When will ATS accept Peak Oil as a reality? Will it be to late?

Being a reader of ATS for 3 years now I've noticed how little attention has been given to the peak oil problem our species is facing. It forced me to ask myself this question, "When will the majority of ATS users accept that peak oil is a reality?".

Will it be when the mainstream media is talking about oil price shocks and shortages? Will it be when we have rolling blackouts or rations at the pumps?


So that is the question I asked the fellow readers of this much under used forum in ATS. When do you think ATS will wake up, and will it be to late?

reply to post by epsilon69


I'll accept the idea of Peak Oil when all the capped and waiting wells have been opened up.

There is more oil sitting idly in the ground right now then we have used in our entire history.

The concept of Peak Oil justifies high prices, it does not have any relation to actual supply.


ETA...

I live in an area where this is rampant btw...I know people who work in the exploration industry in my area; Every time they have sunk a test well they have found oil.

Production however is hovering around 0%

There are more capped wells and unexploited, easily accessible fields then there are active production areas.

reply to post by [davinci]


But when has price had anything to do supply/demand for oil? Never.

TPTB change gas prices to help stabilize the economy in time of financial struggle. Even with the capped and waiting wells full of oil, its still a greedy nasty business in which the public has no say in when we diverge from oil to something else.

ahhh this is a great debate.
Either we are out of oil, relatively speaking, or there is plenty just waiting to go.
If there is plenty and it's just a handful of people that hold the strings,
maybe not today or tomorrow but eventually the 99% will eat them.
How do we not know the real amount of oil ready to go?
A $10,000, 100 mile range all electric car (loaded w airbags,too many suvs out there)
would fix the oil companies wagons, I bet.

reply to post by AaronWilson


Peak Oil is not about supply and demand, not in a rational way at least.

Peak Oil is the idea that we are running out of oil.

We aren't.

There is a massive demand for oil and an even larger supply. It's disgusting, but it is the volume of oil that created the limits on it's actual supply.

Look at it this way...Exxon made $1500 a second last year and just announced that quarterly profits are up 41% from last year.

That type of money is not possible if one is selling a cheap/plentiful commodity.

i know it will never happen.....

but if some depleted oilfields were left idle for 50-100 years... i bet that there would be a lot of oil in those empty fields...

it just takes time for the Abiotic oil to replace the underground reserves that were locked in porous strata & rocks for eons.... oil that was there but got dried up became coal, and that thought line accounts for all the various oil types below the surface... the sweet oil like WTI (west texas intermediate), the sulphur free oil in Saudi... the thick oil in Iraq Iran, the North Slope oil, the North Sea oil, the Arctic pleasant oil.... etc etc


hey just my opinion, there is No scientific proof available to validate my views
because that info & factoids is not released by the oil mega corps

reply to post by epsilon69


I would say never. By the time we run out of oil computers will be antiques and websites will be a footnote in history books.

We even have the ability to turn coal into oil and it is starting to get cheaper than pulling the crude out of the ground.

Want to take a guess how much coal is in existence? Why do all the peak oil articles always ignore the facts?

reply to post by epsilon69


Explanation: S&F!

Peak Oil doesn't matter BECAUSE OL has ALREADY provided solutions to these issue's already on ATS!

Here...

Hey Presto! Out of Thin Air! A magical new currency and economy! (by OmegaLogos posted on 8-9-2010 @ 05:30 AM) [ATS]

And ...

A load of Hot Air so thick you could cut it! Yes Or No? [Caution: contains maths!] (by OmegaLogos posted on 27-2-2011 @ 03:01 AM) [ATS]

Personal Disclosure: We just have to employ the simple concept of Compressed Air!

Originally posted by AaronWilson
reply to post by [davinci]

 

But when has price had anything to do supply/demand for oil? Never.

TPTB change gas prices to help stabilize the economy in time of financial struggle. Even with the capped and waiting wells full of oil, its still a greedy nasty business in which the public has no say in when we diverge from oil to something else.

You do realise we use oil for more then just driving and flying stuff right?

Thats just the most obvious use of it, but pretty much all of the components in your pc have some form of oil in it, and that's just 1 common household item nowadays.

Modern days society Is built with, from, and because of oil.

"Peak oil" is a fact...just as peak ( "fill in the blank")...
All resource "Distribution" in Nature tends to follow a "bell curve". every finite resource has a "peak" followed by an immutable decline.
Re the "Abiotic oil" theory:
Even if the earths center is filled with an ever replenishing form of oil( "abiotic oil "), it still takes a millenia to seep upwards and fill the reserves. we ARE using it faster than it is "replenishing"..Like trying to suck juice from a potato with a straw you can only get so much at any one time; Even if the potato holds a substantial amount of liquid.

