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Japan should be prepared for the possibility of a magnitude-10 earthquake, although the chances of a temblor that size are slim, a seismologist said.
“The chances of a magnitude-10 occurring are very low,” professor Toru Matsuzawa of Tohoku University reported at a Nov. 21 meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Japan. “But if we think of what could happen, with the maximum in mind, we can make a swift response.”
The world’s largest recorded earthquake was the magnitude-9.5 Valdivia earthquake off the coast of Chile in 1960, rupturing a 1,000-kilometer fault. A magnitude-10 earthquake would be 30 times more powerful than the magnitude-9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Matsuzawa said a magnitude-10 quake is possible in theory if a large fault slips.
If a temblor of such a scale should strike, the underground rupture would continue for 20 minutes to an hour, meaning tsunami could hit coasts before the shaking subsides.
If a 3,000-kilometer stretch from the Japan Trench to the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench along the Pacific Ring of Fire has a slip of 60 meters, that would constitute a magnitude-10 earthquake, he said.
The energy of a magnitude-11 quake, 30 times more powerful than a magnitude-10 temblor, would be equivalent to that of the asteroid impact that is believed to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 65.5 million years ago. Such a quake would cause a shift extending more than 20,000 kilometers. Matsuzawa concluded that consideration would not be needed for such an earthquake.
Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo
Thanks for that one. I needed the laugh.
There is something curious happening to scientists since the Italian Job (Not Michael Caine). They are all changing from "men in white coats guessing" to "men in white coats who are respected scientists making wild guesses just in case, so they can say, well we did warn you, see".
The tail end of the area described has NEVER behaved in one block as far as I am aware. Why then should it join hands with the area that has just faulted (2011) plus a bit more, and do another 60mtr sprint? Answer it won't.
This is 'backside protectionism' at it's best.edit on 26/11/2012 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)
usgs,2012-11-26 15:52:53, -19.132, 169.729, 4.7 mb, 10.0, Vanuatu
That report the member linked to mentioned a 3,000 km rupture.
Back to Vanuatu: would it be more accurate to say that a theoretical 1,000-km rupture in that region might produce a low-range mag 9? Serious question.
It would seem that most of Sth America is unlikely as they had one relatively recently -- half a century or so not being very long ago with such events. But where else? Is there any way that an event associated with the CSZ could produce such a monster, if (perhaps) the rupture extended even further north beyond that particular zone? Granted, in theory a low mag 9 has already been mooted for the CSZ, but a 9.5 -- 9.6?
nrcan,2012-10-30 02:48:58, 52.130, -132.320, 6.1, 18.6, 129 Km Ssw Of Sandspit Bc
nrcan,2012-10-30 02:49:00, 52.300, -132.370, 5.6, 10.0, 112 Km Ssw Of Sandspit Bc