New Activity at Mt. Rainier Confirmed to Be Seismic (...or ICE?), Right here on ATS!

Have the seismos been doing anything funny since the last update?

Originally posted by Mkoll
Have the seismos been doing anything funny since the last update?

The webicorders are hard to read, because there is a lot of man made activity happening too. But the quakes, or whatever they are, continue.

pele.ess.washington.edu:16017...

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

Originally posted by Mkoll
Have the seismos been doing anything funny since the last update?

The webicorders are hard to read, because there is a lot of man made activity happening too. But the quakes, or whatever they are, continue.

pele.ess.washington.edu:16017...

edit on Mon Jan 2nd 2012 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

yeah that graph looks like road traffic, is it near a highway?
heres a comparison graph showing what road traffic looks like from Geonet, this is on the road to a skifield.

more types here

reply to post by muzzy


lol, if you look at comparison graph chart, and see the one it points to as "earthquake," and then look at the RCS webicorder, there's plenty of them in there that look just like it. So what's your take on this muzzy? Look like a duck to you?

No, I don't believe there's any road noise near the three stations up on the top. Not much up there but snow.

You can tell by looking at the past three days when the weather cleared up and then got nasty again. A lof of the messy stuff is wind, etc. As I mentioned earlier, the typical ice quakes also picked up with the weather.

However, the lower hz higher micron 'events' have continued, and I think grown in size. I have seen a clear trend over the past few days of just below 2.0 mic/sec to to right around 2.0, just over two and now today there were dozens around three. Another thing I noticed was that some of the bigger ones are now being picked up on FMS which is further down the mountain.

I am in the process now of reading some new information I obtained on all of this. I will share it with you when I have a better understanding, but I will tell you this:

There was a similar 'event' in May/June of 2010 that lasted for over two weeks. These were studied closely and the event right now is also being watched and studied by the same scientists. Thier best educated guess is that these are coming from the glacier for various reasons that I am learning about. I will share those reasons with you as I figure them out.

For me, the biggest thing is that this is basically an un-known and we are learning about it at pretty much the same rate that the geologists are.....as it is happening. There have been hundreds of (ice)quakes so far with this event. The hz is in the same range as harmonic tremor, but behaves a bit differently. These quakes are NOT being recorded on the public because there are SO many of them, they are so small and they think they are glacial.

SO...keep watching. No reason to sound any alarms yet. Hopefully these ARE from the glacier and are NOT indicative of a pending eruption.

reply to post by westcoast


Looking forward to hearing what new info you've got Tara! I'm obviously nowhere close to you guys in the PNW, but nothing on FE interests me more than all the goings on Washington State has! The payoff for such beauty I suppose!

No real roads with major traffic. Highway 410 is still open( closes in winter time). Pretty heavy winds down here though..

Intersting, i have a house in Washington and I have been here since May and none of the major news networks have been running any stories on this topic. Now i admit i am not here all the time but no stories running. I wonder why they would not run a story. I was here in 1980 when Mt Saint Helens blew (May 18) and most of the ash was dumped on the Cascade Mountains and then in Ellensburg and Yakima in eastern washington. Really didnt cause too many problems because Mt Saint Helens is located in a low populated area. As your post describes Mt Rainier would be a whole different elephant in the room with over 3 million people living in its shadow. Good post i am going to look into this and talk to friends at the University of Washington.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by muzzy

 

lol, if you look at comparison graph chart, and see the one it points to as "earthquake," and then look at the RCS webicorder, there's plenty of them in there that look just like it. So what's your take on this muzzy? Look like a duck to you?

yeah there are a few that have the snub nose look of an earthquake close to the station that recorded it.
Seeing as westcoast mentioned Glaciers I had a look on pnsn and they are showing some quakes down to 0.3 magnitude, so these ones you are talking about must be really really small, ie like a Glacier moving across the rock. Just a big 1 ton boulder scraping on solid rock as it is dragged along by the ice monster would make a trace on a highly sensitive siesmo.
I think its a glacier moving, Rainier is surrounded by heaps of them ( zoom in on map/terrain to 1km scale)

Man, I sure hope that is wind noise, because it is looking an awful lot like tremor:

pele.ess.washington.edu:16017...

