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Taiwanese election : January 14 2012... peace or WW3?

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posted on Dec, 21 2011 @ 01:26 PM
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For some background story... Taiwan has been divided with mainland China since the civil war. Taiwan wants to stay independent but China of course wants them back in...

Using force if necessary. The US has the obligation under treaty to arm Taiwan against China but not to defend Taiwan against China if it attacks...that is only promises... For more info : Taiwan Relations Act.

All the rhetoric from China concerning Taiwan ain't the usual sabre rattling. Taiwan is considered ``Chinese territory``. If they gonna fight WW3 to protect Iran you think they won't fight WW3 to get what they consider their territory? Yeah.

I doubt China would back down and the US would probably fold to China before going to WW3. China has the hardware, the nationalism (it's considered home territory after all) and the economic power (1+ trillion in US debt) to win a war against Taiwan... they have 1800 missiles aimed at Taiwan. There's dozens of air bases in range of Taiwan. Not to mention submarines. EMP missiles and amphibious attack boats.

Here's Taiwan's Taichung airport : (thanks to BO XIAN for the correction)
Google map

And here's what was built in China in the desert...
Google map

Seems to me that it's the same layout... what is China doing? Training to take it over...

And about war games...
Taiwan wins in war simulation: report

Read another war game (can't find the link) a while back they did, Taiwan lost in 3 days...

Tough Odds In A China Battle

Wargaming and simulations have shown that the U.S. would generate a 6-1 kill ratio over Chinese aircraft in the event of a conflict over the Taiwan Strait, but predictions are that the Americans would still lose.

Even if every U.S. missile destroyed an opponent, there would still be enough surviving attackers to shred U.S. tankers, command and control and intelligence gathering aircraft, says Andrew Davies, program director for operations and capabilities, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in an interview with Aviation Week.

“The reason [the U.S.] lost was because the Chinese sortie rates and persistence carried the day,” Davies says. “Any American aircraft was operating out of Guam or Okinawa because the airfields in Taiwan were taken out in the first half hour [of the conflict]. So [U.S.] time on station over the Strait is quite limited.”


The nationalists trying to calm the game..
Taiwan opposition candidate vows peace with China

China doesn't want to see the nationalists win :
Taiwan opposition claims China interfering in polls

The latest numbers from Taiwan since the election is less than a month away...

Taiwan presidential election polls

Prediction market forecasts : Nationalists : 50.1% Pro-China : 42.6%
Polling firm forecasts : Nationalists : 47% Pro-China : 48%
Three-way race : Nationalists : 35.4% Pro-China : 35.9%
Two-way race : Nationalists : 36.58% Pro-China : 39.61%

What could also give the election to nationalists :
New pro-China candidate declares for Taiwan presidency
Dividing votes...

It's too close to call... they are basically tied... it's gonna be one hell of an election... which could lead to a big geopolitical cluster****.... this is gonna be one to watch.

Remember, last time, if the nationalists had won, China was preparing to go to war... and this time, the nationalists have a shot at winning and the Chinese economy is going down and there's lots of protests and rebellion... the Chinese government would love a distraction that props up nationalism.

It might not end up in WW3, might be a partial blockade.

One of the scariest tactics is the partial blockade. This would block access to Taiwan’s main ports for a short time, and then depart. This would cause shipping costs (especially insurance) to rise, and some customers would seek other suppliers. Thus Taiwan firms would lose sales, and the population would become demoralized.



Bottom line : will the nationalists win the election? If they win, will China attack? If China attacks, what will the US do?

Hopefully nothing happens and peace prevails.
edit on 21-12-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)




posted on Dec, 21 2011 @ 01:31 PM
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Interesting comparison of the airports. S&F.



posted on Dec, 21 2011 @ 01:43 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


THANKS for lots of info.

However, that's NOT Taiwan's main airport.

That's the Taichung airport in the roughly middle Western side of the island.

Taoyuan is where the larger international airport is--a suburb of Taipei.

Taichung's airport might be considered more strategically useful.



posted on Dec, 23 2011 @ 02:23 PM
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Well apparently, carrier strike group 70, headed by the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson will be in the area for the election...



Carl Vinson : Under way to a deployment in the western Pacific region.



posted on Dec, 25 2011 @ 03:51 AM
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I wonder how will the US react when China takes Taiwan. Will the US engage forces? If they do, they will need to attack bases inside China otherwise they will lose. And if they engage with only one aircraft carrier, they gonna get sunk.

My bet is that (if China attacks Taiwan if the nationalists are elected) the US will let Taiwan get run over. There will be huge backlash against Obama, but that's all part of the plan for the elite... let controlled China be seen as the big bad threat.... so that the warmongering continues.

