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Wargaming and simulations have shown that the U.S. would generate a 6-1 kill ratio over Chinese aircraft in the event of a conflict over the Taiwan Strait, but predictions are that the Americans would still lose.
Even if every U.S. missile destroyed an opponent, there would still be enough surviving attackers to shred U.S. tankers, command and control and intelligence gathering aircraft, says Andrew Davies, program director for operations and capabilities, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in an interview with Aviation Week.
“The reason [the U.S.] lost was because the Chinese sortie rates and persistence carried the day,” Davies says. “Any American aircraft was operating out of Guam or Okinawa because the airfields in Taiwan were taken out in the first half hour [of the conflict]. So [U.S.] time on station over the Strait is quite limited.”
Prediction market forecasts : Nationalists : 50.1% Pro-China : 42.6%
Polling firm forecasts : Nationalists : 47% Pro-China : 48%
Three-way race : Nationalists : 35.4% Pro-China : 35.9%
Two-way race : Nationalists : 36.58% Pro-China : 39.61%
One of the scariest tactics is the partial blockade. This would block access to Taiwan’s main ports for a short time, and then depart. This would cause shipping costs (especially insurance) to rise, and some customers would seek other suppliers. Thus Taiwan firms would lose sales, and the population would become demoralized.
Two attempts to predict the Jan. 14 presidential election yesterday showed very different results, with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) leading President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by 7.4 percentage points in one survey and trailing him by 0.4 percentage points in the other.
If voting day were tomorrow, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would lead her main rival, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), by 2.1 percentage points, a poll by the Taiwan Brain Trust showed yesterday.
According to the survey, DPP Chairperson Tsai and her running mate, DPP Secretary-General Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全), would obtain 40.4 percent of the vote, against Ma and Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) at 38.3, while People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and his vice presidential candidate, Lin Ruey-shiung (林瑞雄), would garner 7.3 percent.
A legislator accused the prosecutor-general of dragging his feet in opening up an investigation into alleged government spying on candidates
The Ministry of Justice’ Investigation Bureau (MJIB) has ordered that all documents related to monitoring President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) opponents in the presidential election must be destroyed after the illegal practice was disclosed by the media, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, citing an anonymous source inside the bureau.
Documents provided by the source seem to confirm the existence of a project, codenamed “An-Ping-Shun Project,” to monitor DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and People First Party (PFP) candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜), DPP lawyer Hsu Kuo-yong (徐國勇) said at a DPP legislative caucus press conference.
The poll showed that the DPP has made great strides in northern and central Taiwan, but voter turnout may be the deciding factor on Jan. 14
he Cabinet will resign ahead of the start of the eighth legislature on Feb. 1 and then again before the president-elect inauguration on May 20
Taiwan News said back in mid December that China is planning to fire its Dong-Feng-21D ballistic missile at the Pacific Ocean in the days leading up to Taiwan's presidential election, scheduled for Jan 14.
The Dong-Feng is the Chinese military's "carrier killer" ballistic missile, capable of disabling U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. The 21D is an anti-ship missile that will drop vertically from space, as opposed to horizontally like most other anti-ship missiles. This flight path makes it infinitely more difficult to track and take down, and far more deadly.
Attempting to consolidate support in pan-blue strongholds in the final days of the presidential election campaign, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) yesterday drew a passionate response in New Taipei City (新北市) and Hsinchu County, as residents lined up on the streets to cheer his motorcade.
His appearance at traditional markets also caused a stir.
However, his momentum has been slowed by the lukewarm response he received in central and southern parts of the country.
During his motorcade campaign in Chiayi, Yunlin and Changhua counties on Saturday, cheering from residents who came out on the streets was sporadic at best.
A source familiar with China’s policy toward Taiwan said Beijing has learned from previous elections and is ready for a win by either the KMT or DPP
China has forgone blustery warnings and war games in the run-up to Taiwan’s presidential election this weekend, and will likely take a measured response even if the independence-leaning opposition unseats President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
“We are prepared for either scenario. There won’t be a big difference whoever wins,” a source familiar with China’s policy toward Taiwan said, requesting anonymity to avoid political repercussions.
