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Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes: Global Warming failure.

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posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 11:55 AM
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www.ottowacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5847032



Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next.

Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.

Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year ... Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”


Statement made about a week ago, and NOTHING in the lame stream media. You know why? Because it is another nail in the coffin of the Global Warming religion.

When data is analyzed properly, and is not deleted, distorted and manipulated, Global Warming fails every time.

Imagine how many insurance policies were sold because of these faulty forecasts. Imagine how many tourist dollars were lost by people deciding not to vacation during a high hurricane forecast season. Imagine how this affected oil prices.


edit on 13-12-2011 by Carseller4 because: ...




posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:21 PM
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so how in any way is this related to global warming?



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:29 PM
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reply to post by Jbones
 
What a nice looking question

2nd line........



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:45 PM
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Originally posted by Jbones
so how in any way is this related to global warming?


Because Global Warming is based on prediction of future climate events.

These famed forecasters have stated it's not possible.

Global Warming whackos used the 2005 Hurricane Season as proof of Global Warming. The silence from this crowd in now deafening.

Coincides with the UN trying to tax countries for Global Warming. No wonder the lack of coverage on this.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:46 PM
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reply to post by Carseller4
 


Because Global Warming is based on prediction of future climate events.


Hurricanes are weather events, not climate "events". Though weather is related to climate, they are far from being the same thing.

Climate science has more to do with trends than anything else. The effects of those trends on weather are much harder to deduce accurately. Small fluctuations within a trend can have major effects on weather.

So, no. This has nothing to do with the accuracy of global climate models.

edit on 12/13/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:50 PM
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I wish GW was never mentioned.

This failure of hurricane forecasting and all the related expenses and hysterics is important enough to stand on its own without having GW dragged into this and since it has been the thread, as far as the subject is concerned, is basically ruined.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:51 PM
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I think it is awesome that these respected scientists are admitting that they can't accurately predict what's going to happen with hurricane season. Usually, scientists tend to do the opposite--they act like they know everything even when there are still legitimate questions to be answered. Bravo to them!

Basically, we humans can't know everything, even though we often act like we do. There are so many questions left to be answered.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 12:52 PM
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Or,
they are having trouble with predictions because of global warming.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 01:04 PM
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The meteorologists' entire statement can be found here. It contrasts a bit from what the blogs are claiming. They are not giving up on predictions. Just the December prediction for the number of hurricanes for the next summer.


We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Wednesday April 4, Friday 1 June, and Friday 3 August. We will also be issuing two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the climatological peak of the season from August-October. A verification and discussion of all 2012 forecasts will be issued in late November 2012. All of these forecasts will be available on the web at:

hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu...


edit on 12/13/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)




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