I love ATS.

And just how long were you all whining and crying, "US out of Iraq!!!"? And when the US leaves, and things go down the toilet, you're whining, "Hey, why aren't you doing something??"

Sorry 'bout that. I think everyone knows/knew that as soon as our boots were clear of Iraqi sand the religious war would spark.

I asked my friend what he thinks will happen. He's been working with these people for about 20 years.

1. The current Iraqi government will quickly unravel over the next couple of weeks or months.

2. Allawi's al-Iraqiya List Party will, of necessity, be forced into a temporary coalition with the Kurds as Maliki's Sunni Targeting Apparatus continues to round up "Baathists". Maliki will try to buy off the Kurds in order to keep this from happening...possibly "giving" them Kirkuk (and telling them to militarily hold it against Sunni encroachment).

2.5 There is a 50/50 chance that Maliki will be assassinated (if my read on regime security capability is as I remember it from a few months ago in Baghdad). ISF in the Green Zone are simply incompetent and cannot guarantee the safety of the Prime Minister and his inner circle.

3. The current sectarian struggle will devolve into a bloody campaign of Sunni/Shia tit for tat, reminiscent of the bad old days (2005-2008), except that...we won't be there.

4. As things go to #, the moderately incompetent Sunni former-regime leadership will (over a period of time) inflict an ass whipping on the totally incompetent Shia-led ISF. Sadr's Mahdi Army forces will find this out when they actually have to volunteer to go out West or North of Baghdad. There were reasons that the minority dominated the majority for all those decades...and that blood will tell. The Sunnis were always more bloodthirsty and comprised the professional & technocratic leadership of Old Iraq. In the long term, I believe that they will reclaim that status.

5. The M1 tanks we have given them will be penny-packeted out in regime-survival deployments. About a battalion will wind up conducting Praetorian Guard point defense in Baghdad. Another will get ordered to sally up the road one morning to a place like Fallujah, where Iraqi army incompetence will be exposed to the full light of day. The other two battalions will squat combat-ineffective at Besmaya, where they will do no harm. This, due to simple maintenance attrition and the fact that 1/3 to 1/2 of the Iraqi Army is on "leave" on any given day. The one thing they will not be used for is to actually guarantee the Iranian border or possession of the southern oil fields. The Iranians will have full access to our M1s and take one or two home.

6. We will probably never wind up delivering promised F-16s to the current Iraqi regime. We will more than likely wind up withdrawing contractor support for the armor they have already purchased.

7. If the Maliki government survives, they will be offered (and attempt to buy) any Russian or Chinese equipment they desire within the next two years. The Iranians will actually serve as the governor on that engine of Iraqi appetite for military hardware.

8. The country is headed for a Tripartite State solution. The central dispute is over who controls what oil fields. The Shia keep their southern oil fields (even if it means accepting an Iranian Anschluss stretching from from Amarah to Basrah). The Kurds keep theirs (for now). The Sunnis are # out of luck, so must fight to get a slice of the pie (and control of oil bearing sands). To do this, the Sunnis must fight to control (or share) Baghdad. Both Sunni and Shia will attempt to accommodate the Kurds as they lock jaws on each other's throats. Neither faction has the military ass to take on Kurdistan until the power-sharing issue is settled between them. They will prefer to tussle over Baghdad and the Mid-Euphrates (and kick the Kirkuk oil fields can down the road).

9. When the latest chapter of power sharing is finally settled, the Iraqi government will eventually cajole the Turks into joining them in a hammer-anvil type incursion into Kurdistan.

10. If the Tripartite state emerges from the dust, the Shia Mid-Euphrates and SE (Basrah) will become an Iranian rump-state.

(11.) Extra Credit: DoS's Fortress Mordor on al-Kindi Street will continue to be the world's most expensive arcade shooting gallery, with everyone taking pot shots at the only visible vestige of the US occupation.

Nah...I'm not cynical.