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Advanced Warning of Double Major Storms For UK Next Week - In Depth Analysis (Be Prepared)

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posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 06:59 PM
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I was a bit annoyed by the strong wind here in the UK earlier in the week. It was quite cold and the extra breeze made it more uncomfortable whilst I waited for my bus. I had to stand behind a metal pole to try and get some relief so that my ears didn't freeze.

So it's really nice to known that not one, but two very severe wind storms are predicted on ATS for the next week. This absolutely guarantees there will be no more strong wind for the rest of this week. After all, if it is predicted on ATS, it by definition won't happen.

It's a little like the prediction of a really cold winter in the UK that some meteorologists were predicting earlier this year, even down to -20 celcius. So far it has been a really, really mild winter. In fact last night was the first I remember there even being a frost.




posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:00 PM
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Well this is going to be interesting - I'm moving house on the 16th LOL!
I live in South West England, so I should probably be prepared for this. If if does get bad here I'll probably go for a drive and record... see what happens! I'm not expecting much though.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:07 PM
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The storm in the south of UK in 1987 was devastating but could have been worse had it not been overnight. Is there any idea as to what part of the day it will reach us? The weather we are having reminds me of the run up to the 1987 storm because of the rainfall and winds prior to it..the reason so many trees were uprooted. If this storm hits so many trees will come down and during the day this would be life threatening.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:10 PM
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Great post - thanks OP.
Please can anyone advise on any practical steps re preparing for cat.3 hurricane in central London ?
We live on the 20th floor facing West, so providing the roof holds [touch wood]; what else can we do, apart from bringing the plant-pots inside and stocking up? For example: would cross-taping double glazed windows make any sense? As boarding up is simply not an option. Btw, please can anyone more skilled in interpreting the weather charts confirm that it is the West facing windows that are the most likely to be in the firing line ?
Any tips are appreciated and even if we lucky to be spared this two waves - seems like such odd weather patterns are here to stay - we may as well try to think how to deal with it.
best



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:16 PM
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Will it get weaker as it crosses the Channel? I live in Belgium, near the coast and I'm wondering if I should prepare.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:19 PM
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Last Thursday my partner was making his way back from South Wales and the bridge had been partly closed but he made it back.
As he got closer home, a tree had come down about a mile away. And it was just a little windy, as in rocking a 40 ft tree. I wasn't even scared and I am scared of wind since the 1987 event. (I got some great pictures the next day though.)

I've already started praying.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:52 PM
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Thanks for the advance warning OP, very helpful!

As for those saying "it's only a bit of wind" etc, you should get used tot the term "never before in recorded history", and be prepared in any case. I was around in '87, and that was not pleasant, anything worse is going to be horrible, no matter if you wear a kilt or trousers.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 07:59 PM
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I missed the huge storm in 1987 but can remember the Blizzards of 1978 in Scotland
It is one of the biggest search and rescue operations ever mounted in the UK with 22 helicopters taking part
this is an interesting account from someone involved in the rescue


The cause of all the chaos was a slow-moving deep depression of 963 millibars out in the North Sea with storm force northerly winds on its north-west flank bringing extremely cold and moisture laden clouds from the Arctic. With temperatures at sea level reported as low as -10C there could only be one result, vast quantities of snow blasting south from the Northern Isles into the north of Scotland and extending as far as the southern Cairngorms. The storm engulfed isolated dwellings, trapped motorists, derailed trains, and put TV transmitters, telephone lines and power cables out of action. There were some spectacular sights: trains and road vehicles were buried in mountainous drifts; farm houses and shooting lodges were buried to chimney pot level and others plastered with snow to resemble iced wedding cakes; electricity pylons lay crumpled like match-sticks and telegraph poles by the hundred were snapped in half. Hundreds of people were placed in dangerous survival situations and regrettably 4 people lost their lives.



Probes located two cars buried under fifteen feet of snow but unfortunately the three occupants were already dead. (Two days later some distance away a lone driver was dug out of his car alive after 80 hours under the snow. He was a ladies underwear salesman who had used his samples to supplement his clothing thereby saving himself from at worst, death or at least, serious frostbite.)


www.aircrew-saltire.org...

heres hoping we don't get snow with the hurricane force winds!!
edit on 10-12-2011 by JackieO because: corrected source



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 08:19 PM
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not long got the power back on, more gas for stove and candles needed, cheers for the heads up, gonna have to wrap up for dark and cold again and keep our heads down
thanks again



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 08:28 PM
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I found this for those of us are a bit worried that this may actually happen and we want to be prepared beforehand. I was going to go Christmas present shopping this week but I am going to be making my garden a bit safer.


