Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by PuterMan


Well.....

Mighty strange for the creator of TWO earthquake threads to lately seem to not like people discussing earthquakes and their potential harm... it's almost as if you only want to be the one to determine which are scary and which are not....

Puterman, I am not sure what you look at as 'precursors' or 'predictions' to major quakes: the USGS can't even do this, yet you purport that 'nothing is going to happen to tommorow or next week or....'

Do you think the people in the March 2011 Japan quake just knew that they were about to have a 9.0 quake, or the people in Haiti? or the people in Chile?

Everyone who posts 'get ready' messages on this thread are just letting people know that there are ways to at least be more prepared in specific earthquake zones, especially with uptick of seismic activity. This, after all, is an earthquake discussion thread

started by you.

reply to post by berkeleygal


I noticed they were gone 2 days ago. You have to click "Monitoring" (along the top of the main Earthquake pages), then you should see a link for "Seismogram Displays" along the left side of the page.

The problem with websites like this is that everybody has an opinion, which isn't really a problem, but we sometimes view it as such. People seem to get a bit protective on websites like these in any case. Puter Man has a lot of knowledge on this subject, so I can understand how it could get a bit annoying to see so much repeated, half of which is based on opinion, when he delves more into pure numbers and historical seismicity.

There will always be somebody who gets "too alarmed", while there will always be the guy in the background uttering, "earthquakes happen everyday", we just have to take our time with one another and understand the fears that some possess, especially with regards to a place like California, which has a higher population than all of Canada combined.

I do not personally feel good about the 6.0 in Oregon, and I have been watching the area closely since the 6.4 on September 9th, 2011. I'm also feeling more cautious towards the 5.6 in N. California and the 4.9 that occurred in Baja all the same. I feel the entire area requires a close-eye to be on it, especially if there's more activity in the area in the next 48 hours.

reply to post by murkraz


You are absolutely correct.

The problem is, as I see it (as do others) is that the scenes usually play out like this:

Puterman: Hey everybody, look at this seismic activity....we should keep watching, as there is a strong likelihood of a major quake for that area

ATS members: (STAR, FLAG, supporting comments)

Puterman:


ATS poster: Wow...look at the quake in such and such area....looks like some interesting activity there.

ATS members: (STARS, supporting comments)

Puterman: Nope...nope...nope.....quit getting all worked up over nothing...that place has quakes like that all the time.

Magnitude 5.8

Date-Time Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 14:07:51 UTC Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 12:07:51 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 7.533°S, 146.926°E

Depth 10.1 km (6.3 miles)

Region EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Distances 88 km (54 miles) S of Lae, New Guinea, PNG 137 km (85 miles) ENE of Kerema, New Guinea, PNG 216 km (134 miles) N of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea 2302 km (1430 miles) NNW of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.3 km (8.3 miles); depth +/- 2.6 km (1.6 miles)

Parameters NST=278, Nph=278, Dmin=208.2 km, Rmss=0.97 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=8

Source Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D) Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

source(earthquake.usgs.gov...

To add: If you want something to get worked up about go and study the Sun. What is (or perhaps one should say is not) happening with our Sun is way more serious than a small earthquake of Oregon and will have far more effect on ALL our lives in the the next few decades.

reply to post by PuterMan


You know I love and value your opinion Puterman!!!

I know you are not into doom and gloom and I am not either...but I am realistic to a point that if it is possible then I ponder it. Anything is possible...right?

With that said, coupled with what I quoted you to say above I am really wondering if the Sun's weak activity is not related to what happens on Earth. I really think it is. You are more than able to disagree with me as you do have that right.

The Sun is effecting us in more ways than one as it is the entire Solar System as well.

The thing is .....the magnet field is weak and becoming weaker. Gamma Rays and all other space junk and energy is getting through to not only us but the core of the Earth as well. This is not something I am making up as it is well known in the scientific and metaphysical community as far as I have read.

This article is old but it does say at the end that we can expect an increase in geo~activity.
geochangemag.org...

Thoughts???

reply to post by ButterCookie


Really? Kindly illustrate that remark.


reply to post by MamaJ

I really think it is. You are more than able to disagree with me as you do have that right.

