Regardless, all of this is of course based on an assumption that Newt is electable, while Paul simply does not have the staying power. I am, for the
most part, am fairly comfortable with this assessment – or, I was, until I looked at two more polls from both early primary state – New Hampshire
and Iowa. A large number of registered voters, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, were polled about how they would vote for the President
given a toss up between the current GOP candidates and Obama. Low and behold, the only republican candidate to contend with Obama is Paul. They stand
at a dead heat at 42% a piece. Gingrich stands a cool ten percentage points behind Obama, 47% to 37% - and this when Obama can barely be sure of a two
percentage point lead nationally against a generic
Granted, that is a national poll and I am comparing it to state ones, but still. The point remains. It seems like the biggest threat to Paul’s
campaign is not his message, or his values, or even the way he conveys it – although I have issues with all of them. No, the biggest threat to
Paul’s campaign is the belief in the Republican party that he simply isn’t electable, and here is the kicker, even though there is some
significant evident to contradict that.
’s ability to draw even with Obama can’t be accounted for because of vigorously staunch Republican
support, and more than it can be accounted for by somehow luring Democrats away from Obama – although there is some slight evidence that this is the
case. No, Paul’s true impact can be seen in his appeal the Independent Iowan’s (is that the write way to say it? Sorry, Canadian). Forty two
percent of polled independents supported Paul, while 35 percent backed Obama. When running against Gingrich, Obama remains fairly close at 39% of
garners thirty five percent – also, for the record, Newt got 8 percent of registered Democrats,
while Paul had 15 percent. This is BIG news for the Paul campaign, and his electability, especially given the fact that there is a general distaste
from both Political parties, Independent’s might just be the turning power – they usually are.
However, perhaps the strangest aspect of all of this – given Paul’s age – is the demographic breakdown of those polled. Forty nine percent of
those polled under the age of 45 support Paul, while only thirty five percent support Obama. (Against Gingrich, these trends are reversed: Obama has
44% of individuals, while Gingrich gets thirty nine percent). Given the role that the youth vote played in Obama’s election in 2008, the fact that
Paul can somehow motivate this age group against Obama has major implications for his campaign. When the numbers are broken down even farther, Paul
actually has a majority of fifty one percent against Obama’s 37 percent between the 18 – 29 age group, roughly the age group which Obama quite
clearly owned by more than two-to-one margin against McCain . Early reports are inconclusive as to whether or not Paul is the most sexually appealing
geriatric in America. What this all seems to suggest is that Paul is not only electable – when an electorate really gets exposed to him – he may
actually be the biggest threat to Obama, given his ability to motivate the young AND independents.
Granted, the demographic breakdown in Iowa and NH are massively out of wake with those of America as a whole. Still, it gives the campaign some hope,
and I think an important lesson. That if Paul actually wants to make a concerted campaign, then what he needs is more than simply a consistent
articulation of his policies – something he has done quite well - what he needs is somehow demonstrate the Republican establishment that he can win.
Without that, he simply won’t get the support because That, seems as though it is the most important element. Not policy. Not values. But the
appearance of a winner, and this may be where Paul is entirely hamstrung. While he has been elected consistently to congress, he also has two failed
presidential campaigns under his belt. We all know that America does not and cannot love a loser. Because really, when all is said and done, that is
what’s important, isn’t it?
Thanks all. First post. Hope it was informative.
edit on 6-12-2011 by allouttabubblegum because: (no reason given)