Your appraisal of my expertise is very kind but in essence I am only an amateur and not an expert, even though I may know a little more than some.
PRETENDING FOR A MOMENT that such a quake DOES occur in some such locations wherein one would logically think that all great stresses had been relieved by the earlier large quake . . .
What PERCENTAGE of . . adjustment . . .
of your constructions on quake realities would that trigger?
The problem here is that it is difficult to pretend!! If I may sort of digress a moment I am interested in the 1896 quake. If that was 8.5 on the (then non existent) Richter scale I am assuming that this has been determined form shaking reports as is often the way with historical quakes.
I noted before that there is not any evidence of Mag 9 quakes in the area, but Iwate prefecture is close enough and this may possibly be reporting 8.5 on the Richter scale in the which case it might be that the area has indeed had an earthquake approaching the same magnitude before. I am also particularly interested because this pretty much fits into the ~50 year cycle in that 2011 - 50 = 1961. That 'period' was from 1957 to 1964 and 1957-50 takes us close to that earthquake. Think of San Francisco and then perhaps Japan 1896 to San Francisco 1906 was the 'period' of high activity then.
Question is was there a mega-quake in Japan in 1952 or thereabouts. Well sort of. There was an 8.1 on Hokkaido Island in 1952.
It may well be in light of this that there is indeed a pattern such I believe I am seeing in these major quakes.
As you may have gathered I am not really far enough on to be able to answer your question in many respects. From the data I have so far as I mentioned before only Alaska and Indonesia seem to have had mega-quakes following mega-quakes within a year to 18 months.
Each area is very different and you cannot look at the world as a whole and deduce patterns as they just don't fit all areas.
At present I can say with reasonable certainty that the Santa Cruz Islands will not have another big energy release for about 6 to 8 years based on stress build up over time, but this is just one of over 700 areas I need to look at, and even here it looks as if the area went very quiet after Banda Aceh, so there are even more inputs that may need to be accounted.
At present all I can say is that I honestly believe that we may have just passed through the tail end of one of these high activity cycles which appeared to be linked to sun spot activity (not CMES - sunspots) and it is interesting to note that the Sun also has a 56 year cycle, but I have not put the two together yet.
If there is a link that I believe we can expect a seismically quieter period for the next 20 years or so. Mind you at the current rate it will take me that long to work it all out!! I will try and give you the answer before my 90th birthday (27 years) if we both make it that far!!
before it's all over and the literal Armageddon is finished.
The planet we live on is very much quieter now that it has been in the past. Humans are too short lived to be able to deal with the events of the planet on a geological time scale. I do not believe that we have seen even a small part of the forces of which the planet is capable when forming mountains and folding rocks or when spewing out large igneous provinces to mention a few examples.
Sorry it is not as specific as I feel you would have liked, but I hope it helps.
