Future Trends in Telecommunications...

My microelectronics professor in college gave a nice speech the other day, where he predicted the future of telecommunications. In short, he said that in 20-30 years time:

-all Internet access will be cable lines (or better)... dial-up will have gone the way of the dinosaurs
-every individual will be issued a personal cell phone number, and have their own cell phone; land phone lines for bulidings and offices would only exist in rare places, and for emergencies only
-The networks will die off, and cable TV will become the way everyone watches TV
-Just as electricity, running water, and access to transportation (like a car or bus) are essential rights for people now, in 20-30 years time, as they become essential to our society, having cable TV, a PC with Internet access, and a cell phone will also go from being a privelege to a right

Pretty amazing predictions! What do you think? What are your predictions for the future of telecommunications?

Cable? Taking into account convergence and recent trends, I'd say that ANY form of cable based communications system will have gone the way of the dinosaurs. I mean 30 years....look how far computers have advanced in that time. I'd say everything will be wireless, if we're talking about 30+ years I'd even venture as far as saying quantum encryption wouldn't be out of the question as a reliable way of securing wireless communications.

Cellphones, PDA's, laptops. They won't exist. The smartphones that are starting to emerge today in my opinion will be the way of the future. Taking into account moore's law, that processing power doubles every 18months. The last smartphone I looked at had a 120Mhz processor, so in 30years time, we're looking at a 125.83Ghz mobile/pda (ok so it won't be THAT fast. I'm taking moore's law literally but hurdles in heat management, production processors, technology limits etc will slow development down), so let's say 50Ghz as a conservative estimate. With that amount of power, and an IMMENSE storage capacity to boot, why would we need laptops anymore? One device could do the job of four (or more).

I'd love to say we will have a cashless society but well ... how long have people been saying that I think some form of smart card is not totally out of the question either.

Hybrid Fiber Coax or Fiber To The Home Networks are what is coming. HFC networks are somewhat common. FTTH is what people are looking at as a future option.

The price of fiber is now moving back down after the glut on fiber 2 years ago. Many, many vendors are producing equipment that will make it possible for every home to have their own dedicated fiber.

I agree that bandwidth is currently the limitation, but in the very near future will no longer be a bottleneck.

Another technology to keep your eye on is satellite. It's not completely new, but it is improving to a point where it will not be cumbersome for long.

Bandwidth... bandwidth is king!

I see them bringing fiber into a community and then people can either access through wireless or they can hook up via ethernet or whatever medium we are using at that time. Bringing glass into everyone's house I think seems a little overkill and very expensive. Houses themselves though will all be prewired with fiber for any needs. I have seen a couple of new house builds and they are all prewired with fiber and Catagory 5 or 6.

The Cable companies knew they're days were numbered and that is why cable internet works for them so well. We will be giving up all broadcast TV because it will all be able to be sent on the internet and you have to go through a list of 5 billion channels to find something you want to watch. Homes and communication will change drastically because you can have a whole TV station dedicated too you since it will be so readily accessible. We will be totally intergrated in every part of our lives due to this. You will be able to see where your families cars are because wireless and GPS will let you find them. Truely the possibilities are endless. But the one big problem I am thinking about is if we start trying to prepare for our future now, what will happen when something else turns around the corner and revolutionizes everything? Will we even need all this fiber and cable thrown everywhere? Or will it just be a complete waste of our time and money when that time comes?