Quake Watch 2012

5.3 earthquake, 233km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu. Oct 15 18:49 at epicenter (depth 45km).

2012-10-15 07:49:03 UTC
2012-10-15 18:49:03 UTC+11:00 at epicenter
2012-10-15 03:49:03 UTC-04:00 system time
Location
13.157°S 165.525°E depth=45.2km (28.1mi)

Nearby Cities
233km (145mi) WNW of Sola, Vanuatu
316km (196mi) NW of Luganville, Vanuatu
588km (365mi) NNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu
734km (456mi) SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands
878km (546mi) NNW of We, New Caledonia

Originally posted by kennvideo
5.3 earthquake, 233km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu. Oct 15 18:49 at epicenter (depth 45km).

2012-10-15 07:49:03 UTC
2012-10-15 18:49:03 UTC+11:00 at epicenter
2012-10-15 03:49:03 UTC-04:00 system time
Location
13.157°S 165.525°E depth=45.2km (28.1mi)

Nearby Cities
233km (145mi) WNW of Sola, Vanuatu
316km (196mi) NW of Luganville, Vanuatu
588km (365mi) NNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu
734km (456mi) SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands
878km (546mi) NNW of We, New Caledonia

Why is it I get the heeby jeebys when I see Vanuatu? lol I would love to know...

Also, the six eq's in Yellowstone... how normal is it for that big thang to swarm?

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Don't forget the Kamchatka is where the Mag 8 is supposed to go off on the 10th > 11th > 12th > 13th > 14th > 15th > well OK 16th then maybe perhaps possibly...........

There has been some little stuff but no Mag 8 yet (and I don't believe there will be either)

I also don't think Old Yeller is up to anything either. Something settled, it farted a bit and it has all blown over.


@mammaj:

Also, the six eq's in Yellowstone... how normal is it for that big thang to swarm?

Very! I don't think Yellowstone is a swarm until you have a hundred or more being as it can go into the thousands.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by wasobservingquietly

 

Don't forget the Kamchatka is where the Mag 8 is supposed to go off on the 10th > 11th > 12th > 13th > 14th > 15th > well OK 16th then maybe perhaps possibly...........

There has been some little stuff but no Mag 8 yet (and I don't believe there will be either)

I also don't think Old Yeller is up to anything either. Something settled, it farted a bit and it has all blown over.

 

@mammaj:

Also, the six eq's in Yellowstone... how normal is it for that big thang to swarm?

Very! I don't think Yellowstone is a swarm until you have a hundred or more being as it can go into the thousands.

edit on 15/10/2012 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

english.ruvr.ru...

hhmmmm.... volcano may be starting to errupt at Kamchatka.

yesterday afternoon NZDT

Public ID 2012p778388
Universal Time October 15 2012 at 0:05:36
NZ Daylight Time Monday, October 15 2012 at 1:05:36 pm
Latitude, Longitude -38.31, 175.99
Intensity ? light
Focal Depth 195 km
Magnitude 5.2 ML
Location 15 km south-east of Tokoroa
Agency WEL(GNS_Primary)
Type earthquake
Status ? reviewed

www.geonet.org.nz...

UGS has 4.8mb, 5.6ML, and 4.9GS (what ever that is) earthquake.usgs.gov...
GFZ 5.0mb geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...

first mag 5 for 6 weeks

reply to post by PuterMan


*giggles to herself because Puter said farted.... Hehehehehe*

Shame on you for using such an untechnical word Puter.

I am however glad that you don't see Yeller acting to out of line.

Also, for some reason, way back in my mind peeps a little man out from behind a wall that says watch Kamchatka.
I don't know why, we don't know what data they are using to "predict" anything. I would really like to know, but I certainly won't pay to look over anything they have to say on the matter.

*meanwhile, the child in me that didn't get much sleep continues to giggle.....*

It's so hard to split hairs. They've listed about a dozen for Yellowstone in a recent update on map. There's maybe twentyish altogether and there was just a small solo one not long agoe. Aftershock. Bad robin. No.

It was a movement. So, no individual earthquakes to cut up. This Yellowstone swarm is no tectonic but fluid. It does not resemble the regular pops that are frequent and easy to spot. This was a bunch altogether more akin to diarrhea evacuating rather than flatulence. I don't think anyone knows if it whether it was magma or water. My guess it's Yellowstone getting another magma recharge. I can't remember when, but there was a series very similar and very near that end of the park. It's within the caldera, or near the hotspot, or on the rim. It is near Old Faithful and the Geysers so it could be hydro-thermal.