China and India are just now coming into their own as "first world" economies.
Petroleum DEMANDwill continue to increase;while WELL DOCUMENTED PRODUCTION levels have remained fairly constant since 2005(?)

After all "peak oil" is NOT about "the last drop" it IS about " Energy expended over energy returned". Once it takes a barrel of oil to get a barrel of oil production you have zero energy returned. you are farther ahead not burning energy exploring/drilling/etc.

reply to post by OmegaLogos


OmegaLogos one of the problems I see with your plan to run cars and trucks on compressed air is not the price per unit of the availability of air, but the fact that compressed air is not an energy source. Unless we find a large number or pre-filled compressed air tanks lying around some where then all compressed air will ever be is an energy storage device like hydrogen. You see it takes more energy to compress the air then you get back out of it in the form of kinetic energy in driving the car powered by the compressed air or nitrogen.

reply to post by epsilon69


No one cares because we know the electric car is here again (google it), as well as other cars that use other technology (hydrogen, etc..). So if they want something that consumes something they can control, it is feasable in many forms, if they care only about the car companies not what commodity cars can consume, then it's a no brainer. Electric it will be.

The people worrying should not be us little people, it should be OPEC and their partners. Countries who's main export is oil will end up with problems too. Right now I can probably find a guy who can build me some kind of electric car modified from a hybrid, or I can buy a hybrid that needs gas once a month LOL.

All provided we are truly at Peak Oil, which cannot be proven scientifically. Only the long term will determine that. Oil is not the problem, the way people think is.

reply to post by epsilon69


Peak Oil for who? It would be nice if we had hundreds of billions of barrels just waiting to be pumped like the Middle East. But we don't. So, yes America has passed HER peak a long time ago. This explains all the effort and expenditure to build the Alaskan pipeline, The deriks that drill deep in the Gulf of Mexico and all the blood and treasure we pump into occupying the Middle Eastern oil fields that aren't as dry as we. So, yah, peaked.

Thing that concerns me is what the rest of the worlds bigger players think about us squatting on what they consider to be their Middle Eastern oil "reserves" as well. As time goes on we get weaker and they get stronger.
And what is our Ace in the Hole? The threat of NUKES. Not good....

reply to post by 46ACE


What you say about peak oil is correct and many people fail to recognize that peak oil doesn't mean the world is "running out of oil", there will always be oil in the Earth's crust. What peak oil means is that our production of oil has peaked and that it can only go down from here.

reply to post by epsilon69


The only reason for the shortage over the next couple of hundred years is the radical environmentalist blocking production. On the mainland US alone for instance is enough oil shale for a couple of hundred years and enough natural gas to meet all needs for around 300 years.

Under the Overthrust Belt (Wyoming / Idaho / Utah) is more oil than all of the Saudi oil. I know, I worked for the companies that located the pools thirty years ago when they found them. The wells I and my freinds worked on were all capped and forgotten. The huge field of natural gas on the high Wyoming Desert is largely untouched and the wells are capped. The moment they were located, it was shut down and the permits were blocked.

Shhhhhh, not supposed to know this

Don't fall for the hype. This is not about energy, it's about control. You have to destroy a system before you can rebuild it. The quickest way to destroy our system is through energy including fake shortages and denying what they already have found.

What there is no shortage of are academic elitists who want complete control over everything and all power in their hands using the same methods Obama taught in school.

This is not new at all. I was taught in the early 1970's that all oil would be gone by now and that so called Peak Oil would hit by around 1980. We were also taught that before now half the world would starve and that we would be in an ice age by now. There are not supposed to be any trees left by now. Who said this? Same groups.

You will find the Marxists behind all of these myths. This is their tool to bring us down so they can insert themselves as our royalty. To understand read Alinsky's stuff, the same that Obama taught to his students. We are very lucky somebody found a tape of him indoctrinating his students in Alinskys teachings. He tried to hide it but one video got loose. Problem is people don't understand what it means.

We could be completely on our own resources and have more than enough energy in a couple of decades if not for them blocking the production. The rest is all hype to indoctrinate people so they can take us over. The stupid masses can't be trusted and they must take control of us they believe. The idea of Democracy sickens them and yet they put one of their own inside the White House.

All vehicles can be ran on LNG with almost no pollution and it only costs a few hundred per vehicle to do and LNG is far cheaper to produce. We have plenty available to do that. So why have we not done that? These folks blocked it. We could have gone to LNG decades ago and prevented lots of pollution. Pollution is not what they are after, it's control they want.

Peak Oil is just another catch phrase and control tool to trick people. If they were right, we would have ran out long ago but instead there is more than ever, even though we have not even touched most of ours yet.

reply to post by epsilon69


" Until now these believers in "abiotic oil" have been dismissed as professing "bad science" but -- alas -- a new study has proven them correct! "


Abiotic Oil is Real . The " Peak Oil " Myth has been Disproven........








