Solar Activity Watch 2012

reply to post by murkraz


Good post. The Earth clearly dodged that one.

The sunspots are pointing away from us.

If you go to Wikipedia they even have a picture of the sunspots way back in

September 1859 - The Carrington Event. Now we know what to look for.

Originally posted by Eurisko2012
reply to post by murkraz

 

Good post. The Earth clearly dodged that one.

The sunspots are pointing away from us.

If you go to Wikipedia they even have a picture of the sunspots way back in

September 1859 - The Carrington Event. Now we know what to look for.

That sunspot looks almost like the new one this morning.

"New sunspot 1413 is emerging in the shape of a ring"
www.spaceweather.com...

The Ring sunspot 1413 and sunspot 1410 above it will be earth facing soon.

Originally posted by Cyprex

Originally posted by Eurisko2012
reply to post by murkraz

 

Good post. The Earth clearly dodged that one.

The sunspots are pointing away from us.

If you go to Wikipedia they even have a picture of the sunspots way back in

September 1859 - The Carrington Event. Now we know what to look for.

That sunspot looks almost like the new one this morning.

"New sunspot 1413 is emerging in the shape of a ring"
www.spaceweather.com...

The Ring sunspot 1413 and sunspot 1410 above it will be earth facing soon.

I don't want to hear that!

We aren't suppose to get blasted until December 21, 2012.

I guess we can thank Carrington for giving us that rough sketch.

We can also thank Wikipedia for making it easy for us to find.
--------
Wait , i just checked it out. That's close but no cigar. It's too small.

I hope sunspot 1410 will stay calm this time.

TextA Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen billowing away off the northwest limb this morning. This could be related to activity surrounding Sunspot 1410 which is now out of direct Earth view. Image is below.

source(www.solarham.com...

reply to post by Eurisko2012


Great link! Thanks!
I heard 2012 is the year of huge solar flares. The aurora should light up like
a Christmas tree.

Well this looks interesting. Hopefully she stays nice and quiet. One question though, what's a beta-gamma" magnetic field? And is this normal?

For the second day in a row, sunspot AR1416 has doubled in size: movie. Moreover, it has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any such eruptions this weekend would be Earth directed as the sunspot turns to face our planetText
[/spaceweather.com...quote]

edit on 11-2-2012 by Jerisa because: sp

beta-gamma: A sunspot group that is bipolar but which is sufficiently complex that no single, continuous line can be drawn between spots of opposite polarities.Text

ell check!

edit on 11-2-2012 by Jerisa because: nvm found the definition.

It is normal, sunspot 1416 has growth pretty quick. Always good to keep an eye on those ones.

Beta-gamma is a classification that encompasses a group of sunspots that is bipolar but is complex enough so that a single line cannot be put between the opposite polarities.

Here are the different types for your own analyzation of sunspot regions.

alpha: A unipolar sunspot group.

beta: A sunspot group having both positive and negative magnetic polarities (bipolar), with a simple and distinct division between the polarities.

gamma: A complex active region in which the positive and negative polarities are so irregularly distributed as to prevent classification as a bipolar group.

beta-gamma: A sunspot group that is bipolar but which is sufficiently complex that no single, continuous line can be drawn between spots of opposite polarities.

delta: A qualifier to magnetic classes(see below) indicating that umbrae separated by less than 2 degrees within one penumbra have opposite polarity.

beta-delta: A sunspot group of general beta magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

beta-gamma-delta: A sunspot group of beta-gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

gamma-delta: A sunspot group of gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

Here's a site that shows each region well.

Can someone please check this thread:

www.abovetopsecret.com...


Why a scientist would write "WTF? WTF = Where're the Flares? of course" in a chart that goes online?

spaceweather.com...

For reasons not fully understood by forecasters, a disturbance rippled through Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 14th. Perhaps it was Cupid's arrow. The impact sparked some sweet lights around the Arctic Circle:

Update: Geomagnetic activity intensified even more on Feb. 15th when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tilted south, opening a crack in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured in and fueled a G1-class geomagnetic storm, underway now .

Well, now that I have got all my quotes and images up, let me say that this really disturbed me. According to the article, there were no CME impact in the solar wind data. So where did this come from? How big are these cracks and how many do we have and can we plot their locations? I really need an expert here! The fact that solar winds can conveniently just mosey on through to me is significant.

reply to post by Jerisa

So where did this come from? How big are these cracks and how many do we have and can we plot their locations

Weak field

"The most dramatic changes that occur when the poles reverse is a very large decrease of the total field intensity," said Jean-Pierre Valet, who conducts research on geomagnetic reversals at the Institute of Earth Physics of Paris.

source(old.news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by Jerisa


Here's an article from 2003 about cracks in the magnetosphere with a little less sensationalism:

science.nasa.gov...

Whenever auroras are visible, it means solar wind has passed through the magnetosphere and is interacting with the ionosphere.

reply to post by Eurisko2012

The magnetic poles flip on our sun every 11 years.

The last time the magnetic poles flipped was February 15, 2001.

Just add 11 years and you get February 15, 2012.

I haven't forgotten btw...

reply to post by Chadwickus


I don't see any pole flipping on our sun.

Did God reset the clock?

reply to post by Eurisko2012

Did God reset the clock?

Now ,something is wrong here ,how did you knew this.Somehow the time has stop for the Sun..in many ways and many measurable parameters.

Originally posted by diamondsmith
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

Did God reset the clock?

Now ,something is wrong here ,how did you knew this.Somehow the time has stop for the Sun..in many ways and many measurable parameters.

The Spirit Father can do anything.

According to NASA, the magnetic poles on our sun flip every 11 years like clockwork.

Well, not this year!

reply to post by Eurisko2012

Well, not this year!

Then when!You are saying the year is 2013?

Originally posted by diamondsmith
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

Well, not this year!

Then when!You are saying the year is 2013?

Beats me. Ask God.

You and i are just along for the ride. It's his grand design.

reply to post by Eurisko2012

It's his grand design.

yes I know...what I know.Sun's activity this year will be very interesting and already is.

Solar Update / Sun Eclipse

Solar activity has been low with only minor C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. Sunspot 1422 remains a large group and may produce further C-Class flares. Sunspot 1421 in the northeast quadrant, is starting to show signs of sunspot growth.

The moon is seen in the latest SDO images, passing between the spacecraft and the Sun. Below large Sunspot 1422 is captured by SDO with the moon blocking the northwest quadrant.

source(solarham.com...

Per the Goddard Space Weather Lab:

INCOMING CME: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say a coronal mass ejection (CME) will hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 26th at 13:30 UT (+/- 7 hr). The impact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm.

Space Weather

That's Sunday about 8:30am EST USA

G2=Moderate with these effects

Power systems:
voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations:
surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems:
intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)

All ready the proton flux has ramped up
Solarham site

and everytime I've checked the USGS quake site, it's listed over 200 quakes, which is a minor uptick. I find it usually averages around 180-190.

If you get a chance catch the SOHO clip here. It never fails to amaze me! Keep in mind they update it regularly, therefor the images of this blowout won't be there long.

So....get the popcorn ready, we'll see how it goes!!