Now the big question if that all goes down... how will the American people react? Will they support even more Ron Paul to not get involved? Or will they support warmongering Romney?

I hope to God nothing happens even if the nationalists are elected.

Answer in 3 weeks.



posted on Dec, 26 2011 @ 11:35 PM
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Latest polls... The nationalists are WINNING....

2012 ELECTIONS: Predictions diverge on Tsai’s chances

Two attempts to predict the Jan. 14 presidential election yesterday showed very different results, with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) leading President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by 7.4 percentage points in one survey and trailing him by 0.4 percentage points in the other.


Even if in the second poll he's just losing by 0.4%... that's basically the margin error... If this continues, the nationalists are gonna win...

Maybe China will pull something a few days before the election to sway it toward the pro-China party... we'll see.



posted on Dec, 29 2011 @ 11:43 AM
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Latest...

2012 ELECTIONS: Poll shows Tsai winning by 2.1 percentage points

If voting day were tomorrow, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would lead her main rival, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), by 2.1 percentage points, a poll by the Taiwan Brain Trust showed yesterday.

According to the survey, DPP Chairperson Tsai and her running mate, DPP Secretary-General Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全), would obtain 40.4 percent of the vote, against Ma and Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) at 38.3, while People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and his vice presidential candidate, Lin Ruey-shiung (林瑞雄), would garner 7.3 percent.


It's gonna be pretty close.

In other news, the Carl Vinson is in Hong Kong and will leave for the middle-east on Friday.
edit on 29-12-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 2 2012 @ 03:12 PM
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Latest :

2012 ELECTIONS: Spying documents shredded: source

A legislator accused the prosecutor-general of dragging his feet in opening up an investigation into alleged government spying on candidates

The Ministry of Justice’ Investigation Bureau (MJIB) has ordered that all documents related to monitoring President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) opponents in the presidential election must be destroyed after the illegal practice was disclosed by the media, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, citing an anonymous source inside the bureau.

Documents provided by the source seem to confirm the existence of a project, codenamed “An-Ping-Shun Project,” to monitor DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and People First Party (PFP) candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜), DPP lawyer Hsu Kuo-yong (徐國勇) said at a DPP legislative caucus press conference.

Ma is such a POS...if this is true. And this might give the election for the nationalists.

2012 ELECTIONS: Last DPP poll has Tsai ahead by 1 point

The poll showed that the DPP has made great strides in northern and central Taiwan, but voter turnout may be the deciding factor on Jan. 14



posted on Jan, 5 2012 @ 07:01 AM
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Joint elections will create need for two Cabinet resignations before May 20

he Cabinet will resign ahead of the start of the eighth legislature on Feb. 1 and then again before the president-elect inauguration on May 20

So even if the election is on January 14, if the DPP wins, they are still just gonna take power on May 20... which leaves plenty of time between the election and the take of power for China to ``take action``.

So this whole thing ain't over by a long shot.



posted on Jan, 5 2012 @ 07:16 AM
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Well well well...

Chin a planning to fire 'carrier killer' missile ahead of Taiwan elections

Taiwan News said back in mid December that China is planning to fire its Dong-Feng-21D ballistic missile at the Pacific Ocean in the days leading up to Taiwan's presidential election, scheduled for Jan 14.

The Dong-Feng is the Chinese military's "carrier killer" ballistic missile, capable of disabling U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. The 21D is an anti-ship missile that will drop vertically from space, as opposed to horizontally like most other anti-ship missiles. This flight path makes it infinitely more difficult to track and take down, and far more deadly.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:56 PM
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Ma campaign has supporters looking worried

Attempting to consolidate support in pan-blue strongholds in the final days of the presidential election campaign, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) yesterday drew a passionate response in New Taipei City (新北市) and Hsinchu County, as residents lined up on the streets to cheer his motorcade.

His appearance at traditional markets also caused a stir.

However, his momentum has been slowed by the lukewarm response he received in central and southern parts of the country.

During his motorcade campaign in Chiayi, Yunlin and Changhua counties on Saturday, cheering from residents who came out on the streets was sporadic at best.


Beijing tempering its remarks ahead of Taiwan’s polls

A source familiar with China’s policy toward Taiwan said Beijing has learned from previous elections and is ready for a win by either the KMT or DPP

China has forgone blustery warnings and war games in the run-up to Taiwan’s presidential election this weekend, and will likely take a measured response even if the independence-leaning opposition unseats President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).

“We are prepared for either scenario. There won’t be a big difference whoever wins,” a source familiar with China’s policy toward Taiwan said, requesting anonymity to avoid political repercussions.

“If Tsai Ing-wen wins, the mainland will ‘listen to her words and watch her deeds’ in the beginning,” a second source with ties to the top Chinese leadership said, also asking not to be identified.