Some basic preparation and common-sense safety tips will help ensure safety during bad weather. Always have a flashlight, a battery operated radio and, of course, fresh batteries. Have some bottled water handy, as well as food items that don’t need refrigeration or cooking to prepare and make sure you have a non-electric can-opener.
Tips from the Red Cross on preparing for high winds and possible power outages:
Prepare for High Winds:
* Make trees more wind resistant by removing diseased and damaged limbs.
* Move or secure lawn furniture, outdoor decorations or ornaments, trash cans, hanging plants and anything else that can be picked up by wind and become a projectile.
* During the storm, draw blinds and shades over windows. If windows break due to objects blown by the wind, the shades will prevent glass from shattering into your home.
Top Safety Tips for a Power Outage:
* Assemble essential supplies, including: flashlight, batteries, portable radio, at least one gallon of water, and a small supply of food.
* Only use a flashlight for emergency lighting. Due to the extreme risk of fire, do not use candles during a power outage.
* Use the phone for emergencies only. Listening to a portable radio can provide the latest information. Do not call 999 for information – only call to report a life-threatening emergency.
* Do not run a generator inside a home or garage. If you use a generator, connect the equipment you want to power directly to the outlets on the generator. Do not connect a generator to a home's electrical system.
* Turn off electrical equipment
you were using when the power went out. Leave one light on so you know when the power comes back on.
* Avoid opening the refrigerator and freezer.
* If you use medication that requires refrigeration, most can be kept in a closed refrigerator for several hours without a problem. If unsure, check with your physician or pharmacist.
* Stay focused on the risks of smoke and carbon monoxide. If you do not have one buy a carbon monoxide alarm, they are available at most hardware stores. If you have one, check the battery to make sure it is working. If the alarm sounds: get to fresh air by going outside. Contact the fire department before you go back inside your home.


wavoad.org...


Winter’s on the way again, and many people across the UK will still remember how last year's severe weather struck quickly and caused major disruption to thousands of lives.

But the good news is that it’s easy to make sure you’re prepared for the worst – by preparing a basic ‘grab bag’ for use in emergencies.

In Scotland the Red Cross, in partnership with the Scottish Government, has launched a Ready for Winter campaign. We’re promoting a simple message: spend a little time now gathering some essential items in a handy bag, and you’ll be prepared if sudden bad weather means you get stranded at home or – even worse – while on the move.
What should go in your bag at home?

* Torch
* Battery radio
* Toiletries / first aid kit
* Long-life food and bottles of water
* Important documents (eg. insurance policy)
* List of emergency contact numbers (see right for downloadable templates)
* Spare keys to your home / car
* Pencil, paper, penknife and whistle

What should go in your travel bag?

* Torch
* Battery radio
* Mobile phone
* Cash and credit cards
* List of emergency contact numbers (see right for downloadable templates)
* Winter boots, warm clothing and waterproofs
* Ready-to-eat food, bottled water and warm drink in flask


www.redcross.org.uk...


Motorists:
Stop and offer roadside assistance if you see someone's car has broken down during severe weather; you could be saving someone's life.
In areas where heavy snow is likely to fall, always carry a blanket in your car. Also, carry a torch, a brightly-coloured headscarf, matches, some chocolate bars, a flask of hot soup, a mobile phone and a sign that says HELP in big bright letters. If you break down or get stuck in snow, don’t leave your car – it will get noticed before you will. Put the HELP sign in your window, tie the headscarf to your car's aerial, turn off the engine and curl up in the blanket. Don’t run your car's engine for more than a few minutes at a time and make sure its exhaust isn’t blocked.


www.redcross.org.uk...

Be safe all.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 09:49 PM
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(as its 3.27am I haven't read the whole thread but thought I would add a little)
Situated on the NW coast of Ireland I have been watching these 2 storms closely. Now it must be said they COULD turn out to be catastrophic, especially the 2nd of them but the charts in the opening post are updated every 6 hours or so and as of now the first of the storms is downgrading with each run. Any chart more than 5-6 days out is commonly known as an FI chart ( fantasy island).
These charts are computer models and subject to change as an event gets closer. There are around 5 commonly used and referenced computer models and each one differs in its inturpretation of data and forecasts it's programmed probable outcome.
As an event comes closer the models begin to fall in line and when there is enough agreement that is what you get in your weather forecast. The UK met office and the Irish met office use different models for reference and hence at this stage their forecasts are different for both events.
The first storm will more than likely be a storm alright but at this stage nothing cataclysmic. Care should be taken and unnecessary travel etc avoided.
As for the 2nd storm well at the minute that's a whole different matter entirely. If, and it is a big if this far out, the storm went as forecast on the latest charts it would be biblical ! Wind speeds are literally off the charts as is pressure. Isobars are packed to tightly the look like one big blob. Chart watchers with many years experience have never seen anything like it even on FI charts.
IF it happened as now forecast the distruction and lose of life would be serious.
I am sure the the OP will furnish this thread with charts as they become available. In my experience the vast majority of these storms downgrade and/or shift course northwards. Maybe just maybe this is the one that won't. Only time will tell. Keep checking back here. I too will keep you informed of both storms progress.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 11:40 PM
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thank you for the warning, it is much appreciated.

i am not sure in what way i should be preparing, it is not often we get this type of thing so some research is in order on my part, thanks to you i am now aware to act.

there is no way i would of known if this was not on ats.



posted on Dec, 10 2011 @ 11:40 PM
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This thing is set to go right through Europe????


