NEWS: Hurricane Ivan, Not again! UPDATE: He's Back, T.S. Style!

My prediction is that once the hurricane pass Cuba is going to push toward the panhandle of florida.

I agree, Mexico/Texas should actually be more concerned about Ivan than Florida. As a resident of Curacao, I'd like to know how/why the island got spared .... (not that I'm complaining) ...

Itc,

That's because around us (Aruba, Bonaire & Curacao) the water temperature is slightly cooler than to the north of us. You can see that in the water temperature maps on weather.com or wunderground.com.

Nos a scapa, pero pami e ta logico.

But what I don't understand is why there's no Hurricane warning or at least a hurricane watch for the Yucatan peninsula. Ivan is very close to the Yucatan, and still going west!!!

Yes Ivan is due west and closer to the Yucatan peninsula but between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba is a stretch once the hurricane passes that stretch is going to veer to the east.

This was taken, as the time stamp says, on 9/14/04 of Hurricane Gilbert

88 you mean, 88

Originally posted by MacKiller
88 you mean, 88

Yeah...totally slipped my mind...thanks

Originally posted by TheBandit795
Itc,

That's because around us (Aruba, Bonaire & Curacao) the water temperature is slightly cooler than to the north of us. You can see that in the water temperature maps on weather.com or wunderground.com.

Nos a scapa, pero pami e ta logico.

But what I don't understand is why there's no Hurricane warning or at least a hurricane watch for the Yucatan peninsula. Ivan is very close to the Yucatan, and still going west!!!

I understand how/why the eye missed us, but what I don't understand is how the "tropical storm" missed us as well. No real winds, minimal rainfall, etc when we were 90 mi. from the eye ....

I agree with you on the Yucatan peninsula, but then the forcasters have been claiming Ivan would turn north all along, and instead it's headed W to WNW at the most. To me, if a storm is heading west and has been for several hours/days then you owe it to whatever lies west to warn them, even if you believe it will head north. Warn in both directions and admit you don't know rather than "predict" false information. It could save lives. I don't know about Aruba, but Curacao was nowhere near ready should Ivan have actually touched us.

Originally posted by Itc,

I agree with you on the Yucatan peninsula, but then the forcasters have been claiming Ivan would turn north all along, and instead it's headed W to WNW at the most. To me, if a storm is heading west and has been for several hours/days then you owe it to whatever lies west to warn them,

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

I think the Yucatan has been under a warning since early this morning if not sooner. Looking at the track I'd hazard a guess that they are going to get swiped by the hurricane as it slides by into the gulf.

It seems that Yucatan peninsula will not receive the front of the storm but rather the outer bands of winds and rain the hurracan will affect the tip of cuba and the eye may be over that area as well showing the intentiosn of the hurracan on the move to the gulf and from there to the pensacola area.

Right now the are here is rainy and nasty and its not even from the huracan.

I am thinking this storm is the same that hit Texas in 1900. I think this storm is going to head northwest.

Originally posted by itcI understand how/why the eye missed us, but what I don't understand is how the "tropical storm" missed us as well. No real winds, minimal rainfall, etc when we were 90 mi. from the eye ....

I agree with you on the Yucatan peninsula, but then the forcasters have been claiming Ivan would turn north all along, and instead it's headed W to WNW at the most.

Warn in both directions and admit you don't know rather than "predict" false information. It could save lives. I don't know about Aruba, but Curacao was nowhere near ready should Ivan have actually touched us.

I agree with this as well. These storms are still too unpredictable. At least they have a hurricane warning for the Yucatan.

And as for the abc islands.... I'm still amazed that while Curacao and Bonaire didn't get much rain, Aruba got probably the most rain in a 24 period in recent history. We got 196mm of rain and it flooded in much of Oranjestad and other parts of the island. San Nicolas (where I live) didn't get much flooding though...

And as for being ready... Aruba was even worse than Curacao and Bonaire. The government was extremely noncahalant. In fact, the prime minister was in Bonaire meddling with their internal affairs last wednesday, while everyone on Aruba was preparing for the hurricane.

It seems we have a new tropical depression in the Caribbean.

Originally posted by SpittinCobra
I am thinking this storm is the same that hit Texas in 1900. I think this storm is going to head northwest.

Uh... no. Storms don't reincarnate.

The land shape is different these days and the water quality and temperature are different as are the surface temperatures. It's just a hurricane; not a reincarnation of some storm.

Here's the latest track. Still a CAT5 with extreme uncertainty as to course as he enters the Gulf.

[edit on 10/2/2004 by esther]

It sure is taking its time, wherever it's going...

If it hits anywhere near Panama City Beach then things are not going to be pretty here in Tallahassee...I've already made plans to go up and visit some relatives in South Carolina just in case...

Any ham radio buffs here? You can listen to the NHC amateur radio weather net on 14325.0 kc. The usuals from Jamaica and the Caymans are absent currently.

I wonder if Valhall ever bought her ham radio yet?

Originally posted by esther

This is absolutely not going west.


.

I am with you this hurracan is going to brush tampa and is going to follow the same path of Frances, the cities in southern GA are started to prepare since yesterday, people are buying water more than anything else.

south florida got lucky again or prayer really works, either way i've noticed that no one is in a hurry to take down their shutters yet, most of those I spoke to say, they want be sure Ivan doesn't change course and won't feel safe till it's past our latitude.

It's fascinating watching these storms, it's so wierd how the storm sometimes has two eyes, fluctuates and seem to even be able to skirt an entire land mass whenever it wishes, picking and choosing where it will unleash it's destruction. New Orleans or Mobile, but seems Cantore is in Panama City so that's probably where the worst will happen.

[edit on 9-13-2004 by worldwatcher]

Sure,

Everyone in the path of the hurricane should be stocking up on bottled water, batteries, canned food etc.