I agree entirely. Nothing to disagree about.

By the way I have read that article before and I can't say that I entirely agree with it.


Let's just get something straight here. I am NOT saying there is no need for any concern I am saying that certain people of ATS seem to take a great delight in winding everyone else up whether for altruistic reasons or not I will not comment, and it is not good to get people upset - and yes some are upset - without valid cause. We all know there will be a big one but we also are fairly sure that it is not going to be right now if for no other reason that that all the signs are not there in the opinion of the experts as well as the non-experts.

I am not an expert and neither are most of the rest of us. I am however much less susceptible to the doom spouters than most and it grieves me that people who are more easily affected are being wound up.

And buttercookie if you think that any of this has anything to do with stars and flags then you are just being silly. Look above my avatar.

reply to post by ButterCookie

Everyone who posts 'get ready' messages on this thread are just letting people know that there are ways to at least be more prepared in specific earthquake zones, especially with uptick of seismic activity. This, after all, is an earthquake discussion thread

There is a difference between letting people know to get ready and some of the statements that have been made.

Never mind, You just do your own thing. I won't say anything more.

reply to post by PuterMan


I've never posted on this thread. I do read every darn post.
I just want to say thank you to the people on here that produce wonderful, informative information and are on top of earthquakes so fast sometimes it makes my head spin.
I don't live in an area where I have much concern at this time, even though apparently we did have one in the UP a while ago.

I also want to thank you for posting graphs and such, so that someone like me can understand easier what is going on in certain areas.

Just wanted to say thanks overall to those of you that educate the rest of us!!!


I also do enjoy watching what may be a slight competition? as to whom can post a quake faster.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by ButterCookie

 

We all know there will be a big one but we also are fairly sure that it is not going to be right now if for no other reason that that all the signs are not there in the opinion of the experts as well as the non-experts.

edit on 15/2/2012 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

Signs? That's interesting....what were the 'signs' that the nearly 3,000 people in Japan should have been heeding?

better yet, the 300,000 victims of Haiti and the 1,000 victims of Chile?

Do post that information, as it can probably save more lives next time.

So just to throw in my two cents....or ten, or okay, maybe it's only one.

It is very, very easy to get worked up over any potential signs of a mega quake event. I have battled with that fine line of information vs sensationalism or fearful speculation several times.

I have 'used' PM on numerous occasions as an anchor to keep me grounded and to sometimes bring me back to the reality of things. For this, I am and will continue to be grateful.

There are several other members that I have learned a lot from and who I think have great insight into things. Some of it scienific, some of it unconventional, but always informative. One of the reasons I will start a seperate thread from here for some topics is due to these differences. I see this thread as the more scientific one...mine tend to stray a bit and I don't want to 'muddy' this thread down. I often miss great things here for that reason so I can see where it may get tiring at times to wade through it. Not that they don't have their own worth, just in different ways.

I also think we need to be cautious in issuing alerts. There is a huge differene between warning someone to just be aware of the potential, that there is some activity going on so just be prepared just in case.....and telling people to uproot their lives and move.

I am a bit concerned by what I am seeing in my neck of the woods...I won't lie, but I am no where near running. Heck, I'm not even sleeping with my shoes by the bed yet. I AM aware however, and I really appreciate all the watchers here and the great research and input by everyone from all directions.

More on topic: I am glad to see that so far, now new quakes off-shore or along the subduction zone. I would expect to see some aftershocks from that (now listed 5.9 by PNSN), but then again...we didn't see hardly any from the last few mod quakes out there and near Vancouver, so perhaps that is just more the norm with these guys. Here's to hoping it relieved some stress! Okay...off now to nurse this darn headache!!!

reply to post by westcoast


True.

I have never suggested that anyone uproot their lives and move.. I merely join in on the discussions as this type of conversation can become fascinating to explore.

But,

The author of this thread, through proof of his 2011 and now 2012 Quake Watch threads has initiated various conversations regarding quakes as well as listed them straight from USGS, which we all have done. The difference is that the thread author seems to deny and attempt to debunk even factual info that other members post (probably because he didn't post it 1st)

The point is that I find I find it very immature to do so, when all we are doing is collaborating on general, sometimes specific earthquake discussion, just to have the thread's author come in to divert the attention elsewhere if he is not the 'original' quake finder'.

