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Why is weather so hard to predict?

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posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 02:22 PM
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With so many technical advances at thier disposal, why can't Meterologists predict weather and track storms better than they do?

It is all mathmatics and formulas isn't it? They know wind speeds, track ocean currents, jet streams, hot and cold fronts. They measure wind speed,surface and air temps, and barometric pressure. So why can't they forecast better than they do?

What are some of the factors that make this so difficult? I have heard things like sun spots, pollution and oddities like volcanic eruptions can change the forcast, but can't they take these into account? It seems they are wrong as often as they are right. Sometimes our lives depend on those reports.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 02:30 PM
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Well they predicted Ivan's path over the last few days pretty well. It looked a few days ago that it was going to hit us directly, but the meteorologist predicted that it would move up north west. It did just that yesterday afternoon, and we were spared of hurricane force winds...



But Charley with Tampa and Orlando on the other hand.......... That's a whole different story...


[edit on 9-9-2004 by TheBandit795]



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 02:38 PM
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Probaly because weather is always changing. Meteorologists guess the weather. It can change.


E_T

posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 03:56 PM
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Because weather is nonlinear system, even small change in start values can change to dramatic diffference in results.

Good example from here in Finland: (from this summer)
All models predicted good and warm weather would continue couple weeks but then just small low pressure area came from south-east and flushed those models down from toilet and caused record-class floods.

So predicting weather accurately requires extremely accurate models and values.
It's exactly like x^2 or x^3 (and x^y).
Just put first 2 in place of x and then 2.2 and see how result starts changing.




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