Everyone want in on a little secret? Nobody is going to attack Syria. The situation in Syria is far from what the one that took place in Libya.
Syrian rebels hold little to no territory, the army has not started to defect en masse, Syrian military is far more experienced that Libya's, Syria
has four times the population of Libya, and most of Syrian territory is calm for now. Even without the supposed shipment of new weapons from Russia,
launching an airstrike on Syria is far from an easy and risk-free task. Syrian anti-air defenses are well developed, and have always been operated
with the guidance and help of Russian military experts.
US and Europe certainly enjoy pounding their chest right now that they were "successful" in Libya, and are on a bit of a gloating spree. Look out
everyone, the great defenders of civil rights, freedom, and democracy are here to save the day! Or not. In end US and NATO only care about their
wallets, their PR, and safety - they will never risk loosing a substantial number of air assets and embarrassing themselves in an attack Syria. It is
the same with US attacking Iraq and threatening Iran. A war with Iran will be far different from likes of Iraq, and any attacker will bleed hard
before achieving anything of value. Any potential conflict involves weighting of the costs and benefits against each other - and democratic ideals
and goodwill towards the people are not factors of this formula, they are PR plugs.
So what is going to be the result of this chest beating by the West? Sanctions will be imposed, Syria will be called a bad boy and made to sit in the
back row during international symposiums. To save face after all of the warmongering, US and NATO will say "oh look over there its a bird", and
everyone will forget Syria and focus on a new topic of interest, which will no doubt involve terrorists, very mean looking villains, and ample
referrences to democracy.
Russia may very well be supplying some arms to Syria, but not necessarily because it senses a credible threat. It is willing to capitalize off of the
circumstances, and sell some hardware to Syria. It also wants to show other allies and potential allies that it has their back, and will not back
down quickly. And finally, assuming that Assad stays (and my bet is that he will), Russia can get increased cooperation with Syria as far as
development of its Mediterranean naval bases go.
In case there was ever a real conflict involving Syria, Russia would not take part. But it wouldn't mind an opportunity for Syrians to test out some
of Russia's hardware on the opposing side. Ultimately Syria is not a true ally of Russia. It is a useful client and a partner with some benefits.
Certainly Russia is strongly opposed to any attack on Syria, but other than supplying modern armament it know that it is not its place to make a stand
- but of course that is not what they will say in the international arena.
edit on 26-11-2011 by maloy because: (no reason given)