I like our Canadian Weather Network. But there links aren't always the best and they change stuff. Here goes. and i'll find something else....

www.theweathernetwork.com...&stormfile=Scientists_find__trigger__for_large-scale_volcanic_eruptions_13_10_2012?ref=ccbox _weather_category3

here's another

www.tgdaily.com...

just say it. of course it's thermal mixing. it's the main bit of physics to support my giant volcano theory. fire and ice. simple. so, i'm betting we had some kind of thermal mixing near Yellowstone. I think this is really fundamental. I mean the sun is doing the same thing. Our weather hear on the planet does the same thing. Right now there's a warm chunk of air that being push by a cold front and we've got a wind warning. Wicked. wicked wicked halloweeny.

giant volcano erupt to from hudson bay long long ago

reply to post by MamaJ


yes has been quiet for the last 6 weeks (same as NZ), just a 5.1mb a few days ago

catalog=ANSS
start_time=2012/06/01,00:00:00
end_time=2012/10/16,00:00:00
minimum_magnitude=5.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 500 km from (-13.157,165.525)

Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012/06/28 15:51:58.60 -13.5050 166.6250 10.00 5.30 Mw 200 1.09 NEI 201206281026
2012/07/03 03:49:33.04 -10.8200 163.3310 92.00 5.50 Mw 452 0.89 NEI 201207031010
2012/07/06 02:28:22.19 -14.6570 167.3400 160.10 6.30 Mw 521 0.92 NEI 201207061005
2012/07/12 04:11:16.04 -10.7520 165.9770 127.70 5.20 Mb 360 0.78 NEI 201207121014
2012/07/24 19:41:42.51 -12.0420 166.4160 153.40 5.10 Mb 61 1.18 NEI 201207241038
2012/08/03 11:58:58.20 -11.4780 165.0380 10.00 5.40 Mb 239 0.92 NEI 201208031031
2012/09/05 05:32:11.22 -12.3770 166.5150 49.90 5.00 ML 19 0.56 NEI 201209051013
2012/09/05 13:09:10.06 -12.4760 166.5130 27.00 6.00 Mw 360 1.01 NEI 201209051030
2012/10/13 10:03:59.67 -11.1010 162.8350 51.10 5.10 Mb 102 0.84 NEI 201210131005

don't think that particular northern part of the New Hebrides Trench is capable of a Mag 8 though, history (last 1698 years) shows nearest Mag 8 was 112 years ago and it was on the upper part of the subduction zone near the Santa Cruz Islands

Date/Time: 1900/7/29 6:59:- UTC
Lat: -10 Long: 165
Location: Solomon Is.:Nendo coast, Santa Cruz Is.
Magnitude: 8.1 Unk
Depth: s km
Source: Ganse and Nelson (1981, 1982), Raid and Myers (1985)
Mag8WorldEQ

5.5 earthquake, 9km NE of La Gomera, Guatemala. Oct 15 11:52 at epicenter (depth 77km).

2012-10-15 17:52:21 UTC
2012-10-15 11:52:21 UTC-06:00 at epicenter
2012-10-15 13:52:21 UTC-04:00 system time
Location
14.150°N 91.000°W depth=76.5km (47.6mi)

Nearby Cities
9km (6mi) NE of La Gomera, Guatemala
17km (11mi) WSW of Masagua, Guatemala
20km (12mi) S of Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa, Guatemala
28km (17mi) SW of Escuintla, Guatemala
75km (47mi) SW of Guatemala City, Guatemala

reply to post by PuterMan


I can't believe I had already forgotten about the magnitude 8!
Too much going on around here lately to focus!

When I saw the first few last night, what caught my attention,
was it seemed odd that there were no smaller quakes mixed in.
But they are on the list today.

Then I ran across this link with monitoring for GPS, temperature & things.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Three of the GPS graphs on stations inside the caldera showed what looked like an
increase to my uneducated eye. Each station has three graphs,
it was the bottom graph on each of them, & none outside the caldera was showing it.
Stations: OFW2, HVWY & WLWY.
The three graphs aren't labeled, so I don't know what the difference in them is.
And today it's going back down it looks like.

Maybe it was just because that area had more movement from the quakes?
I thought it was odd that none outside showed it, but a couple of the stations
that were closest to the quakes didn't have graphs!

They're showing 23 on the list for yesterday now, (bottom left of page):

www.seis.utah.edu...

Last night the M1.0+ list wasn't showing any below 2.5.

SOURCES: USGS & Utah.edu
WOQ

5 or greater in past 24 hours

5.2 earthquake, 62km WSW of Illapel, Chile. Oct 15 16:04 at epicenter (17m ago, depth 20km).

5.2 earthquake, 57km NE of Ndoi Island, Fiji. Oct 15 08:19 at epicenter (27m ago, depth 544km).

5.5 earthquake, 9km NE of La Gomera, Guatemala. Oct 15 11:52 at epicenter (20m ago, depth 77km).

5.3 earthquake, 233km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu. Oct 15 18:49 at epicenter (20m ago, depth 45km).

5.4 earthquake, 136km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia. Oct 15 12:19 at epicenter (19m ago, depth 11km).

reply to post by kennvideo


Good see it has quietened down back to normal levels after yesterday. 9 yesterday was nearly twice the average of around 5 to 6 daily.

reply to post by PuterMan


7 today...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I thought I would drop this here and get your thoughts on the chances of this? Over-blown? Conservative? Or right on the money?
A Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake Aftershock Still Awaits Fukushima
pissinontheroses.blogspot.ca...