If this was not occurring, I would not have people star my comments on this matter.

Magnitude mb 4.2
Region GUANGDONG, CHINA
Date time 2012-02-15 18:34:24.7 UTC
Location 23.86 N ; 114.51 E
Depth 19 km
Distances 80 km N Luoyang (pop 123,144 ; local time 02:34:24.7 2012-02-16)
23 km NW Yuancheng (pop 93,718 ; local time 02:34:24.7 2012-02-16)

EMSC

Originally posted by ButterCookie
The difference is that the thread author seems to deny and attempt to debunk even factual info that other members post (probably because he didn't post it 1st)

Would you mind showing where this has occured?

The point is that I find I find it very immature to do so, when all we are doing is collaborating on general, sometimes specific earthquake discussion, just to have the thread's author come in to divert the attention elsewhere if he is not the 'original' quake finder'.

You're kidding, right? Again, would you mind showing an example?

If this was not occurring, I would not have people star my comments on this matter.

You do realize those stars are just digital pixels on your compy's screen?
They don't mean you are a kind person. They don't hold you when you go to sleep. They don't pay the bills and they aren't edible.
Just because a few people attached stars to your post, doesn't make it correct. Lots of like-minded people have been dead wrong in the past. Like the ones who believed the world to be flat. Or the folks that thought slaughtering the Native people of North America was a good idea. Shall I go on?

Stop taking yourself so seriously and go outside and enjoy the fresh air...

Sincerely,
Olivine

reply to post by Olivine


lol if you dont see it you must have blinders on. whether its intentional or not on putermans part I see it too. and have been offended by exactly what butter described not on my posts but others.

just because you insult someone with kindness does not make you a better person and asking for evidence is very lazy. that last post by you was surprising to be honest.

Magnitude ML 4.2
Region EASTERN IRAN
Date time 2012-02-15 18:57:35.0 UTC
Location 32.12 N ; 58.53 E
Depth 2 km
Distances 106 km SW Birjand (pop 196,982 ; local time 22:27:35.8 2012-02-15)
188 km NE Ravar (pop 40,167 ; local time 22:27:35.8 2012-02-15)

EMSC

Guys let's not derail this Thread..

Buttercookie.....

Puterman IS A MAN after all! j/k PM

Seriously though....someone has to keep some of us in check and calm us down a bit. He just so happens to believe everything is going to be ok and if the big one comes....it comes and we will know it.

The problem is we cannot predict EQ's and we want to...we want to be able to save lives. Even if PM knew there was one coming today and he created a thread not only would we all be freaking the # out (because he doesn't lose his cool) but there would be nothing anyone could do about it if and when it comes. It sucks but it is sooo true, at least for now.

I say we all hug, kiss and make up.

We are all different and PM is just one of those laid back guys that doesn't want to see anyone or hear of anyone being scared when there is no control over the fear what so ever.

Love and peace to all of you and I REALLY LOVE YA'LL!!!

Jenn

Puterman, peeps are just giving you some constructive criticism is all. And I bet youve already taken it to heart. I know I felt put off by you after my initial post in this thread. Its all a learning process.

And its very important to keep a calmer than hysterical head on or shoulders, so your advice is much appreciated. I have always had trouble with people suggesting evacuations without first understanding what a difficult under taking that is.

But the bottom line is, I have lived in the heart of EQ land all my life, and I don't feel good. I can feel things under neath me that are trying to tell me something. And I think that something is that a big shake is on the way. And Im tired of playing with fire, so I am thinking about moving to a place close by that is on solid bedrock and way above tsunami zone.

And I need to express this because these emotions are very real. And I think others need to express as well.

i just realized for myself, as a long time watcher,
that march is comming around again,
and well, if it seems like there is stress in the group,,
(both crustal and downthrust,or cracks, or etc,,,)
we can all agree,,
lets gently ,,,,get past march and april,may,,

may im not too fond of,,but anyway,
ya lot happy thoughts,, cant hurt i guess.

Me.