What happened to all of 2011's US Dollar Bears?

The USD is over 81 now and the Euro has made a new low for the year. Where are all of the US Dollar bears who, from the Spring thru Fall (esp at the 73-75 low range), were calling for an imminent dollar collapse?

Well it nearly collapsed.

The dollar WILL collapse. Simple as that. It's just the timing that was wrong.

Right now, the US is the hooker that has crabs and Europe/Japan is the hooker that has AIDS so for now it's all good... until the hooker with AIDS is dead or have cured AIDS, then it'll be another ball game.

It's just a question of eh, I've got a big problem, but watch over there! The distraction only lasts a limited length of time.

reply to post by CosmicCitizen


You do know why and how the dollar is kept high right? The gov't is more in debt than ever and there are more greenbacks in circulation than ever. As long as they keep printing money and allow the debt limit to be raised, you might as well call your one dollar bill Master.

You need to understand that the USD is measured against other currencies. Predicting which currency will collapse first has been difficult. The USD is soaring because the EURO and the EU as a whole is on the verge of collapse. In total though, 2011 saw record debts added to the world by both individuals and nations. The system has collapsed, it just takes time for the tsunami-wave of debt to wash ashore. The 'social-contract' as progressive like to put it when describing currency has been broken, at some point the crisis will become large enough that the 'way things are' will cease.

The bubble will bust when you stop invading countries and taking peoples resources. You need to rise up, take back you'r government and find out a better, fairer solution to distribute wealth, this way you're country wouldnt have- I mean want to, depend on invading and letting corps run your country.


UK maybe fuked, but at least we're cutting back on spending, its a start. Now we just need to get rid of EU and stop bumming tyrants in america which just drain our money so that we can become Independent again, like any country we have the people, education and will - we just need to get rid of the people at the top first

reply to post by ararisq

I know that the dollar is inter-related and that is why I was bullish back then on ATS for a move to at least 81 and possibly as high as 100 before it is all over (possibly even parity to the euro currency). But, like the correction in Gold (I called for a drop to at least 1450 and possibly 1300~), it is temporary as fiat money will eventually be replaced...with a more sound, international monetary system (it is inevitable). However, "timing is everything."

reply to post by CosmicCitizen


As some others have already hit on, not all of the Worlds top currencies can collapse at once.. it's all relative. So in the case of the USD as compared to other currencies, obviously the Euro is performing far, far worse.

reply to post by Vitchilo

The dollar WILL collapse. Simple as that. It's just the timing that was wrong.

Actually, I'm not so sure anymore. The Chinese yuan is artificially manipulated and the world market is demanding they correct it. This would benefit the dollar dramatically. The Euro is crashing, the Middle East is on the verge of even more war with Iran and Syria, while Iraq is tied directly to the dollar.

It looks to me like the dollar has survived the worst of things and is in prime position to persevere and remain the world's premier currency. It is the best of the worst at the moment, but with nothing better to replace it, then it is actually in a pretty good position.

I'm still buying my Iraqi Dinar, just in case it eventually revalues. I'm still concerned about a BRIC alliance, but it hasn't materialized as of yet.

There is still a chance of a global collapse, and then nothing is safe, but short of a global collapse, the USD seems to be the safest bet on the table.

reply to post by getreadyalready

The Chinese yen is artificially manipulated and the world market is demanding they correct it.

China uses the Yuan, Japan uses the Yen.

reply to post by Rockdisjoint


Corrected it.

Typing and thinking too fast as I also attempt to pretend to work, LOL!

Thanks.

No, not everyone can fall at one time. It's just not how things are usually done.

reply to post by getreadyalready

I think that you hit it: the status of the dollar as "world's reserve currency". As long as that is the status quo then it is all relative and there will be a flight to dollars when there is a financial crisis but if we lose that status and the world's financial crisis is centered in this country (vis a vis Europe, Greece, etc) then all bets are off.

Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
The USD is over 81 now and the Euro has made a new low for the year. Where are all of the US Dollar bears who, from the Spring thru Fall (esp at the 73-75 low range), were calling for an imminent dollar collapse?

edit on 29-12-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)

If a dollar is still worth less than a Euro you might want to hold off on the chest thumping until that point..........

Their "new low" is still better than our high, my friend.

reply to post by kinnerarity


Yes it is...but it is the relative direction since the lows in the dollar and the highs in the euro that I was commenting on. Still you are correct the euro is worth more in exchange than the dollar (altho we will probably see 1:1 parity again). Makes one wonder what all of the concern over the euro decline is about (if not price level then it must be rate of change).

reply to post by kinnerarity


That's not how the value of a currency is determined. The exchange rate (the difference between currencies) is a balanced act of keeping currencies relative to the value of their exports to specific trade partners. For Europe they require a slightly stronger currency (optimal exchange is 1.35/1.50) in order to balance the economy. This offsets the effect of higher costs from imports somewhat, relatively Europeans still pay more per items as a percentage of their total income.

What it doesn't mean? It doesn't mean a Euro is "worth more" unless you move Euro's into America. And even then, it's only relative to what region of the US and how much you actually make.

The 'value' of a currency is demand. As long as there is demand, the currency has value. An example, China's Yuan has no "value" .. it's an artificial currency made by command from the Chinese central bank. Whereas the USA, Japan, UK, EU and many others are all exchangeable, meaning the 'value' can be made as a representative to swings based on demand. The Yuan cannot.

That means so long as America is a Reserve currency the currency cannot collapse. Demand is to high. Europe's balance comes from it's inability to Monetize, which artificially lowers the value of the currency .. they rely on economic output to place their value (demand). If the ECB has to monetize, which they've begun to, it will decrease the value of the Euro and raise the relative value of every other exchangeable currency.