Magnitude mb 6.2
Region KURIL ISLANDS
Date time 2012-10-16 12:41:25.0 UTC
Location 49.59 N ; 156.52 E
Depth 80 km
Distances 1369 km NE Sapporo (pop 1,883,027 ; local time 21:41:25.6 2012-10-16)
413 km S Mokhovaya, petropavlovsk-kamch (pop 22,815 ; local time 01:41:25.6 2012-10-17)
409 km S Petropavlovsk-kamchatskiy (pop 187,282 ; local time 01:41:25.6 2012-10-17)

EMSC

reply to post by Aircooled


From your link:

An M8 aftershock, based on historical major Japanese quake data, has an 80% weight of occurring today with that weighting reaching 100% by September 2016.

You see the problem here is that there is no historical data after a Mag 9 because in recorded history Japan has not had a Mag 9 (that I have found) so that is statistically inaccurate.

It is also NOT a RULE that an earthquake of 1 magnitude lower than the main shock will occur. In fact some time ago, in relation to this very event, I looked at all Mag 9 quakes known and actually the chance of a Mag 8 after a mag 9 statistically is NIL.

There is however a very good chance of a Mag 7 to 7.5 but I would ask it to hold off until they have sorted out No 4 pool.

reply to post by radpetey


Where do you get 7? There are 4 on that list. And there are four in my list.

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
TODAY = 4 so far
usgs,2012-10-16 13:39:25, 31.220, 130.192, 5.3, 168.3, Kyushu. Japan
usgs,2012-10-16 12:41:24, 49.569, 156.525, 5.6, 64.7, Kuril Isls.
usgs,2012-10-16 02:03:29, 31.289, 140.288, 5.4, 102.6, Izu Isls. Japan Region
usgs,2012-10-16 00:16:42, -36.827, 78.728, 5.0, 9.8, Mid-Indian Ridge
YESTERDAY = 7
usgs,2012-10-15 23:43:46, 35.914, 69.604, 5.0, 112.2, Hindu Kush Region. Afghanistan
usgs,2012-10-15 22:45:03, 51.826, 159.614, 5.1, 43.5, Off E. Coast Of The Kamchatka Peninsula. Russia
usgs,2012-10-15 21:04:20, -31.831, -71.777, 5.2, 19.9, Offshore Coquimbo. Chile
usgs,2012-10-15 20:19:01, -20.330, -178.260, 5.2, 544.5, Fiji Region
usgs,2012-10-15 17:52:21, 14.150, -91.000, 5.5, 76.5, Guatemala
usgs,2012-10-15 07:49:03, -13.157, 165.525, 5.3, 45.2, Vanuatu
usgs,2012-10-15 01:19:03, 51.912, 159.445, 5.6, 21.8, Off E. Coast Of The Kamchatka Peninsula. Russia
THE DAY BEFORE = 9
usgs,2012-10-14 14:16:52, 48.388, 154.450, 5.0, 53.4, Kuril Isls.
usgs,2012-10-14 13:18:53, -10.264, 161.409, 5.1, 62.0, Solomon Isls.
usgs,2012-10-14 13:17:28, 36.167, 69.240, 5.1, 53.7, Hindu Kush Region. Afghanistan
usgs,2012-10-14 11:11:35, 38.227, 144.340, 5.6, 24.8, Off E. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
usgs,2012-10-14 11:09:34, 48.373, 154.440, 5.2, 35.3, Kuril Isls.
usgs,2012-10-14 10:41:24, 14.711, -92.392, 5.4, 83.2, Chiapas. Mexico
usgs,2012-10-14 10:13:38, 41.861, 46.362, 5.3, 10.0, Georgia (Sakartvelo)
usgs,2012-10-14 09:41:59, 48.304, 154.532, 5.8, 35.5, Kuril Isls.
usgs,2012-10-14 04:58:07, -7.191, 156.063, 5.9, 60.9, Solomon Isls.

Thanks guys for the word on Old Yella.

Here is another question...

What is up with Nevada and the lack of infomation regarding the swarm?

www.mynews4.com...

It's not strange for a dozen quakes this size to happen in a week, but there have been at least 115 since October 8, and about 60 of those have been since Thursday. "These things are totally unpredictable," Smith said. "It could stop today, or it could keep going at a level of very small events that no one would feel." Or they could get stronger. so far they're small - with the biggest two quakes shaking at magnitude one - but there's potential for one that really rocks Reno. "We have faults around here that are capable of magnitude seven type events," Smith said. So this week the Great Nevada Shakeout will teach people to drop, cover and hold-on just in case there's a big quake. It's Nevada's largest earthquake drill and it's this Thursday, October 18 at 10:18 am.

Thanks in advance!!!!

Any body pick up any thing in New Hampshire, just had this house shake and roll for several seconds.

Don't see anything on USGS yet.

Got it here.

MAP 4.5 2012/10/16 23:12:25 43.603 -70.754 27.0 7 km ( 4 mi) S of Lake Arrowhead, ME

from USGS

reply to post by herenow


4.5 in southern Maine. I thought my house was coming down. Boston