Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by Plumbduff


I'd imagine that this won't be good!

Let's hope no deaths with this one.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


Any news on Churches or religious buildings?
Alps..........

reply to post by jazz10


The only update I have are posted on this thread I started: 5.8 Italy Quake - 3 Confirmed Dead

earthquake-report.com... is reporting 12 deaths so far relating to the Northern Italy Quake and the numbers are actually expected to rise. My concern for the day is they have a bigger one coming!

Everytime I see Bulgaria on the eq list I am reminded of the article I read pertaining to the new Super Volcanoe thats rising dramatically. Sure hope that big thing stays quiet!!

Bookmarking thread......

I have been watching the news about the EQ in Italy, and this may be a stupid question, please forgive me, but I am trying to learn....Is there any way that these EQs in Italy are related to any underground magma chambers that lead to Mt. Vesuvius ? I know they are very far away from each other....Are there any other volcanoes near the epicenter of Bologna or Modena?

reply to post by PuterMan


Do you look at small quakes in your research or just the larger ones?

Has there been an increase in smaller, (unfelt) activity and swarms this year?

Originally posted by Starwise
Bookmarking thread......

I have been watching the news about the EQ in Italy, and this may be a stupid question, please forgive me, but I am trying to learn....Is there any way that these EQs in Italy are related to any underground magma chambers that lead to Mt. Vesuvius ? I know they are very far away from each other....Are there any other volcanoes near the epicenter of Bologna or Modena?

Thats a really good question as I think its related but I honestly do not know if what I feel is fact.

reply to post by PuterMan


yeah seen that page ( and linked to it in my blog page), I was looking for the pdf they do for significant quakes with all the info and maps on one page.

After the 5.8 and a couple of other 5's yesterday I'd think it warrants one.

I was just looking at the INGV list, which is getting quite long now, and the original 5.9ML isn't there any more

was at 20/05/2012 02:03:52

cnt.rm.ingv.it...

translation

This page lists the earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 2.0 located in Italy by the INGV National Seismic Network of the last 30 days. Information on previous earthquakes of magnitude or less than 2.0 can be extracted from the database ISIDe. They also reported significant earthquakes in other areas of the world. In cases where a seismic event has been affected, it is however shown in the list.
The values ​​of hypocentral coordinates and represent the best estimate of the magnitude with the data available at the time. Any new data or analysis may be varied to current estimates of the location and magnitude.

reply to post by Tykonos


Yes I do look at smaller quakes, but normally nothing globally under 4.5

Nothing of any significance down to that level. ~650 mag 5 over 150 days, i.e. about 4 a day is about the right level for 'normal'.

There are obviously two exceptions to the rule ate present being Italy and Japan. I don't believe the Japan 'swarm' is out of the ordinary, but the Italy one certainly is.

reply to post by muzzy


You mean on this page? earthquake.usgs.gov...

Looks as if they don't think it was significant enough. Yet Argentina 6.7 is????

Originally posted by rickymouse
I got the feeling that we're goina have a big quake in the next week. I have nothing more than a feeling. Getting too quiet again.

you're not the only one. all day i have felt like something terrible was about to happen, but not necessarily today.

Soon.

If anyone has a chance, go sit in your car for a while while it's just in park on flat ground.
Be very still. Make sure there is no wind to vibrate against your car. Shocks in a car are made to kind of bounce to things you wouldn't normally feel just standing on the ground... but if you feel something and you go out and sit low to the ground and be very very still, you might feel it very slightly as well... if you feel anything at all that is.

maybe they are working on something near me... I don't know.

i swear I hear a siren. I have heard this before around here but not in a while. I don't "hear" it exactly... just barely. I can easily tell the sound of the pitch, like if it went away... I'd still remember that pitch... it just isn't going away.

maybe they are doing something at the base...you know, one of these exercises or something... maybe that is all it is but i have just had this sickening feeling all day. Haven't felt good in a while (some of which i have attributed to soda... the arthritis part) but today i just felt like puking my guts up. Terrible anxiety and nausea today on top of the shortness of breath and chest pains and all that. Today it got really bad.

that noise is making me feel really weird on top of all the other stuff I've been hearing lately.

