posted on Nov, 25 2011 @ 12:37 PM
Originally posted by pavil
Originally posted by jude11
In the back room, they might be thinking that it isn't worth it but as National pride, Russia knows that it is being viewed by the entire World right
now and if there is no way to back out with their pride intact...?
They will only back down so many times and that point is getting very close IMO.
I agree. You have to give the Russians a way to save face in this situation. It is stupid of them to back a dictator like Assad in face of how the
Arab Spring has played out, but that is a moot point. You have to give them a way to back down and out without looking like they did either.
Perhaps getting them involved with the Arab League initiatives would be a way for them to save face. Russia could be the facilitator, perhaps the
only one, who can get Assad to step down and avoid major bloodshed. Without Russia's support, Assad is checking out which country will offer him the
best exile deal.
Sometimes real diplomacy is letting someone else play hero to get your end objective done. Putin doesn't seem too much the diplomat though, but
neither was Khrushchev.
You've struck upon a salient point. Ultimately ALL the Russians care about are their ability to roam the Med at will from their port at Tartus and
looking like they are still players. Of course they are
still players - anybody with thousands of ICBMs is a player - but world perception of
their power is key as well. They took a significant hit to their national pride when the Soviet Union collapsed, and Putin has never taken that very
well. It's taken them some time to recover, but Putin - the man behind Medvedev, and most likely the next President (again) - has it in his mind that
he is going to restore some of the prestige lost.
If they can strike a deal with the opposition that allows their continued use of the ports in Syria, maybe with a prominent mediation role as a bonus,
they will let Assad go by the wayside just as they did Gadaffi.
edit on 11/25/2011 by OldCorp because: removed extra bracket