@Muzzy and True American.

I asked about glacial slip on page 2 and PuterMan answered on page 3. Personally I am still going with that....
just my 2 bit unqualified opinion.
Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by TrueAmerican
It could have been wind. Your link was for Camp Schurman, right? That's on the NE side of the Mountain at 9510'. I could only find current data for Camp Muir (SE side of Rainier, at 10188' elevation).
Around the time of your post, max win speeds were calming down from 31 to 15 mph.
Here is a link

I've been watching the CC.OBSR..BHZ station on the NW side of the mountain (elev8364'--but about twice as far away from the summit as the above stations) in GEE. The amplitude got up to +10/-18 microns/sec. last evening.

reply to post by angelchemuel

Sorry I missed that, the term "ice quakes" threw me off, I didn't read all the pages
I was thinking the glacier riding over the rock rather than the actual ice cracking.
Having now read the scientist's reply too, then that's probably what it is/was.
I only looked at RSC and over 3 graphs/days and there seemed to be an increase in activity during the day time 05:00 to 15:00 hrs

reply to post by muzzy


Thanks muzzy. I can't read charts, I just asked out of my understanding things, followed by my....shall we leave it at gut instinct!

Glacial rainbows
Jane

Muzzy (and previously Puterman), you pretty much nailed it. As far as what the general belief amongst the geologists at PNSN think. They believe it is coming from the base of the Winthrop glacier, which is on the North side of the Volcano.

So here's the scoop:

The last 'event' happened back in June/May of 2010 and lasted for about three weeks. It created over 4,500 low-frequency events, or what they call 'muliplets'. These occured near the summit of Mount Rainier on the Winthrop Glacier (about a km above Camp Shurman), and most events whithin each multiplet happened at regular intervals.

So to better explain these multiplets, I have obtained a graph of the current 'event'.....which is demonstrating all the same characteristics (so far) as the event back in 2010. It appears to be in the same area, though some of the quakes (at least to me) seem to be migrating a bit:

Each circle represents an earthquake, each line is essentially the same quake happening in the same place over and over again.

Credit PNSN

And this is what some of them look like up close:



Credit PNSN

Rainier has the largest amount of glacial ice than any other mountain in the US. It is unique. That it is an active volcano posing the greatest threat in the US also makes it unique. Obviously, the mountain is continuously studied in an effort to make sure it isn't showing any signs of eruption, but also to try and look for any changes or possible signs of future eruption. There aren't a whole lot of other volcanos to compare it to. The only two known to exhibit similar behavior was Mount Baker and the one that erupted last year in iceland. (the one I can't pronounce.... )

Because of the behavior of these quakes and the low frequency there has been a lot of study put into it make sure it ISN'T harmonic tremor. They do NOT believe it is. Using all the equipment, studies and techniques known to them (PNSN), their summation of the event in 2010 is that it was a repeated basal-slip of the Winthrop glacier and possibly other glaciers. It may be weather-related but they have not been able to confirm that so the other theories is the spring thaw or hydrothermal activity. Again, they DO NOT KNOW for sure. It is speculation based on scientific knowledge.

Since this event (so far) seems to be a similar one, they also feel it is originating from a stick-slip motion (ice grinding over rock). They are constantly trying to rule out volcanic activity vs. glacial, but obviously it is not easy. They use (mainly) the three stations at the top (RCS/RCM/STAR) and then the next three further out to help determine the size/type and origin of the events. It is very difficult to get a good location since the events are so small (-1 to 0.5) and it is traveling through a whole lotta ice.

What I know is that this series started on the 28th, got much stronger on the 30th and has created hundreds (if not thousands by now) quakes. They are VERY small and at a low frequency. They seem to be coming from the Winthrop glacier and at this point, the geologists at the PNSN are attributing it to the stick-slip motion of the Glacier but are watching it closely.

If you have any questions, I will try and get them answered.

Of note, it seems to have calmed down in the last 24 hrs. This also happened back in 2010....a period of lessening that then picked up again for another week, so don't be surprised if that happens.