Vladimir Kutcherov adds that there is no way that fossil oil, with the help of gravity or other forces, could have seeped down to a depth of 10.5 kilometers in the state of Texas, for example, which is rich in oil deposits. As Vladimir Kutcherov sees it, this is further proof, alongside his own research findings, of the genesis of these energy sources -- that they can be created in other ways than via fossils. This has long been a matter of lively discussion among scientists.

"There is no doubt that our research proves that crude oil and natural gas are generated without the involvement of fossils. All types of bedrock can serve as reservoirs of oil," says Vladimir Kutcherov, who adds that this is true of land areas that have not yet been prospected for these energy sources.

But the discovery has more benefits. The degree of accuracy in finding oil is enhanced dramatically -- from 20 to 70 percent. Since drilling for oil and natural gas is a very expensive process, the cost picture will be radically altered for petroleum companies, and in the end probably for consumers as well.

"The savings will be in the many billions," says Vladimir Kutcherov.

To identify where it is worthwhile to drill for natural gas and oil, Vladimir Kutcherov has used his research to arrive at a new method. It involves dividing the globe into a finely meshed grid. The grid corresponds to fissures, so-called 'migration channels,' through underlying layers under the surface of the earth. Wherever these fissures meet, it is suitable to drill.

According to Vladimir Kutcherov, these research findings are extremely important, not least as 61 percent of the world's energy consumption derives from crude oil and natural gas.

The next step in this research work will involve more experiments, but above all refining the method will make it easier to find places where it is suitable to drill for oil and natural gas.

Vladimir Kutcherov, Anton Kolesnikov, and Alexander Goncharov's research work was recently published in the scientific journal Nature Geoscience.

Methane-derived hydrocarbons produced under upper-mantle conditions
Anton Kolesnikov1,2, Vladimir G. Kutcherov2,3 & Alexander F. Goncharov1

Abstract

There is widespread evidence that petroleum originates from biological processes1, 2, 3. Whether hydrocarbons can also be produced from abiogenic precursor molecules under the high-pressure, high-temperature conditions characteristic of the upper mantle remains an open question. It has been proposed that hydrocarbons generated in the upper mantle could be transported through deep faults to shallower regions in the Earth's crust, and contribute to petroleum reserves4, 5. Here we use in situ Raman spectroscopy in laser-heated diamond anvil cells to monitor the chemical reactivity of methane and ethane under upper-mantle conditions. We show that when methane is exposed to pressures higher than 2 GPa, and to temperatures in the range of 1,000-1,500 K, it partially reacts to form saturated hydrocarbons containing 2-4 carbons (ethane, propane and butane) and molecular hydrogen and graphite. Conversely, exposure of ethane to similar conditions results in the production of methane, suggesting that the synthesis of saturated hydrocarbons is reversible. Our results support the suggestion that hydrocarbons heavier than methane can be produced by abiogenic processes in the upper mantle.

Other relevant studies:


1. Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, District of Columbia 20015, USA

2. Lomonosov Moscow State Academy of Fine Chemical Technology, 117571 Moscow, Russia

3. Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden













www.viewzone.com...

The2005 doe.Hirsch report for background.

The Hirsch Report


Robert L. Hirsch is a Senior Energy Program Advisor for SAIC. Previous employment included executive positions at the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the U.S. Energy
Research and Development Administration, Exxon, ARCO, EPRI, and Advance Power Technologies, Inc. Dr. Hirsch is past chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems at the National Academies. He has a Ph.D. in engineering and physics from the University of Illinois.



"Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management" now referred to as the Hirsch Report was sponsored by the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the Department of Energy. Robert Hirsch is the Project Leader for the Science Applications International Corp.
Also read a second report published in Oct 05 by Robert Hirsch and sponsored by DOE titled "The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production"

Here is the link for the full report. www.netl.doe.gov...

Click Here for Oct 2005 Hirsch report titled "The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production" Very Important Report and worth reading. This is a shorter version of the report published in the Bulletin of the Atlantic Council

Click Here for Flash version of Dr. Hirsch presentation

Following is a summary of the report:

"Peaking" is the point where production reaches its max and begins to decline, whether we are describing a single oil field or the world's oil fields as a whole. Peaking is a reservoir's maximum oil production rate, which typically occurs after roughly half of the recoverable oil in a reservoir has been produced. This concept is important because satisfying increasing oil demand not only requires continuing to produce older oil reservoirs with their declining production, it also requires finding new ones, but we have declining finds for the past 30plus years.

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem.
To manage the problem we face we need 10-20 years of accelerated efforts including conservation.
Peaking will result in dramatically higher oil prices
Time table of peaking is unknown but many studies and experts believe we are in the decade that will see "peaking", some predicting peaking before 2010.
The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society. The challenges and uncertainties need to be much better understood. Timely, aggressive risk management will be essential.

