Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by Saucerwench


I guess we can only hope for the best... I felt the 5.9 EQ last year all the way up here in Toronto... I can only assume that an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater will cause utter devastation in the city that is not designed to nullify the effects of an earthquake.

wasn't there an eq on the new madrid a few years back that was a 4.3 or so, I felt that up here in Chicago, felt like my apartment which was on the 3rd floor was swinging on a porch swing, lasted about 10 seconds.

reply to post by hapablab


I absoluuuutely felt THAT ONE. I was watching back-to-back Paranormal State TV shows, then I went to bed. At 4am, my feet and legs were bouncing up, like a violent poltergeist was shaking the end of my bed up and down, and because of those TV shows, that is what I thought was happening to me, until I got up and turned the radio (news) on.

reply to post by Saucerwench


That would trip me out beyond measure. As I have often gone to bed after watching shows waaaaaay paranoid and rather jumpy

Originally posted by Saucerwench
reply to post by hapablab

 

I absoluuuutely felt THAT ONE. I was watching back-to-back Paranormal State TV shows, then I went to bed. At 4am, my feet and legs were bouncing up, like a violent poltergeist was shaking the end of my bed up and down, and because of those TV shows, that is what I thought was happening to me, until I got up and turned the radio (news) on.

Oh wow I was also watching the ghost shows, I LOVE GHOST SHOWS LOL, I specifically remember that because I tend to stay up late lol, and I was wide awake sitting on my couch and I thought I was loosing my mind because I have never felt an earthquake up until that point, I was thinking OMG what is happening why do I feel like I'm swinging lol. then it stopped and the news broke about it I felt so relieved and then scared lol.
what happened to you would of scared the daylights outta me

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

But......... *USGS sneaks in quietly and upgrades two earthquakes after the 7th day*

Magnitude 6.2 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 05:24:59 UTC - was 5.6mb

Magnitude 6.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 05:21:24 UTC - was 5.5 mb

Thats interesting. I have fallen behind checking and marking the SNZO graphs by 3 weeks due to being tired at the end of the day after working.. But I have been saving them.
In starting at the first one using the 30 days List, I was able to ID all but one of 22 traces
It was the day of the SW Siberia 6.7, and there was a big swarm S of Fiji as well. marked up LISS SNZO 27-02-2012 graph
I've never been able to ID so many, and must assume a lot of those I found on that day have been added to what was originally on the 7 day list.
So many of those "mystery" quakes that I keep seeing eventually turn up later.

As it happens, and unfortunately, the 26th was not a graph I saved.

update to post by PuterMan


Please see this post for the final figures. It definitely is not proven as far as I am concerned but I have no doubt that the believers will be happy enough with this level of inaccuracy.

About 65 minutes ago there was a 5.0 quake in Guerrero Mexico. There have been 3 quakes of 5.0 since Yesterday in this place.

The 7.8 quake was located in Oaxaca with another 4 quakes going from 5.1 to 5.3

Hope I am wrong but maybe there will be a bigger quake in Mexico originated now from Guerrero.


Maybe the 188 days prediction is not complete.

reply to post by PuterMan


thanks for taking the time to actually check the data, unlike most who spout the 188 day theory.
3.21% chance?
ppfffft say no more
Theory Debunked

reply to post by lke123

About 65 minutes ago there was a 5.0 quake in Guerrero Mexico. There have been 3 quakes of 5.0 since Yesterday in this place.

The 7.8 quake was located in Oaxaca with another 4 quakes going from 5.1 to 5.3

Hope I am wrong but maybe there will be a bigger quake in Mexico originated now from Guerrero.


Maybe the 188 days prediction is not complete.

The problem as I see it is that the quakes since yesterday are pretty much irrelevant in the great scheme of things.

When you look at the energy output yesterday (7.96 PJ) compared to today so far (0.01 PJ) I think that speaks for itself. Of course these things are not set in stone. There was a goodly 7 just before Japan.

On the 27th March 2 years ago there was a nice 4 PJ spike so that was a Mag 7.2

Having said that Guerrero does currently appear to have the potential for an 8.1 so it could indeed happen, but if it does it will be because of mechanics and not any imaginary 188 day cycle.




