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No Sign Yet of Predicted Big California Earthquake (from ATSNN)

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posted on Sep, 4 2004 @ 06:23 AM
A UCLS team has prediceted that a major earthquake magnatude 6.4 or greater will occur east of Los Angales by September 5th. It is given a 50/50 chance of occuring. Predicted back in january, the UCLA team has also predicted two other quakes in California and Japan.
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The clock is running out on a highly publicized prediction that a major earthquake will rip through Southern California by Sunday.

But even if the earth does not move by the weekend, seismologists largely agree that the forecast had done more good than harm by reviving interest in the controversial science of quake prediction.

A UCLA team startled Californians and the wider scientific world in January by predicting there was 50-50 chance of a 6.4 magnitude or larger quake hitting a 12,000 square mile mostly desert area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5.

They used an algorithm, or mathematical pattern recognition formula, developed by team member Professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok which had already successfully forecast a 6.5 temblor in central California in December 2003 and the 8.1 magnitude quake that struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido in September last year.

The public forecast of a quake in southern California shook up the world of seismology where reliable earthquake prediction was largely discredited after the 1980s when another big prediction embarrassingly fell flat.

But a panel of earthquake experts deemed the prediction valid although too untested to warrant emergency measures in a state which measures up to 60 earthquakes a day -- few of them even rattling a window.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

If they can show they can make consistent forecasts, it will be great for preparation. One can stock up on essentials, gas up the car etc. Living in the SF Bay Area we are right on the San Andreas and Hayward faults and earthquakes are an ever present threat.

posted on Sep, 4 2004 @ 07:24 AM
IF, and i mean IF a major quake was to occur on the San Andreas fault, would these
power plants be 'safe and secure'? I hope so.


posted on Sep, 4 2004 @ 07:58 AM
They should and the containment domes are pretty tough. However, one can never know. i was here for Loma Prietta and no one expected part of the bay Bridge to go down. That one was a 6.9. A 9.0 would be 210 times greater. Do know what would be left standing at that point....

Date: October 17, 1989 at 05:04 PM local time)
Location: 37.040 -121.877
Depth: 16.79 km
Magnitude: 6.9 Mw, 7.1 Ms, 6.7 Ml
Faulting:This earthquake was the first major event to occur along the San Andreas fault zone since the 1906 earthquake. The Loma Prieta earthquake ruptured the southernmost 40 km of the 1906 break, in comparable amounts of right-lateral strike slip and reverse slip motion. The average strike-slip displacement was 1.2 meters while the average reverse-slip displacement was 1.6 meters. This type of motion is not typical of the San Andreas fault and suggests that the earthquake occurred on a sub-parallel fault and not on the San Andreas itself. Consequently, the potential for a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas in the Santa Cruz mountains may still exist.
Deaths: 63
Injuries: 3,757
Property Damage: $ 5,900,000,000. At the time, this was the most costly natural disaster in the United States.

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