Hopefully.

Lee Teng-hui to endorse DPP ticket

The former president said Taiwan needs a president who is competent, strong, responsible, approachable and harbors compassion for the people

Edge to DPP.

Taiwan businessmen head home from China to vote

More than 200,000 Taiwanese businessmen and their relatives currently based in China are expected to return to the island to vote in the presidential elections, a business group estimated Tuesday.

"This time the election is very tight and more businessmen than previously intend to come back to vote to protect their investment rights," Lin said.


All this looks like good news. Seems to me China is gonna let the election go the way the Taiwanese want... and even if DPP is elected they won't do squat...

The ball is in the DPP's court. If they get elected, hopefully they don't pull something stupid.



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 01:14 AM
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Taiwan’s Tsai lacks the power to make changes

On January 14, the architect of the "special state-to-state doctrine," which once brought the Taiwan Straits to the brink of war, will run for the leadership of Taiwan.

Tsai Ing-wen of the anti-unification Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is competing with incumbent Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the People's First Party's (PFP) James Soong, who like Ma is pro-eventual unification.

Ma is likely to be the winner, but if the DPP were nonetheless to manage a return to power, a long hangover would follow.

So the Chinese government mouthpiece finally talks... and is endorsing Ma. Surprise... not.

Since there's another pro-China party running, Tsai could very well gain the advantage.

US congressman expresses concern over US neutrality

A fifth member of the US Congress has written to US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton expressing fears that Washington has failed to “stay neutral” in the run-up to Taiwan’s elections.

US Representative Bill Johnson said that while he was aware of the US Department of State’s assurances that it was not taking sides, “I still have reservations.”

A member of the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, Johnson is the latest of a growing bipartisan group to express concern.

“Taiwan’s recent inclusion as a candidate for the US Visa Waiver Program, the large number of pre-election visits to Taiwan by high-level administration officials and most recently the statement released by the Taiwanese National Security Council on its meeting with the American Institute in Taiwan give me pause,” he said in the letter.

“Whether intended or not, the timing of these gestures give the impression that the US continues to support the current government of Taiwan and its non-confrontational policy towards China,” he said.


China may punish Taiwan if Tsai wins: US academic

A DPP win would be viewed as a setback for Hu Jintao and could lead others in China to push for a tougher policy, Phil Saunders said

Beijing could try to punish Taiwan if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins the election on Saturday, a US academic told a conference in Washington.

Chinese policy toward Taiwan is personally associated with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and a Tsai victory would be seen as a setback for him, Phil Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, told the Heritage Foundation conference.

This situation could lead others in Beijing to push for tougher policies, he said.

Apparently China will watch what Tsai do before doing something. And Jintao will be out of power by October anyways.


President Ma: "you don't wnt to provoke China like the previous administration did for eight years. That will not being any good to Taiwan."


President Ma says he has "urged China to stay away from the election" in Taiwan and not to try and influence the result.


Ma says Taiwan wants to join US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Trying to say that he's not 100% pro-China... I don't think it'll work.

Taiwan President Ma says needs re-election bc only "experienced leader" can handle coming financial probs. Same for cross-Strait relations.

Right. Experienced leader who doesn't know squat in economics. The guy is a LAWYER. Tsai got a PHD in economics... so PLEASE.



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 05:15 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Ma is disliked even among his pan-blue supporters. The belief among some is that the Tsai will prevail but Ma will invalidate the results causing civil unrest and the Mainland will step in and intervene. It's good to see that at least some of the US leadership is not ready to completely throw Taiwan to China.

Just wanted to add that the Taiwanese victory scenario in your OP is a bit far-fetched. I think there was a Rand study in 2009 that simulated a Chicom victory even with an astronomically high kill ratio by F-22 US fighters. As a Taiwanese national, I wish Taiwan was capable of defending itself, but the reality is that the Mainland would overwhelm Taiwan, unless the US intervenes in a big way and based upon the Pro China rhetoric coming out of Washington, this does not seem likely.
edit on 12-1-2012 by Myopic because: (no reason given)

edit on 12-1-2012 by Myopic because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 05:26 PM
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reply to post by Myopic
 




Ma is disliked even among his pan-blue supporters.

Yeah for now I'm giving the election to Tsai.


The belief among some is that the Tsai will prevail but Ma will invalidate the results causing civil unrest and the Mainland will step in and intervene.

That is what I've been thinking for the last few days.


It's good to see that at least some of the US leadership is not ready to completely throw Taiwan to China.

Some of the leadership...