Oaxaca had a 7.8 in the 1930s and these three in 1928

1928-03 99 1 7.5
1928-06 99 1 7.7
1928-10 99 1 7.5

Centennial Catalogue

It still has a potential 7.77 in the stress, but please do bear in mind I am calculating these on the FE Geographic regions and have not looked at the seismic aspects. Having said that for the most part the geographical regions are OK.

reply to post by lke123

There is always a possibility of a bigger quake, but so far this seems like a classic Mag 7 and aftershocks. There should be a Mag 6 within the next 6 months, but I doubt most people will remember it being part of the aftershock sequence if it longer than a couple of months from now.

Of course earthquake pay no attention to Provincial Borders drawn on a piece of paper by humans , so if there are more in Guerrero or more in Oaxaca is irrelevant.

I've marked the 1,2.3 etc locations in sequence on these maps below, its totally random, there is no trail to see where they are headed. These are Mag 5+.




If you add the 4+ aftershocks they are spreading directly South overall, back to the Plate edge, so we can speculate that this was a Subduction quake, (Rate of 61mm/year)
On this map I have marked the only recorded Mag 8 quake in this immediate area and all the aftershocks since the 7.4 yesterday Pink=the 7.4, Orange=Mag 5's, Yellow=Mag 4's
The Blue=Mag 8.2 was

Date/Time: 1787/3/28 11:17: Local
Lat: 16.5 Long: -98.5
Location: Mexico:San Marcos,Teotitlan (Guerrero)
Magnitude: 8.2 Unk
Depth: - km
Source: Milne (1911), Chronologica

this map shows all the recorded mag 8 quakes for Mexico since 1700
left to right
8.3 - 1900/1/20 6:33:00
8.1 - 1932/6/3 1:36:00
8.0 - 1995/10/9 3:35:00
8.0 - 1985/9/19 1:17:00
8.2 - 1787/3/28 11:17:00
8.0 - 1928/6/17 3:19:00

Type: Earthquake 2 hours ago

Magnitude: 3.9

Date Time: Wednesday March 21 2012, 17:07:11 UTC

Region: SE of Oodnadatta, SA

. Depth: 0 km

Source: GeoScience Australia

source(quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

Floods, Fires and mini Tornadoes.

and now this

reply to post by muzzy


Which as YOU know muzzy is why we are collaborating on these areas. I agree that quakes know no boundaries. Looks like my hurried graph were a waste of time as the border area there seems to be a distinct area. Geologists! Mind they are geographical regions but they go into such seismic detail as to why they have chosen them, and then seem to get it all wrong. Look at NZ. All of SI in one lump, all of NI in one lump.

Games without borders, Jeux sans frontières
Medicine without borders, Médecine sans frontières

Earthquakes without borders just does not have the same ring to it - Les tremblements de terre sans frontières.

Just got a flash on my phone saying 3 quakes just hit New Guinea, 6.9 followed by 2 6.7's. Depth is not too shallow so hope nothing too drastic is happening.

Magnitude 6.7 - NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Also a low tsunami warning just popped up..

reply to post by StarTraveller


Still only got 1 here

The 6.7

No tsunami warning issued either locally or pacific wide

reply to post by PuterMan



Sorry Puter, I am blaming my iearthquake app for that. It says the low tsunami warning came from NOAA
and agreed, can only find the one quake on the USGS..

Only 1 decimal point between the networks!?? Thats rare
Kainantu, PNG
USGS 6.6Mw
GFZ 6.6Mw
EMSC 6.7Mw
GeoAu 6.7Mw
Russians haven't done a Ms for this one though
RAS 6.6mb


PMG.IU.10.BHZ graph

another map for Oaxaca further to post by muzzy


interactive version
parameters
catalog=ANSS
start_time=1900/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2012/03/22,00:00:00
minimum_magnitude=6.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 100 km from (16.662,-98.188)

According to the National Seismological Service (SSN), the massive Mexico earthquake unleashed more than 44 aftershocks as of Wednesday.

Of the aftershocks recorded by the country, six were over 5.0 + magnitude on the Richer scale and 25 were of a 4.0 magnitude, with the rest 3.0 or smaller.

Apart from the string of earthquakes in San Salvador, today SNET reported another quake of 4.3 on the Richter scale at 11.26 local time (17.26 GMT) in the Pacific Ocean, about 43 kilometers south of the estuary San Diego, in the department of La Libertad. This other quake had a focal depth of 34 miles and reached an intensity of three on the Mercalli scale in San Salvador.

source(theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com...