Check out the model for the 17th






posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 12:23 AM
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reply to post by markymint
 


I live across the pond from you and despite living in a brick house, we suffered a long drawn out power failure during an ice storm, when it was unsafe to go outside what with the sheer ice, falling power lines and trees everywhere. Without phone and power, we had no source of information whatsoever, the most anxiety-causing factor during our long siege. As soon as I could do so, I later purchased a windup radio, and I consider it to be among the top five things to have in a storm and post-storm situation. I would advise people to read some threads in the survival forum for practical ideas you can adapt to your situation.

Will be thinking and sending prayers and good thoughts to all of you.



posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 12:45 AM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 12:57 AM
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I will never understand why people on this site are so surprised by weather and seasons doing what they have done for millennia.
Can we just get to the "The Earth is going to freeze over!" Ice age theories as per every winter on this site then in the summer "The Earth is going to burn!" scorched planet theories in the summer.
I do enjoy my bi-annual reminder that winters cold and summers warm posts.
Without fail, here it is, bit of cold and everyone cries about it, I haven't even got my hat out the back of the cupboard its been that mild a winter so far.
I guess nobody remember the last 2 winters we had.



posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 01:55 AM
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Originally posted by Skippy1138
reply to post by jrmcleod
 


101 Flags?? You wouldn't last a week in New England....just sayin'.....


Im not pretending to be a weather man here, but....

Since when do new england snow storms have 120+ mph winds involved?


Ive lived in idaho and wyoming and we get some pretty darn bad winter storms,blizzards, white outs, ice and snow, but the wind doesnt barrel through like that, and i HIGHLY doubt it does in New England either



posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 02:34 AM
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OK we have two camps on this thread as follows:

Camp A - those that scoff and mock - what's the fuss about!
Camp B - those who wish to be kept informed and make informed choices

Can everyone please respect each others views even if you disagree with views different to your own.
Indeed I respectfully suggest that those in Camp A do not post on this thread.

To those in Camp B, I can offer the following

www.metoffice.gov.uk...
This is the official MMet Office surface pressure barometric pressure forecast. If you click on the "play button", you will see the met office predictions in animated format. As at time of typing this post, met office graphic shows very strong isobars at NOON on Tuesday 13th Dec 2011 - THIS IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO BE A REPEAT OF "BAWBAG".

Now to those in Camp A - you can choose to scoff and mock but I would rather prepare - better to prepare for a damp squib than not-prepare and face injury to human life.Consider that if Scotland had not gone into lockdown with Bawbag, how many school children would be out for lunch, how many double decked buses would have been overturned. I say it was forward planning that brought us through safe through through Bawbag.

Turning now to the Friday Storm met office does not post so far in advance but you can keep tracking the surface pressure link www.metoffice.gov.uk...
also the met office shipping storm warnings which at the time of typing is on red alert in mid atlantic.
www.metoffice.gov.uk...~All

You can also go to www.grib.us... and download a software program which will graphically track the predicted storm trajectory. basically this talks all the raw data and presents it in user friendly graphics. Th program needs a data set of raw data which you download via the software - data sets are updated every 3 hours or so as at which raw data predictions are updated. The data sets are the exact same raw data used by weathermen throughout the world.

If you doubt the accuracy of the software, compare the results against the met office surface pressure predictions
www.metoffice.gov.uk... - both are saying there is one helluva storm coming - but the exact trajectory is not known with certainty.

In closing I leave you with a picture North Sea at Ekofisk offshore oilrig during Bawbag - twitpic.com...



posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 03:22 AM
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As an indicator as to what is out in the Atlantic heading for you. I like to check the N. Atlantic trans-oceanic track charts issued by Jeppesen. The following is current for WB Flights.



Note that all the tracks have flights getting the hell out of the way, and flying so far north that it would add hours to a flights to the US (plus increased fuel burn time)

They wouldn't do this if there was nothing to get our of the way from.

The reverse is that with EB flights all tracks are riding a 190 kt Jet stream!. that will be like riding the log flume!!



posted on Dec, 11 2011 @ 03:24 AM
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reply to post by jrmcleod
 


Thank you for the new weather chart. Have you thought of compiling WRF on your own computer? Maybe (torrent) PGI Workstation as it has the necessary compilers. Looks like a lot of fuzz over the UK and Scandinavia, as it fizzles out going more and more East

Having my morning coffee now, browsing the different charts. The yesterday snow is all melting with 0 C and 741 mmHg on my home gauges. And to answer those questions about Moon rings and mackerel sky. I see the moon rings all the time before precipitation. Saw them day before yesterday, and we had a lot of snow yesterday. I do believe they are ice crystals up above forewarning a warm front, or a storm.

Considering the mackerel sky, well each stripe seems to show a wave in the upper atmosphere. Not a gravity wave you sillies, just a fast jet stream meeting slower air with different densities above and/or below it. It then begins to do funky waves. If enough humidity in the jet stream altitude then we get those kind of wavy clouds. And a jet stream near by is an easy paths for lows to follow. So bar down your windmills and prepare for a bumpy ride.




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