I think there was a Rand study in 2009 that simulated a Chicom victory even with an astronomically high kill ratio by F-22 US fighters. As a Taiwanese national, I wish Taiwan was capable of defending itself, but the reality is that the Mainland would overwhelm Taiwan, unless the US intervenes in a big way and based upon the Pro China rhetoric coming out of Washington, this does not seem likely.

Ya. That's what I said in my OP. China would take over Taiwan very fast, even if the US were to intervene, they would lose.

And yep, seeing how Washington is licking the boots of China, they wouldn't do a thing.

Are you from Taiwan? Anyway, good to see a new member, welcome!
edit on 12-1-2012 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 05:35 PM
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On the airport comparisions. The active airforce base next to the "copy" of the tiawan one had at least 7 y-8 transports on the taramac.

They COULD be training paratroops for an airfield seizure mission. Seizing that airfield on the west coast of tiawan would be crucial for logistics and close in airsport during any invasion.

The Y-8 can carry up to 82 airbrone troops. Times 7.....574 troops equals about a reinforced battalion. Enough to take an airport (that's about what the minimum force the US would use on an airborne airfield seziure), especially if any near by troop concentrations had been bombed.



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 05:47 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Taiwan is a unique situation that is based on Cold War precepts and without much hope for avoidance.

I think Taiwan will become a flashpoint in the near future and it will redefine the way the US and China see each other for the next century.



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 05:51 PM
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reply to post by SrWingCommander
 




They COULD be training paratroops for an airfield seizure mission. Seizing that airfield on the west coast of tiawan would be crucial for logistics and close in airsport during any invasion.

Yeah that's pretty much the assumption I was making.



The Y-8 can carry up to 82 airbrone troops. Times 7.....574 troops equals about a reinforced battalion. Enough to take an airport (that's about what the minimum force the US would use on an airborne airfield seziure), especially if any near by troop concentrations had been bombed.

Thanks for that.

reply to post by redoubt
 




I think Taiwan will become a flashpoint in the near future and it will redefine the way the US and China see each other for the next century.

Redefine the way they see each other? If the US military leadership doesn't already know what's going on and is likely to happen in Taiwan, they are fools.
edit on 12-1-2012 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 06:32 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Yes, I am from Taiwan and thank you for writing about the topic of Taiwan. While the rest of the world is focused on Iran, Taiwan, as you indicated, could very well be the flash point which starts WW3.

I just want to reiterate that Taiwan has done nothing to incite the PRC. The PRC is clearly the aggressor here. It seems all of their military enhancements are designed specifically for taking out Taiwan. Also, Taiwanese do not want to "reunify" with the mainland. I know you probably already know all this, but it seems that most people think that the Taiwanese people want to "reunify" with China but it's the Taiwanese government that is preventing this from occurring. Taiwan and China are different countries much like Canada and the United States are even though the populations may have a similar ethnic background.



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 06:46 PM
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reply to post by Myopic
 




I just want to reiterate that Taiwan has done nothing to incite the PRC.

Indeed.

The PRC is clearly the aggressor here.

If they attack out of the blue, without any REAL provocation (like Tsai being elected and declaring independence) certainly.

It seems all of their military enhancements are designed specifically for taking out Taiwan.

Yep.

Also, Taiwanese do not want to "reunify" with the mainland. I know you probably already know all this, but it seems that most people think that the Taiwanese people want to "reunify" with China but it's the Taiwanese government that is preventing this from occurring.

Yep. Taiwanese people like the current system where they do not get oppressed by the government like people are in China.

Taiwan and China are different countries much like Canada and the United States are even though the populations may have a similar ethnic background.

I don't know the Taiwanese/Chinese people enough to say that... but probably.

And as you said, NOBODY is watching this... at all.
edit on 12-1-2012 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 12 2012 @ 07:06 PM
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reply to post by Vitchilo
 


Thanks for the thread.

10-12 years ago, when I was living in Taipei, some prophetic type(s) were asserting that the Taiwanese and China would work things out economically and politically and avoid an attack . . . particularly IF the Christians on both sides would pray earnestly accordingly.

It sounded good. Was sort of plausible.

Still, I was skeptical. I still am.

It could certainly happen just that way.

However, imho, I think there's a great risk that China would still come and massacre masses of leaders and wy-gwo-ren . . . to insure their folks were very much left in charge.

And, another couple . . . wy gwo ren (foreigners/barbarians) who've lived and worked there for decades . . .

Christian couple . . . EACH INDEPENDENTLY had essentially the same dreams . . . of the Mainland forces taking over Taiwan and shooting dead 100% of the 60,000 wy gwo ren living and working there.

That's also quite plausible . . . given all the values and sensibilities of Beijing . . . all the more so if Beijing is in the process of attacking the USA's West Coast, Hawaii etc.



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