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Ivan is Cat 5, Florida landfall Monday?

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posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 08:42 AM
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We are probably going to get screwed. Are any of you in Florida thinking about leaving? If so, where to?




posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 08:43 AM
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If a 5 hits florida, just turn it in to a park.


Ivan may do just that....



Are any of you in Florida thinking about leaving? If so, where to?


Where to? Exactly... Many learned that during Charlie, when they went to Orlando and got hammered, while we got little more than a few gusts... So far, Tampa Bay has a rep of not having strong hurricanes go through it. I'm trusting the rep, and staying in my house, which isn't in an evac zone and 100 yards or so away from a shelter, and where I've got lots of supplies, etc.

Not like I can throw my 3 cats and 2 dogs into the van, along with supplies, and stay in some hotel room that may not even be as sturdy as my 80 year old house, hehe....
(not to mention, if allowing pets, not THAT many of them...)

[edit on 9-9-2004 by Gazrok]



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 08:48 AM
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Leave? not really an option unless the government demands it and provides the out. I will leave my house and go to a shelter only if I am in the direct path of a Cat 5, anything else I am staying home.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 08:49 AM
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Another reason why you couldn't pay me money to move back home! I have been grumping at my family for years...you don't get lucky forever, but being that we were all born and raised there, it's hrad for some to leave "home". The traffic and the heat was enough to push me out....Perhaps it will take different turn, I hope! This is a huge storm though, I don't see Fl not gettin hit with some of it



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 08:51 AM
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Oh.. I am moving to florida! in the next year or so. I cant wait, Something like this only happen once in a blue moon.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 10:04 AM
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Latest update...
Oddly enough, the map on the weather channel has it going more on my projected path... NOAA's map still not updated from 5am....


...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR JAMAICA AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS
EASTWARD.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...
AND CURACAO AND ALL WARNINGS FOR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...
695 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WIT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 10:17 AM
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Originally posted by Xayden
I heard once if a storm had sustained winds of 200 it would be 6. Though i beleive it is not very likey in the atlantic, but typhoons i beleive can get that strong. Anyone have figures on this?


There has been talk about creating a catagory 6 on the chart.
It would be 175+ sustained. I think that Gray fellow who does
the hurricane predictions said it a year or so ago. But nothing
has been done to actually move to add that to the chart.

Typhoons in the pacific DO get stronger than the atlantic ones.
When I was stationed in Japan .... wow ... some whoppers
went by!!



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 10:19 AM
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Seems nobody is agreeing, but here's the latest 11am projection I could find....



Compare that to where I am (yellow dot of previous map...) Damn, that sucks....



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 10:20 AM
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Originally posted by SpittinCobra
Something like this only happen once in a blue moon.

Or once in every apocolypse.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 10:22 AM
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Originally posted by Gazrok
Seems nobody is agreeing, but here's the latest 11am projection I could find....


If this turns out to be accurate, that sucker will hold
together through Florida, pop out the other side,
regain strength in the Atlantic, and rake the whole
East Coast. Crap! Double Crap!!



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 10:35 AM
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Tampa would be flooded more than anyone in this lifetime has seen -- and I've seen it under five feet of water (South Tampa/Bayshore) as a kid during Elena in 1985.

Here is a collection of good sites, some new some old:

Central Florida Evacuation Routes
South Florida Evacuation Routes
County Specific Evacuation Routes

Storm Surge/Evac Maps by County

Shelters By County
All Florida Counties

West Central Florida
Hillsborough
Pinellas
Polk
Pasco
Sarasota
Manatee
Citrus
Hernando

Statewide Road / Accident Status
State EOC
FHP



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 11:40 AM
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I heard one weather analyst say that a planetary alignment is steering the hurricanes toward Florida, but I can't remember which station it was on, has anyone else heard this?



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 12:19 PM
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920 mb.

my god.

that is low, low, low.

I didn't board for Charlie or Frances.

I am boarding for Ivan. Looks like Florida's third strike.

In Jax, stay safe floridians.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 12:30 PM
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well theres good news and bad news with Ivan .
the good news is its going at a fair clip of 15 miles per hour.So it wont be around as long.
The BAD news is its going at a fair clip of 15 mph and wont have time to weaken MUCH if at all going over cuba and worse yet the trak has it taking the shortest rout and through the thinest part of the land mass.
Heres hoping it turns realy fast and heads back to the alantic missing florida all toghter .Of corse even if that happened it would still hit the keys.
Ps the WORST news is if it decides to go through the gulf of mexico first befor hitting land .Then It just may get over 200 mph winds ground leavel .
the gulf is very VERY warm no storms this year to cool it down.
even if ivan doesent you better hope that NO hurricain starts in the gulf at all .If one does it will be a dusie.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 12:41 PM
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Just thought everyone should know a 6.1 earthquake just happen in the Carribean Sea.

www.iris.edu/seismon
Kinda cowinkidinky



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 12:48 PM
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Ps the WORST news is if it decides to go through the gulf of mexico first befor hitting land


Unfortunately, that's what I'm predicting will happen, despite their computer models to the contrary... I hope that I'm wrong though....

I'm still boarded up from Frances, so I'm just keeping it up for Ivan....until I can see otherwise.... A lot of neighbors are doing likewise as I can see...

Well, one spare room, and many I know who may need to evacuate... Guess it's going to the relative or friend who asks first, hehe...


EDIT: not much change in the 2pm update, though pressure is up 3mb... NOAA is always a little slow updating their projection map....

[edit on 9-9-2004 by Gazrok]



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 01:01 PM
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Jamacian leader broadcasted a message to his nation to pray for God's protection and to prepare for the worst case senerio.

Streets are jammed as people rush to supermarkets, hardware stores.
Evacuation maybe needed, but will not happen til flooding occurs.
Evacuate NOW!

[edit on 9-9-2004 by valkeryie]



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 01:24 PM
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Jeez, that picture you posted Gazarok, looks like I'm going to be in the direct path of the hurricane. Definatily not good.



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 01:30 PM
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"Cat 4 Charley hit Florida from the left and went over DisneyWorld.
Cat 4 Frances (down to a 2) hit Florida from the right and went over
Disneyworld.

Ivan is a Cat 5. If it comes straight up ... it'll go over Disney World.

Look at the paths of Charley and Frances. It's like a giant X marks
the spot over Disney World."

Hmmm...good points to ponder! Remember Disney World Exec. Michael Eisner and Farhenheit 9/11? Maybe Bush & Co. is rather p****d!!!



posted on Sep, 9 2004 @ 02:40 PM
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Originally posted by valkeryie
Just thought everyone should know a 6.1 earthquake just happen in the Carribean Sea.

www.iris.edu/seismon
Kinda cowinkidinky


Just saw your post. I think it's just coincidence, but mother nature is on a rampage in these areas and Asia it seems...





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