A Dire Prediction From the Economist Magazine

The Economist lays out What would happen if just one country drops from the Euro Zone. Now imagine five or six countrys.

The prospect that one country might break its ties to the euro, voluntarily or not, would cause widespread bank runs in other weak economies. Depositors would rush to get their savings out of the country to pre-empt a forced conversion to a new, weaker currency. Governments would have to impose limits on bank withdrawals or close banks temporarily. Capital controls and even travel restrictions would be needed to stanch the bleeding of money from the economy. Such restrictions would slow the circulation of money around the economy, deepening the recession.

Italy has €33 billion of debt coming due in the final week of January and a further €48 billion in the last week of February.Since bond investors are turning their noses up even at offerings from thrifty Germany, the odds against Italy’s being able to raise the money it needs early next year are uncomfortably short.

Very Scary, We finally might have a timeline on when the “S” will hit the fan. If Italy cant cover there bond auction in those months, look for a Euro collapse. Coincidentally February and March are the month I’ve been warning people in my small groups to be ready by. February and March tend to be the worst part of the year for the economy as a whole.

Hope im wrong.

Originally posted by camaro68ss
The Economist lays out What would happen if just one country drops from the Euro Zone. Now imagine five or six countrys.

The prospect that one country might break its ties to the euro, voluntarily or not, would cause widespread bank runs in other weak economies. Depositors would rush to get their savings out of the country to pre-empt a forced conversion to a new, weaker currency. Governments would have to impose limits on bank withdrawals or close banks temporarily. Capital controls and even travel restrictions would be needed to stanch the bleeding of money from the economy. Such restrictions would slow the circulation of money around the economy, deepening the recession.

Italy has €33 billion of debt coming due in the final week of January and a further €48 billion in the last week of February.Since bond investors are turning their noses up even at offerings from thrifty Germany, the odds against Italy’s being able to raise the money it needs early next year are uncomfortably short.

Very Scary, We finally might have a timeline on when the “S” will hit the fan. If Italy cant cover there bond auction in those months, look for a Euro collapse. Coincidentally February and March are the month I’ve been warning people in my small groups to be ready by. February and March tend to be the worst part of the year for the economy as a whole.

Hope im wrong.

edit on 29-11-2011 by camaro68ss because: (no reason given)

..ides of march say you. Interesting. weather will be breaking.Armies all ready for war. Look at History...here we go. After a long winter the OWS's will be rearmed and ready to riot. just before elections and "the messiah" whomever it will be will step forth to save the masses in November........prior to that it may be real bad. just a thought. Perfect storm

I hope it is wrong.. however it seems things are hotting up with even the surveys from the Bank of England saying that there is a very high/high risk of a high impacting event happening in the short term and the risks of it happening in the medium term are even higher..

Following on from that risk survey Merv King of the Bank went on to say that Britain must Have contingency plans to deal with the emerging Euro Risks.

“What we have to do is to be ready and prepared with contingency plans and to make sure that as far as possible our banking system is as robust as possible to withstand whatever shocks that come from the eurozone,” King told lawmakers at a Parliament committee in London yesterday.
www.businessweek.com...

It seems the next credit crunch is already showing it's face.

There are “early signs” of a credit crunch emerging in euro area in the difficulties banks have in accessing funding, he said.

I did find this bit of honesty almost refreshing from a central banker if it wasn't so worrisome.

“There are many things that could happen if developments in the eurozone get worse, but I honestly don’t think it makes much sense to pretend we can precisely know how this will play out,” he said.

I'm no economist or expert on the EU, but I was under the impression that there is no clause or law that allows any of those "countries" to leave the EU. Is this correct?

Governments would have to impose limits on bank withdrawals or close banks temporarily.

That's hard to even imagine. Money transactions would have to be able to stop.
Most of Canada does internet banking, and many of us never even see more than a paycheque stub, so much is direct deposit. And auto withdrawal for bills, mortgages, insurances, etc.

Many people don't even use very much physical cash anymore, only for small things, it's all on the debit card

To actually stop all transactions, would be a nightmare, unless they only mean for physical cash...

Interesting times, indeed.

reply to post by METACOMET


As far as I am aware that is correct... and that creates it's own issues as any nation leaving the Euro would have to do so in a disorderly fashion upsetting the markets further.

Originally posted by snowspirit

Governments would have to impose limits on bank withdrawals or close banks temporarily.

That's hard to even imagine. Money transactions would have to be able to stop.
Most of Canada does internet banking, and many of us never even see more than a paycheque stub, so much is direct deposit. And auto withdrawal for bills, mortgages, insurances, etc.

Many people don't even use very much physical cash anymore, only for small things, it's all on the debit card

To actually stop all transactions, would be a nightmare, unless they only mean for physical cash...

Interesting times, indeed.

Its a hellish prediction but its one that has happend in the past. We need to look to history to see whats hard times are ahead for us

I am calling the Euro, is going to crash.. Or put on life support at the start of 2012, maybe as early as December, but I think these idiots, will push it off, til the end of the holidays...