My general take on this is that it is pretty darn cool to get to be studying this somewhat unknown process at the same time as the geologists. Based on what I have read, it seems very likely it is originating from the glacier. My biggest question right now is why. If it is hydrothermal, that may be the more interesting aspect of this, rather than the quakes. That this recent series is happening in January may point their research more in that general direction, but we HAVE had a warmer season than normal, so the 'spring thaw' theory may be relevant.



ETA: I am sorry that I can't link refrences. This info is coming from a paper that is not yet published so for obvious reasons, I can't share it here, but have permission to talk about what I have learned.

Hmm. Well PuterMan, the crew is dissenting. What are we to do?

Do we silence and go with the flow?

No ducks allowed here.

These do exhibit some unique characteristics, although the 3-4 Hz centers, shape of the waveforms, and presence of what appear to be P and S waves make us think quakes.

The "multiplets" are suspiciously close in amplitude. This suggests a repetitive process of some kind is taking place. And wc, I have to disagree that they are getting bigger at the moment. Been watching GEE on this, and the amplitudes have actually gone down from a day or two ago. RCS was showing 8 microns/sec peaks on these, and now that's down to 2 microns/sec.

These things are enough to cast serious doubt on them being quakes. When quakes happen, they are never this suspiciously close in amplitude. With actual seismic quakes, the amplitudes are all over the place and vary widely. But these are just too close in amplitude, repetitively. The danger here however, lies in the problem of differentiation, should a real seismic swarm occur. It would be real easy to get complacent on the part of vulcanologists, and miss a quake swarm through these events.

PM, it might be helpful to all of us if the next time a known seismic event occurs there, we pull the frequency content so we are clear of the differences. Maybe the quakes there center around 4-6 Hz, for example.

Might be interesting to see the frequency content of this 1.9 magnitude event:
www.pnsn.org...

And note the waveform differences, compared to what we are seeing now. That event was very near the peak back in November.


Also, as another issue, wc it would be real helpful if you could find out the answer to this question from PNSN:

Is the max amplitude at station RCS around 9 microns/sec? (In other words, after that does it clip?)

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Oh I don't think anyone should be 'silent'.... I think a very unique process is taking place up there and the bottom line is that while there are good theories, nobody knows for sure what it is.

Yesterday I said that they seemed to be getting stronger, but I agree with you TA that today they have decreased in both size and rate.

I should also mention that similar events happened back in 1990 and 1998, but these are not studied. I don't know the exact dates. I did a search on USGS for quakes above 2.5 and there were only a few whithin 1 km of the dome. They occured in 1990, 1998 and a couple of months ago. There were a couple in 2010 also, but not right on top of the mountain. It's enough to make me wonder if there could be a connection.

Anyways, since I am not nearly as knowledgable as you or PM or Muzzy or several others in analyzing the info, I would be really interested in seeing what else you can come up with.

I know one of the problems is lack of equipment up on the mountain and the unique feature of being on top of glaciers...the ice messes with the signals so it has to be accounted for. I dunno

I say keep watching, talking and learning. I'll pass on anything I find out.

Originally posted by westcoast
I know one of the problems is lack of equipment up on the mountain and the unique feature of being on top of glaciers...the ice messes with the signals so it has to be accounted for. I dunno

I think the seismometers are bolted into the (very fractured and brittle) rock. They are probably covered with snow currently, but not by any glaciers.
Here is a pic of Camp Schurman
And this is Camp Muir
Finally, St. Andrew's Rock

It helps me put the seismos into context if I have a visual of the area.

reply to post by westcoast

Each circle represents an earthquake, each line is essentially the same quake happening in the same place over and over again.

Thats interesting, like there is a sharp rock outcrop or something that the glacier is moving over and perhaps inside the ice are some big rocks, and they are hitting each other?

reply to post by TrueAmerican

No ducks allowed here.

Wot no ducks? Actually they are ducks and that is confirmed. They are seismic events and not ice-quakes. Seismic event does not mean earthquake alone. Any vibration of the earth is a seismic event. Basically the glacier is going for a jolly and creating many rumbles on the way down.