“If Tsai Ing-wen wins, the mainland will ‘listen to her words and watch her deeds’ in the beginning,” a second source with ties to the top Chinese leadership said, also asking not to be identified.
The former president said Taiwan needs a president who is competent, strong, responsible, approachable and harbors compassion for the people
More than 200,000 Taiwanese businessmen and their relatives currently based in China are expected to return to the island to vote in the presidential elections, a business group estimated Tuesday.
"This time the election is very tight and more businessmen than previously intend to come back to vote to protect their investment rights," Lin said.
On January 14, the architect of the "special state-to-state doctrine," which once brought the Taiwan Straits to the brink of war, will run for the leadership of Taiwan.
Tsai Ing-wen of the anti-unification Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is competing with incumbent Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the People's First Party's (PFP) James Soong, who like Ma is pro-eventual unification.
Ma is likely to be the winner, but if the DPP were nonetheless to manage a return to power, a long hangover would follow.
A fifth member of the US Congress has written to US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton expressing fears that Washington has failed to “stay neutral” in the run-up to Taiwan’s elections.
US Representative Bill Johnson said that while he was aware of the US Department of State’s assurances that it was not taking sides, “I still have reservations.”
A member of the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, Johnson is the latest of a growing bipartisan group to express concern.
“Taiwan’s recent inclusion as a candidate for the US Visa Waiver Program, the large number of pre-election visits to Taiwan by high-level administration officials and most recently the statement released by the Taiwanese National Security Council on its meeting with the American Institute in Taiwan give me pause,” he said in the letter.
“Whether intended or not, the timing of these gestures give the impression that the US continues to support the current government of Taiwan and its non-confrontational policy towards China,” he said.
A DPP win would be viewed as a setback for Hu Jintao and could lead others in China to push for a tougher policy, Phil Saunders said
Beijing could try to punish Taiwan if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins the election on Saturday, a US academic told a conference in Washington.
Chinese policy toward Taiwan is personally associated with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and a Tsai victory would be seen as a setback for him, Phil Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, told the Heritage Foundation conference.
This situation could lead others in Beijing to push for tougher policies, he said.
President Ma: "you don't wnt to provoke China like the previous administration did for eight years. That will not being any good to Taiwan."
President Ma says he has "urged China to stay away from the election" in Taiwan and not to try and influence the result.
Ma says Taiwan wants to join US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Taiwan President Ma says needs re-election bc only "experienced leader" can handle coming financial probs. Same for cross-Strait relations.
Ma is disliked even among his pan-blue supporters.
The belief among some is that the Tsai will prevail but Ma will invalidate the results causing civil unrest and the Mainland will step in and intervene.
It's good to see that at least some of the US leadership is not ready to completely throw Taiwan to China.
I think there was a Rand study in 2009 that simulated a Chicom victory even with an astronomically high kill ratio by F-22 US fighters. As a Taiwanese national, I wish Taiwan was capable of defending itself, but the reality is that the Mainland would overwhelm Taiwan, unless the US intervenes in a big way and based upon the Pro China rhetoric coming out of Washington, this does not seem likely.
They COULD be training paratroops for an airfield seizure mission. Seizing that airfield on the west coast of tiawan would be crucial for logistics and close in airsport during any invasion.
The Y-8 can carry up to 82 airbrone troops. Times 7.....574 troops equals about a reinforced battalion. Enough to take an airport (that's about what the minimum force the US would use on an airborne airfield seziure), especially if any near by troop concentrations had been bombed.
I think Taiwan will become a flashpoint in the near future and it will redefine the way the US and China see each other for the next century.
I just want to reiterate that Taiwan has done nothing to incite the PRC.
The PRC is clearly the aggressor here.
It seems all of their military enhancements are designed specifically for taking out Taiwan.
Also, Taiwanese do not want to "reunify" with the mainland. I know you probably already know all this, but it seems that most people think that the Taiwanese people want to "reunify" with China but it's the Taiwanese government that is preventing this from occurring.
Taiwan and China are different countries much like Canada and the United States are even though the populations may have a similar ethnic background.