I think I read somewhere Italy had a significant quake in the 1300's but dont hold me to it. Im really wondering and will research it in a few but Im reminded of the sleeping prophet speaking about "europe disappearing in a blink of an eye". Thats a dreadful statement to make and I hope it would never happen.

Paranoid? Yup!!!

Did anyone notice that 4.0 around southern Cali? Just kinda looked interesting.push, push.

Originally posted by MamaJ
I think I read somewhere Italy had a significant quake in the 1300's but dont hold me to it.

Yep,
MAG, YEAR/MONTH/DAY, LAT, LONG, LOCATION, DEATHS
6.9, 1348/1/25, 46.37, 13.58, Austria:Villach/Italy/Slovenia, 5000-40000

I'm having trouble seeing my icons on Google Maps right now, but see if you can view them
Interactive map, Italian Quakes 6+ 1200-1400

If that doesn't work, heres ye olde map/list version

MAP#, MAG, YEAR/MONTH/DAY, LAT, LONG, LOCATION, DEATHS
1, 6.8, 1222/12/25, 45.48, 10.23, Italy:Basso Bresciano, 2800-12000
2, 6.2, 1279/4/30, 43.1, 12.93, Italy:Camerio
3, 6.2, 1279/5/1, 44.02, 11.82, Italy:Fontella
4, 6.8, 1293/9/4, 41.3, 14.55, Italy:Bojano, many
5, 6.6, 1298/12/1, 42.55, 12.83, Italy: Poggio Bustone,Spoleto,Rietti, many
6, 6.5, 1328/12/4, 42.85, 13.02, Italy:Norcia,Le Preci, 5000
7, 6.9, 1348/1/25, 46.37, 13.58, Austria:Villach/Italy/Slovenia, 5000-40000
8, 6.7, 1349/9/9, 41.48, 14.07, Italy:Sant/Elia Fiumerapido, 800-2000
9, 6.3, 1361/7/7, 41.23, 15.45, Italy:Ascoli Satriano, 4000
source: Utsu/iisee

UPDATE to post by PuterMan to show chart of quakes


For interest I charted the previous year counts of quakes above Magnitude 4.5 using USGS and EMSC. The two charts are shown below (click for full size). For those newer lurkers and posters on the thread this shows the daily count of earthquakes over 4.5, the daily number being the left hand vertical axis, and the red line is the cumulative total of quakes over the time selected - in this case one year. As you can see the angle of the red line is steady all the way across which indicates that on average the number of quakes daily has not changed significantly. The average number of earthquakes over 4.5 is 13 daily.



If we look at energy over the same period we see a very different red line which demonstrates what happens to the line when things change significantly.



On this red line the smaller 'bumps' are the mag 7+ quakes and aside from a few small jumps upwards nothing much shows until we hit the 8.2 and 8.6 in April which significantly changed the amount of energy released in total. In fact those 2 quakes at ~80 megatons of TNT (EMSC - see below) were ~4 times the total of the rest of the quakes for the year. Another demonstration of why overall earthquake numbers are not so significant. Where they matter is locally where they are an indicator of things going on, unless they are sufficient in number to alter the global graph and that would be unusual. Even 25,000 or more quakes after the 7.2 at Baja California in 2010 did not alter the global line as they were all under Mag 4.5 with very few exceptions.




By the way the reason on the energy chart that USGS is showing twice the energy released is because on each of the large mag 8 quakes they are two points higher than EMSC.

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
emsc,2012-04-11 10:43:09, 0.801, 92.441, 8.0, 10.0, Off W Coast Of Northern Sumatra
usgs,2012-04-11 10:43:09, 0.773, 92.452, 8.2, 16.4, Off W. Coast Of Northern Sumatra
usgs,2012-04-11 08:38:37, 2.311, 93.063, 8.6, 22.9, Off W. Coast Of Northern Sumatra
emsc,2012-04-11 08:38:35, 2.368, 93.166, 8.4, 10.0, Off W Coast Of Northern Sumatra

Because a two point difference represents twice the energy released EMSC have 80 Megatons against USGS 160 Megatons. (And the scientists are so blasé about a couple of points of magnitude! Yes it can be up to .5 mag out - that is over FOUR times the energy.)

