Alien Life? Drake equation would seem to say yes... Do you?

Drake Equation

I've been fascinated with the Drake Equation, and what it could imply, since I first learned of it.

The link above allows you, yes you, to determine just how correct your assumption of alien life might be... But you have to take the reality of what astronomers know in order to get a number that might be realistic.

Since my "expertise" is strictly limited to "oooh" and "aaaah", and saying "That's really cool!" a lot, my numbers may not be a reflection of the reality....

But given the size of the galaxy, much less the Universe, assuming that life doesn't exist elsewhere would seem counter-intuitive.

Playing around with the interactive equation on the site, I came to the conclusion, completely without basis, that there are almost certainly several civilizations out there.

My number was 51.

My major assumption was that an intelligent race/civilization can not help but develop advanced communication technology. I assumed 75% of civilizations will do so as an absolute minimum.

There are, of course, many factors that will reduce the number of civilizations as advanced as ours.

I tried to be as conservative as I could in my thinking, and still came up with fifty-one.in our galaxy alone. What that might mean for the Universe, as a whole, beggars the imagination...

Have fun with it. I did.

Let's discuss what you came up with, and more importantly, the why of it.

Put those thinkin' caps on, folks.

I have always thought that the odds nearly guarantee life exists elsewhere in the universe and even our own galaxy. To think otherwise seems to be completely ignoring the numbers.

Is there life of equal or greater intelligence than ours? Very likely.

Is there any actual, undeniable proof we have been visited by any of these other intelligent life forms?
Absolutely not.

I think the chances of a race of aliens similar in tech to us would be faced with the same issues of "why are we here" and thus arguments or wars between beliefs etc.

So of drakes equasion i think that even if 90% of the alien races imploded due to their own greed or beliefs, that still leaves a MASSIVE number of actual civilizations.

My problem with the drake equasion is the technology of space travel, even if all the odds were worked out and there was a race close to us WITH the tech to get here, even that number is then massivly reduced once again with the timing issue of actually existing at the right times to actually meet.

The drake equasion only tells us the one true fact that there are alien being somewhere, NOT that we would meet any of them ever.

reply to post by Biigs


What makes you think that a civilization of at least equivalent technology levels would necessarily face the same issues of self destruction? Not that I don't agree with you, but what thinking leads you to that assumption?

A species that survives to develop to this point is probably a predator species, so you're probably right. But might not a herbivore herd species not survive to this point, as well? They would have an entirely different racial psychology, and/or outlook.

Whether you take it from a Christian standpoint, or a scientific standpoint, I believe it's pretty safe to say that there is life elsewhere.

Science: Drake equation. It wouldn't surprise me if it's way off, and there is more life than originally thought.

Christian: Revelations 12:12 "Therefore rejoice, ye heavens, and ye that dwell in them. Woe to the inhabiters of the earth and of the sea! for the devil is come down unto you, having great wrath, because he knoweth that he hath but a short time." Heavens? Plural? This is just one example. Ezekiel is another. Talk of aliens (oops, angels) is everywhere in the Bible.

reply to post by seagull


I thought it was worth mentioning because to get to such an end goal you must ignore basic instincs to reach a bigger goal.

People always think of aliens with huge claws like giant ants, but really think what would ants do if there was no competition, you just end up with one hell of alot of ants nests untill they need to compete for resources. War is inevitable on a planet scale at some piont.

Now we are all just throwing estemations and numbers out there, so i threw an "even if 90% destroyed themselves" more just to piont out that odds wise, theres still millions of alien civilizations left.

reply to post by seagull


The bad news: you can make the numbers come out any way you want, depending on what you assume. Good news: we are starting to get reasonable estimates for some of the terms. That will start to constrain the answers we get. The really bad news: if we never find another civilization, that may mean that L - the average life of a technological civilization - may be quite small, and we are in a very precarious position ourselves.

Keep in mind that the purpose of the Drake equation is not estimate the number of planets with intelligent life in the galaxy, but the number of technological civilizations we might be able to communicate with.

There most probably are advanced alien civilizations, and a lot of them. Much more then 50+,i go for thousands of them. But when you take into account the size of the universe thingy, chance of encountering one another is pretty low even for star faring civilization, not to mention the ones that are still stuck on home planet.

remember that the universe exploded and all matter was energy, as it expands into whatever and cools it clumps up to form matter - we all read this at some piont.

But think of the big bang as a bubble of time expanding, the elements being created in random matter generators of stars for billions of years. There are only so many basic elements needed for making life, the more available elements and chances to mix there are the greater the chance of life.

I propose that until a specific piont in the universes history there could have been no chance of life at all, only when everything has enough room to move, with the elements nessery being created and spread out can the random life generator take its grasp.

Now think of that time bubble once again, it is very smiliar to the earth, we live on the surface because we cant in the crust, in the same way the time bubble of expanding matter couldnt create life with so little to use before its time existing.

