As some of you will know, i recently composed a thread
here regarding the storm that
struck the UK earlier this week. With 165mph gusts at height and 114mph at lower levels and over £150 million worth of damage, the thought of a
second storm in as many days, let alone a third is frightening. However, that is indeed the case, and this time not one part of the UK will escape.
Let me explain.
On Tuesday, a severe extratropical cyclone will hit Scotland and the North of England. This storm will be comparative to the one experienced this
week and will bring further havoc to an already battered country. With the lead up to Christmas, its the last thing anyone wants. Its a time to be
prepared, none of us want our Christmas ruined by damaged homes, lives and possessions.
The story doesnt end there though. Once this storm passes through after about 24hours, a second even stronger storm will hit the south of England on
Friday 16th December. This storm will affect the most densly populated area of Europe and could pose a significant risk to life through wind and
flooding, This second storm will be the equivenlent to a
CATAGORY 3 hurricane.
This second storm will have a probable central pressure of arounf 945mb, this is exceptionally deep and only around 15mb off of the UK record set in
1884.
Do not ignore this as a simple windy winters day, or a usual storm, because it most certainly isn't. This second storm
will go down in
history, and the damage total will be far higher than the £150 million in Scotland this week.
Ok so without further ado, let me provide some more detail on the nitty gritty. (Please bear in mind that i will be updating this thread as the
weekend and week progress).
Tuesday 13th December
This image shows you the model prediction for the storm on Tuesday 13th December. As you can see, the most visible pressure is 955mb, however, inside
that are other lines, so the pressure will be nearer the 950mb mark. Slightly more powerful than the storm experience this week. It will roughly
follow the same line as this weeks storms and the affected areas will largely be the same.
As you can see in this image, we are looking at areas achieving sustained winds greater than 50knts. This isn't gusts of wind, this is sustained. 50
knots is equal to around 60mph sustained. The chart above only goes upto 50knts so its difficult to tell with this chart.
This chart shows you the energy of the storm system in terms of cape and the respective pressures. This is the energy required to produce
thunderstorms. As you can see there is potential for thunderstorms, which also bring an added danger of sporadic tornados, as witnessed in Scotland
this week.
This chart is showing you the sporadic gust speeds in knots. As you can see, the west looks like they will have gusts exceeding 90knots which is over
100mph. Again, very similar to this weeks storm.
This image is showing the volume of precipitaion in any 3 hour time span during the storm, so not only do we have winds to contend with, we also have
a lot of rain/sleet/snow which could lead to flooding as the ground is already saturated.
At present the only MetO warning that is in place is for the SW of England on Monday. Please monitor their site for updates that will occur over the
coming days, and dont be surprised is there are Red Alerts issued.
Friday 16th December
Details for this storm at present are harder to predict but what i will say is that if this storm pulls off, and it looks like it will, this will be a
storm that will be remembered for many years. This storm, if it verifies, will be the equivelant to a
Category 3 Hurricane. This storm will
most likely track through the English Channel and will affect not only most of the UK, but also Holland and the other low countries in Europe. the
winds associated with this storm could be in excess of 130mph. This is sustained gusts over a 1 minute period. This will pull down trees, rip off
roofs, windows in high rise flats blown in, fences taken down, power cuts lasting up to a week, most caravans destroyed if in the dirct wind. To give
you an idea, Hurricane
Ivan was a category 3 Hurricane.
This
LINK will provide some further detail on what damage can be expected if this storm on the
16th verifys.
Storm on Friday 16th December with exceptionally low central pressure.
Please don't underestimate the power of these 2 up and coming storms. This is NOT fear mongering, this is a delivery of information to allow you to
prepare your homes and families for storms that will take place this week.
I will be providing further updates on these storms over the weekend and next week as they approach. As time passes by, we can get a clearer view of
whats in store with finer details.
Please remember that this information is subject to change, as the areas to be worst affected may change over the next 3 days. Any changes projected
will be detailed by myself throughout the thread so please follow if you wish to know more information.
edit on 10/12/11 by jrmcleod because:
(no reason given)
edit on 10/12/11 by jrmcleod because: (no reason given)
)