But ya, the Euro, is going to be worthless, very, very very soon.. We are going to be seeing more protesting and anarchy in Europe next year as well, in either case... Hell look at Greece.. That mess is not gonna get cleaned up any time soon..

I usually try to avoid the chicken little threads, you know the World war 99 is about to start type threads, but this one.. This collapse of the Euro, I think is going to happen.. This story about the Euro, is just not going away, and they cannot figure out how to make it work or fix it, in addition you have countries in the EU, that do not get along in the first place, Hell man, Europe has been at war all its existance

ya that is a good recipe, tell the Germans, they need to bail out the French to keep the Euro alive, etc. etc.

Just an example.. Its just not a good formula..



I am calling it thou, The Euro is either going to turn into toilet paper as early as next year, or put on life support.. In either case, it will be devastating to the World Economy, it will be felt as far east as Japan, and as close as our refrigerators here in the states...

Lets just hope nothing starts in the Middle East, to raise Gas prices as well.. Ah 2012, is looking good...

Might wanna start thinking outside the box a little as soon as right now folks...

reply to post by camaro68ss
In my febrile little mind, here's what I see happening.

Obama is going to give the IMF 1 trillion dollars.

This will;
a) Boost the euro
b) Devalue the dollar
so that
c) the US gets invited to the eurozone.

So we lose soveregnty, europe gains in strength, and it's a win-win for the global "1 rule" crowd.

(what the hell, this IS a conspiracy site, right?)

Originally posted by beezzer
reply to post by camaro68ss

 

In my febrile little mind, here's what I see happening.

Obama is going to give the IMF 1 trillion dollars.

This will;
a) Boost the euro
b) Devalue the dollar
so that
c) the US gets invited to the eurozone.

So we loose soveregnty, europe gains in strength, and it's a win-win for the global "1 rule" crowd.

(what the hell, this IS a conspiracy site, right?)

ya it will be something outrageous like that...



Sucks when the truth about this story is Doom and gloom...

Originally posted by beezzer
reply to post by camaro68ss

 

In my febrile little mind, here's what I see happening.

Obama is going to give the IMF 1 trillion dollars.

This will;
a) Boost the euro
b) Devalue the dollar
so that
c) the US gets invited to the eurozone.

So we lose soveregnty, europe gains in strength, and it's a win-win for the global "1 rule" crowd.

(what the hell, this IS a conspiracy site, right?)

edit on 29-11-2011 by beezzer because: (no reason given)

I think your right but it will be a new currancy, euro, world, eurold. lol

but really, i think a global currancy will come about all this.

reply to post by camaro68ss


Yeah it just might, now that you think of it..


Bicent76, puts on his conspiracy thinking cap and grabs his pipe to think....

Whichever solutions to be made, Europeans will most certainly feel the pain.

But in the end, it boils down to a distinct and stark choice - feel the pain this generation, and work towards creative ways for relief, or live in delusions, bailout the banks, and then pass on the pain to the innocent next generations that may not know enough of the facts to deal with it, which is far, far worse and plain homocidal?

May conscience be europeans' guide, even those corrupt leaders whom had led their nations to doom today.

Originally posted by METACOMET
I'm no economist or expert on the EU, but I was under the impression that there is no clause or law that allows any of those "countries" to leave the EU. Is this correct?

This is correct. There is no provision within the EU Constitution that allows countries to leave -- willingly or forcefully. The premise as of now is that "no one will stop a nation from leaving the EU" however France has hinted many times that the EU will stay as it is, at all costs. Germany is more inclined to create a new Union if things get bad enough. Sadly it's the smaller states that are the ones that need to break away to survive. Not having the ability to control their own currencies is severely hampering their livelihoods.

But no .. there is nothing in the EU Treaties or Constitution that allows for members to leave.

Well, it looks like they are going to try to push the collapse until next year!!


It seems the USA, just set ourselves up for failure... I am wondering how much we just sent over to Europe.. Just Crushed!!!! The dollar....




Americans, get ready for INFLATION!!!

2 bucs a loaf of bread is bad enough, lets spend 5 bucs!!!!


Just bailed out the EU!!

Originally posted by Bicent76
Well, it looks like they are going to try to push the collapse until next year!!

It seems the USA, just set ourselves up for failure... I am wondering how much we just sent over to Europe.. Just Crushed!!!! The dollar....

Americans, get ready for INFLATION!!!

2 bucs a loaf of bread is bad enough, lets spend 5 bucs!!!!


Just bailed out the EU!!

edit on 30-11-2011 by Bicent76 because: (no reason given)

The FED just showed us there cards. What i see is the FEDs will not let any bank go under and will keep on injecting cash into the markets. And once the Dam brakes, its going to get ugly fast.

This move has done nothing in fixing the problem. All it did was buy time to find solutions to the problem that cant be solved.