I am resolved to do my annual report next year on BOTH providers to see what the difference is.

Oh boy these lunar/celestial pages are taking longer and longer. This one took nearly a day and I am three behind right now.

Magnitude 6.7 Santiago del Estero. Argentina 28-May-12 (b000a0z0) Lunar/Celestial Data

There is more data to be used on each of these but I am building up slowly to the full gamut. I am trying to automate as much as possible. I will be adding text data later so someone can go back over these at some time in the future and possible glean some useful or otherwise information.

reply to post by PuterMan


Just to prove I can take any side in a debate, I'll now fight with Puterman and say he is wrong and that everything is 'normal'. A couple of days ago, I was about to say "everything is too quiet", and as I was just going to say that, a few 6+ and 5+s started showing up about on schedule. So, as I looked at things, nothing jumped out.

I have been on both sides of the "preshock/aftershock" debate. But to me, Italy is following a 'normal' pattern. It is obvious that the 6M was the "mainshock". And that the swarm, is just aftershocks. Puterman, I'm sure you must mean it's out of the ordinary in a statistical sense. Meaning, Italy doesn't often get large quakes and lots of aftershocks. Italian quakes are not rare, but also, they are not as common as they are in other regions. I think I'm just looking for an argument and want to split hairs.

Impossible to prove, but interesting nonetheless is that around the time the Italian aftershocks returned, Bulgaria chimed in. I was wondering about remote triggering, but then it was only one quake and life is a coincidence.

I am still interested in Central and South America. After a bit of a lull, South America looks very normal with lots of quakes. This following a big cluster in Central America. Now Berkely has reported on Volcano Watch that Columbia is warning of an eruption. Columbia has been seismically active in the last couple weeks.

Somewhere along the line from Mexico, down to the tip of South America, there is a cork waiting to be popped. Over the last decade or so, South East Asia along with Japan have been on the move. I think now it's South America's turn to give a big push. That equal and opposite reaction thingy. I could be wrong and North American moves big time. But hey, no one in Canada or the U.S. really takes it too seriously, sadly, and since we are all acting as if it's business as normal, I'll do that as well, and pretend it won't happen, and shrug my shoulders in a pathetic gesture of apathetic denial. sigh

I just want to remind you all that Japan has take all their nuclear reactors off line. They will most likely never start them back up. The Japanese have learned. The hard way. It's too bad the U.S. will have to learn the hard way. We in the "West" pretend to be educated and intelligent. Yet, we make the same mistakes over and over again. And then, even understanding the lesson, deluded ourselves into thinking we can't change, and we resign ourselves to live with the pollution and the danger. Hey, life is risky I suppose. Driving a car, or walking across the street are dangerous things.

Sorry,

rambling...
carry on and ignore me please
Wait, I found a You Tube video about a swarm of earthquakes that was plaguing Reno Nevada a long while back.

It's nothing special or out of the ordinary, it was just interesting is all...

www.youtube.com...

Top thread, PuterMan, I always read when it appears on 'recent posts' in case it's the big one somewhere. Been watching RSOE-EDIS for ages now, never seen so many aftershocks as in Italy at the moment. Seems like a big ring all around Santorini as well, wonder if it could indicate magma pressure building under the centre.
Hope you don't mind my tiny 'tagging' post, but I can get back here easier now

By reading this article I think its safe to say that even European leaders are coo coo for cocoa puffs. zen-haven.dk...

I am no expert.... Very illiterate when it comes to quakes and volcanic activity but it could in fact be related to magma. The Italy quake that is. I also find it hard to believe all of the recent quake activity since the 20th of May are aftershocks.

Puterman when you look at the signatures do they ALL look like aftershocks?? Thanks :-)

ETA: in an earlier post I wrote about a concern of mine with Bulgarias supervolcano.... Well... Bulgaria .. Bolivia... Whatever lol. BOLIVIA's supervolcano ( Uturuncu) that has been on the rise is...well.....should be a concern to all of us I would think because we are only studying it as of late in depth. Its rising supposedly at a rapid rate and I for one want to know why and what does it mean for us? Here is an artcle.... www.dailymail.co.uk...

How would it be actively growing and not causing any thing out of the norm??