS S weekly update ... according to them everything is still within normal backround activity ...

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Activity Update: All volcanoes in the Cascade Range are at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry Volcano, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake volcano, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

www.ess.washington.edu...
wow i whole heartly apologize for this last link since IT HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED SINCE LAST NOV ... wtf is up with that and why are they sleeping on the job .. who wants to email these guys and tell them whats up?

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Funny, given the title of this thread, it's weird how the most likely explanation for these events ends up being seismicity caused by ice.

I wonder if there has ever been a situation where glacier cap movements end up uncorking a volcano inadvertently?

TA....I think THIS is the multi-million dollar question. I am sure the answer is: No one really knows.

BUT...think of all that incredible weight....and the possible displacement any shift in it may cause.

I recently read that a glacier can cause up to a mag 5 earthquake!! Now THAT is a lot of force.



The more I think about it all, if one of the things being ruled out is magma intrusion......does the magma intrusion and uplift to the South near the Sisters have a possible correlation? I don't see how anyone could say no with absolute sureness.

ETA: Ashla..I am with you too on not being surprised with an eruption. It is an active volcano, and historically, it wouldn't be surprising if she erupted anytime soon. Here is the PNSN graph:

[scroll right]





ETA: For those that didn't get this before, here is a link to the : near real-time picture of the summit

Just wanted to say hey and happy new year to everyone! And also to thank the Op for this thread as it is very interesting and informative. I moved to the mid-west from southwestern WA back in August but still have friends and loved ones in the state between Seattle, WA and Vancouver, WA USA...(not to be confused with Vancouver BC which is north of Seattle, and Vancouver, WA is south of Seattle, just north of Portland, Or). I will be checking in often and may ask questions now and then as I am still learning alot of the terminology and scientific details regarding volcanoes and EQ's! Love and peace to you all in the new year!

Okay, I've been watching stations STAR, RCS, and RCM in GEE for 24 of the past 36 hours. (I know, no life, right? )

It looks to me like the most consistant "multiplet" quakes have been happening every 20.5 minutes. Sometimes only a 19 minute interval, sometimes as long as 21.5 minutes, but on average every 20.5 minutes. Weird. (Check it out for yourselves--begin with the event at 12:09 UTC--and then count the minutes to the next same sized event)
And they are identical: 3 microns per second on RCS, 1.5 mic/sec on RCM, and 800 nm/s on STAR...every +/-20.5 minutes. Same shape, too. Every time. (There are other, even more tiny events interspersed on the seismos too, but I've been concentrating on this particular set--they are obvious)

If this is the result of a glacier, as the folks at PNSN are leaning toward, that would mean that the bottom of the glacier is a homogenous surface grinding over some "bump" every 20 minutes. But I thought the bottoms of glaciers were full of different sized pebbles, stones, rocks and boulders? I don't get how the seismic signature could be so rhythmic? I guess I'm just having trouble visualizing it.

My non-geologist opinion is that this swarm is hydrothermal. Like a geyser. Some portion of the mountains' plumbing system has hit certain conditions (temp, melt water, etc) which are allowing some cavity, pipe, dike, conduit (whatever shape it is) to heat until it reachs boiling . "Snap", it explodes. ("explode" is probably much too strong a descriptor--these events are pretty small) Then it takes 20 minutes for the water to percolate back down to its reservoir to begin heating up again.

It could explain why the quakes are identical, happening in the same locations, over and over again. What do you think? Tear up my hypothesis. I can take it.

reply to post by Olivine


Damn you sure did your homework. my question is it still occurring? and it it increasing ?

reply to post by Cyanhide

Yep, still happening. Another set will show up on the links I posted above at 20:57:40 UTC.
Actually, this "event" is a little bigger than normal--same shape, but the amplitudes are almost double. (still really small--well lower than a magnitude 1.0)




ETA: The "expected", every 20.5 minute event happened at 20:53 UTC, just as scheduled. This 20:57 quake just messed up my nice theory.