Thinking like that you are now talking about moving across or around or through a bubble of chance (like the surface of a balloon), where life is most likly to be able to come into being. Life on the other side is unreachable, and the closest to us on an almost flat (like looking at the horizon) plane of chance.

Ultimatly what im saying form all this is that the civilizations that exist may be many but only accessable via shortest direct path in certain directions, not nessesserly everywhere.

Sorry im not very good at explaining what i think and if this is too confusing or doesnt make sense, tell me so i can remove it

reply to post by disownedsky


I understand that. The equation allows you to make certain assumptions that may, or indeed, may not be accurate. That's why, if at all possible, be as knowledgeable as possible. Or, when in doubt, go for the gusto .

Communicating civilizations. Which, admittedly, we're still in our infancy. Radio telescopes capable of detecting the transmissions of another civilization are still relatively new.

It's a fascinating subject.

reply to post by Biigs


I actually followed that fairly easily.

...and you may have a point.

I just saw this and thought it was fitting for this thread:

Alien Life May Live in Various Habitable Zones

reply to post by seagull


Well, actually the Drake equation was answered about a decade before it was asked:

en.wikipedia.org...

Basically - if you assume the probability of an abundance of alien life in the universe, why are there no aliens nor alien artifacts here?

On a more personal level, I think that even assuming that there is an extremely tiny percentage of habitable planets out there - the odds are still in favor of life out there somewhere. I just don't believe that life has ever been to Earth and most likely isn't even aware of our existance.

reply to post by tallcool1


since we have trouble finding landing sites on the moon with optics id say if theres alien artifacts they too must be pretty tricky to find since they must be so far away.

The Drake Equation is like a Rorschach Test. You see what you want to in it.

When I plug in numbers for the variables, I generally get zero for an answer. The "ƒc" and "ƒt" variables in particular are particularly hard to figure. We have no idea how life started on Earth. None. The Second Law of Thermodynamics makes it so nearly impossible as to the point where it can basically be seen as a wild fluke that we exist. So "ƒt" stands at zero.

Then, realistically looking at "ƒc" also gives me zero. We have not detected a verifiable signal. Yeah, you can hypothesize that we just haven't found a signal yet, or that they're using some other form of communication we don't understand. But the whole point of the equation is to try and figure out how many ET civilizations there are out there like ours. Maybe there are telepathic balloon aliens somewhere out there, but that that's not what the equation is trying to determine. So "ƒc" ends up equaling zero.

Therefore, I have two variables in the equation that I see as zero, and I only need one to make the whole thing zero. And no, I don't know for sure that any particular variable equals zero, but neither do you know for sure that it doesn't. Does or doesn't. Not enough information to tell either way.

I've said it before. Rather than stand as some kind of "proof" that aliens are out there, the Drake Equation actually shows you how incredibly, astronomically improbable it is that life managed to exist and develop on Earth, and why there probably isn't any other intelligent life like us out there.

reply to post by Blue Shift


while you got some good points one major fact stays in my mind, if WE ARE HERE in the near infinate reaches of the universe there must be or have been at least one more like us, drake equasion says more and rightly so.

Originally posted by Biigs
while you got some good points one major fact stays in my mind, if WE ARE HERE in the near infinate reaches of the universe there must be or have been at least one more like us, drake equasion says more and rightly so.

That's not what it says at all. And just because we are here, doesn't mean anything. There are singular, unique things in the universe, after all.

Considering the incredibly astronomical number of random things that had to have happened for us to exist, the probability of us being here is probably not all that much different than any single one of us existing -- e.g., approaching infinity. So imagine all the things that had to happen for Abraham Lincoln to exist. Abraham Lincoln. Now tell me how many other Abraham Lincolns there currently are or have been out in the universe.

Those are the kinds of odds we're talking about here.

I believe that there is life elsewhere but the drake equation is kind of like just quantum wankery. You could work the drake equation and replace "life" with "Ipads" and use it as "proof" that ipads exsist elsewhere.

Playing around with the interactive equation on the site, I came to the conclusion, completely without basis, that there are almost certainly several civilizations out there.

My number was 51.

So with your calculations , if all the conditions were perfect there might be 51 in our galaxy. Think about it this way on our planet the conditions are 100% perfect and it has only happened once in millions of years.

A high probability is not a guaranteed certainty.

What a lot of speculation.
Drakes equations rely on fantasy not fact.
There is no evidence new Stars are being formed, stars are being found but no evidence they are forming.
Where does life come from? This perplexing question still hasn't been adequately answered, to imply scientific formula where science has no foundation is spurious at best.
Abiogenesis seems impossible here on earth, why would it be possible any where else. Yes life exists but science cant explain it existing.
While we find abundant evidence of alien life on Earth we find no evidence outside of the planet.
Seti spends millions and have nothing of any value to justify their budget. They seem to be looking outward as does Mr Drake. Yet there is no evidence to support the game.

Drakes equation is a scientist playing fairy tale myth, worthy of religion?
It is fun though