The Hirsch Report asks the following question: With a history of failed forecasts, why revisit the issue now of world oil shortages. Here is their answer.

Extensive drilling for oil and gas has provided a massive worldwide database that is much more extensive than in years past.
Seismic and other exploration technologies have advanced dramatically, nevertheless oil reserves discovered per exploratory well began dropping worldwide over a decade ago. (see charts at bottom of page)
Many credible analysts have become much more pessimistic about the possibility of finding the huge reserves needed to meet world demand.
Because oil prices have been high for the past decade oil companies have conducted extensive exploration, yet results have been disappointing. This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of oil production.

www.nyswda.org...


Again: Even if "abiotic oil" exists... we are still increasing world demand at levels that far outstrip the 3(??) russian deep wells.

We need to wean ourselves off "petroleum" both combustion and for manufacturing commodities..

Peak oil will happen but recognizing that there is peak oil has nothing to do with coming up with a solution to replace oil derived transportation fuels. No matter how hard you believe in peak oil, alternatives are not going to happen because of your belief in peak oil. Your prayers and awareness, I am sad to say, will not work.

If you believe in renewable energy sources, I have some bad news. Renewable energy production consumption has increased quite recently...

The production and use of non-hydropower renewable energy sources were up in recent years. Wind and biofuels consumption (the dark blue and red bars) increased about 16 times and 8 times, respectively, between 2000 and 2010. Overall consumption of renewable energy, including hydropower, represented about 8% of total energy consumption in the United States in 2010.

www.eia.gov...
www.eia.gov...

...but greatly lags coal, gas, nuclear and oil.



www.eia.gov...

In fact, natural gas has had the greatest growth in electricity production in recent years:

The June 16 edition of Today in Energy examined the wide age range of all electric power generators for all fuels; today's article looks specifically at natural gas-fired generators. At the end of 2010, natural gas-fired generators constituted 39% of the Nation's total electric generation capacity of 1,042 gigawatts (GW). Nearly 237 GW of natural gas-fired generation capacity was added between 2000 and 2010, representing 81% of total generation capacity additions over that period.

www.eia.gov...
www.eia.gov...

Ever wonder why oil and gas shale production is rising? There is your answer.

So what does this have to do with peak oil? Real question is what does recognition or awareness of peak oil have to do with any of the above?

Originally posted by Blaine91555
reply to post by epsilon69

 

The only reason for the shortage over the next couple of hundred years is the radical environmentalist blocking production. On the mainland US alone for instance is enough oil shale for a couple of hundred years and enough natural gas to meet all needs for around 300 years.

Under the Overthrust Belt (Wyoming / Idaho / Utah) is more oil than all of the Saudi oil. I know, I worked for the companies that located the pools thirty years ago when they found them. The wells I and my freinds worked on were all capped and forgotten. The huge field of natural gas on the high Wyoming Desert is largely untouched and the wells are capped. The moment they were located, it was shut down and the permits were blocked.

Shhhhhh, not supposed to know this

Don't fall for the hype. This is not about energy, it's about control. You have to destroy a system before you can rebuild it. The quickest way to destroy our system is through energy including fake shortages and denying what they already have found.

What there is no shortage of are academic elitists who want complete control over everything and all power in their hands using the same methods Obama taught in school.

This is not new at all. I was taught in the early 1970's that all oil would be gone by now and that so called Peak Oil would hit by around 1980. We were also taught that before now half the world would starve and that we would be in an ice age by now. There are not supposed to be any trees left by now. Who said this? Same groups.

You will find the Marxists behind all of these myths. This is their tool to bring us down so they can insert themselves as our royalty. To understand read Alinsky's stuff, the same that Obama taught to his students. We are very lucky somebody found a tape of him indoctrinating his students in Alinskys teachings. He tried to hide it but one video got loose. Problem is people don't understand what it means.

We could be completely on our own resources and have more than enough energy in a couple of decades if not for them blocking the production. The rest is all hype to indoctrinate people so they can take us over. The stupid masses can't be trusted and they must take control of us they believe. The idea of Democracy sickens them and yet they put one of their own inside the White House.

All vehicles can be ran on LNG with almost no pollution and it only costs a few hundred per vehicle to do and LNG is far cheaper to produce. We have plenty available to do that. So why have we not done that? These folks blocked it. We could have gone to LNG decades ago and prevented lots of pollution. Pollution is not what they are after, it's control they want.

Peak Oil is just another catch phrase and control tool to trick people. If they were right, we would have ran out long ago but instead there is more than ever, even though we have not even touched most of ours yet.

Prove you worked in the oil fields. Prove you KNOW we are sitting pretty. Betcha you can't...

second line.