Originally posted by Olivine
reply to post by Cyanhide

 

Yep, still happening. Another set will show up on the links I posted above at 20:57:40 UTC.
Actually, this "event" is a little bigger than normal--same shape, but the amplitudes are almost double. (still really small--well lower than a magnitude 1.0)

edit on 1/8/2012 by Olivine because: (no reason given)

ETA: The "expected", every 20.5 minute event happened at 20:53 UTC, just as scheduled. This 20:57 quake just messed up my nice theory.

edit on 1/8/2012 by Olivine because: to add some infor

edit on 1/8/2012 by Olivine because: spelling

When reading these times the first thing that popped in my head is labor contractions. sadly there is no button to push to help the pain.. well it's a beautiful day here, I have a good view of Rainier I will try to remember to take some pics when me and my wife take our 21 month old to the park

reply to post by Olivine


Excellent. We are thinking along the same lines here. I noticed a mark pattern from the begining, but it seems to be getting more of a rythm now and a bit larger sig. This would explain the hz, the duration, the size and repetive location.

In my last correspondence with PNSN I asked about the hydrothermal option. It seems more likely to me with the timing of this event...and they said that yes, it was a possibility so it is still something they are considering.

I have had GEE up (other than when it went down ) since the 30th of dec. Of course, I haven't been watching it that whole time. I have been laid up recovering from hip surgery but I am getting around more now.

Keep watching! I don't think she's done yet.

Here's an example of the current RCM seismo. I think it clearly shows the pattern:

reply to post by westcoast


Oh westcoast, I hope you are recovering speedily from your surgery. Best wishes.

On the Rainier front, I'm glad you didn't find my idea looney. When I started paying closer attention to the timing of the quakes, the 1st thing I thought of was Old Faithful. (But i certainly don't think there is water bursting high into the air on Mt. Rainier!)

Something else I read today made me more skeptical of the glacier explaination. While studying the "repeating earthquake" swarm of May-June 2010, the geologists proposed that the cause was Spring melt waters lubricating the glacier/mountain interface. But that isn't the seasonal scenario for this swarm. I'll go dig around for the link to that abstract... Here it is.

It is also written by Kate Allstadt, the same author of the Seismo Blog article at PNSN.org

reply to post by Olivine


Great find! You're good at that.

I brought that up too....only thing is the snow level was up to 7,000 ft for a day or two last week, so we are having unseasonally warm weather. BUT...if it were just a condition of a 'spring thaw', than why doesn't it happen every spring? 2010 certainly wasn't warmer than other years.

PNSN acknowledges that though, as is why they still allow for other theories. I don't think they have decided on anything.

I understand the muliplets. The concept of something 'scraping' over and over again in the same spot causing all these similar sized/shaped signals in the same spot and depth. BUT...you point out what I think is the biggest flaw: repitition/rthym. I would think, that if this were from a glacier stick-sliping, that sucker would be all over the place as far as the timing goes. I mean we are talking about all SORTS of aspects here: temperature, rain, weight, dispersion, ground contour, glacier contour, sediment.....I mean, how could the quakes be so regular???

I dunno....

reply to post by westcoast


I dunno either...but it great fun trying to figure it out.

Mr. Vidale has posted an update on the activity. Mount Rainier popping away

He writes:

This yammering has been non-stop for several days, and can actually interfere with monitoring the seismic network, as events are frequently triggering the earthquake detection software, filling the queue to process, and fraying the nerves of our analysts.

"Yammering" ,that makes me giggle.

reply to post by Olivine


How do you find all these things?? I have spent the past hour on that website and missed the update.

So I coppied you and went back several days and counted. I had noticed a definite pattern emerging but hadn't bothered to do the math. They started out every 18-20 minutes on the 6th (mostly 19). On the 7th it went up to 20-23 (mostly 21) and today it has been mainly 21 with some 22 and 23s thrown in. It doesn't miss a beat. That's the troubling part. It hasn't missed ONCE....I just don't see how it can be glacial.

reply to post by westcoast

Nice job going back and evaluating the interval rates. If the time between quakes get longer as the days go by, maybe that would indicate this current swarm is losing steam (pun intended ).

It does look to me like the snaps and pops that have been occurring inbetween the 20 min-cycle quakes have been getting a little bigger. What do you think? (click to enlarge)