Advanced Warning of Double Major Storms For UK Next Week - In Depth Analysis (Be Prepared)

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reply to post by JessopJessopJessop


It will be windy I'm sure, but 5 or 6 day forecasts are barely reliable. I don't pay attention to forecasts over more than 2 days simply because it changes so frequently. They just aren't reliable.

Originally posted by RMFX1
reply to post by JessopJessopJessop

 

It will be windy I'm sure, but 5 or 6 day forecasts are barely reliable. I don't pay attention to forecasts over more than 2 days simply because it changes so frequently. They just aren't reliable.

Absolutely. That's why I've tried to go out of my way to stress the if's and buts in all my posts. I don't think anyone is saying absolutely this is what's going to happen, but more so that if the original projections are right, then x, y or z probably is going to be the result

Originally posted by RMFX1
reply to post by JessopJessopJessop

 

It will be windy I'm sure, but 5 or 6 day forecasts are barely reliable. I don't pay attention to forecasts over more than 2 days simply because it changes so frequently. They just aren't reliable.

In my experience they are fairly reliable as far as to what is going to happen,but when it's going to happen is still a guessing game based on guesses made by a couple of billion pounds worth of super computer.
For the record even though the south of England was supposed to escape the worst of the last storm,that afternoon I heard a gust of such severity the only thing I've ever heard to equal it was back in 1987.

Chris.

So i will ask again without getting a big offtopic warning lol who will get hit harder in the simulations? scotland or england?

Originally posted by Vaxar
So i will ask again without getting a big offtopic warning lol who will get hit harder in the simulations? scotland or england?

I think it's neither. Heard a few people suggest Northern Ireland would be hit hardest?

Originally posted by Imagewerx

Originally posted by RMFX1
reply to post by JessopJessopJessop

 

It will be windy I'm sure, but 5 or 6 day forecasts are barely reliable. I don't pay attention to forecasts over more than 2 days simply because it changes so frequently. They just aren't reliable.

In my experience they are fairly reliable as far as to what is going to happen,but when it's going to happen is still a guessing game based on guesses made by a couple of billion pounds worth of super computer.
For the record even though the south of England was supposed to escape the worst of the last storm,that afternoon I heard a gust of such severity the only thing I've ever heard to equal it was back in 1987.

Chris.

Well, I'm from the UK. Scotland to be precise although now I live just across the water in Holland and I do check the weather a lot. The 5 day forecast on the bbc website can change dramatically over the course of a day, as can the forecast on the various apps I use on my phone so how can it be trusted? I don\'t think it's all that accurate at all and the odd time it is close to what they predicted 5 days earlier you'll have to excuse for for thinking that it's a fluke.

Thanks to OP for the heads up on "possible intense" storm hitting the UK.
I've not posted before on ATS, just signed up. I have to say though that I'm rather frustrated at my fellow Scottish posters. Most seem to be missing the point here.I'll leave at that.

There is NO scaremongering in the original post, just facts as they stood at the time, time can also allow these storms to increase.

I run a haulage firm, so I have an interest in weather weeks ahead. This may or may not be the storm of the century, only time will tell.

Anyhoo, good luck to all should it end up being a worst case scenario.

Thanks again jrmcleod

reply to post by RumET


Thank you for the link you have provided. I'm right under that nasty red blob on Friday
Keep getting flashbacks from 1987 when we had the (hurricane) wind storm! I was 7yrs old then and it scared the life out of me, trying to walk back to our house with my mum was not nice!
We had to keep stopping and holding on to the lamp posts!

Originally posted by keepithush
I can't be bothered going through the rest of the pages to quote the others, learn to read.

No one example is not enough.

reply to post by boo1981


Well, I am sorry to hear you were frightened, but now you are all grown up and can gather knowledge about this weather type. And perhaps even teach your kids. And they say knowledge is the best way to fight back fear. So keep an eye on all of those model websites, since they are bound to change the nearest hours. Maybe they'll change for the better, and skip UK to pound down with hurricane-force winds on Moscow. As inconvenient as it would be it would be awesome at the same time. Stay safe and combat fear!

reply to post by JessopJessopJessop

Originally posted by JessopJessopJessop

Originally posted by Vaxar
So i will ask again without getting a big offtopic warning lol who will get hit harder in the simulations? scotland or england?

I think it's neither. Heard a few people suggest Northern Ireland would be hit hardest?

Huzzah!
Suppose I should get the plywood boards out for the windows and strap down the cat lol.
Its still too early to guess whats gonna happen, we've got an image of the worst and at the least it might be a bit breezy. All we can do really is wait it out and see what it brings

Originally posted by RMFX1

Well, I'm from the UK. Scotland to be precise although now I live just across the water in Holland and I do check the weather a lot. The 5 day forecast on the bbc website can change dramatically over the course of a day, as can the forecast on the various apps I use on my phone so how can it be trusted? I don\'t think it's all that accurate at all and the odd time it is close to what they predicted 5 days earlier you'll have to excuse for for thinking that it's a fluke.

In my experience general trends are still reasonably accurate,even if the exact details aren't.By this I mean discrepancies between the written forecast and the fancy five-day-into-the-future animated map.

Something of this severity is of course VERY rare in this part of Europe.I would imagine that anything with this much power would have enough influence to push anything else out of it's way,something that makes more normal and less powerful weather systems a lot less predictable.

Chris.

reply to post by shauny


Hey you don't have to tell me about the resilience of the scottish people, my mother is scottish and shes the hardest women (infact hardest anyone) I've every known. But to deny that last week storm wasn't severe is just plain silly. Anyway back to the topic at hand.

Here a snipet of the 6 to 15 day forecast from the MetO

Starting very unsettled and stormy with a risk of exceptionally strong winds and potentially damaging gusts. This will be coupled with bands of heavy rain, with hill snow in the north, followed by squally showers.

www.metoffice.gov.uk...

Theres also a really informative wind chart on the site.

the predictions from grib and MB indicate that southern ireland , south west england and the english channel will be hardest hit on thursday night around 22:00 when the storm reaches land 100kmh westerly