China to invade Afghanistan?

Yesterday I heard a short piece on the radio putting forward an idea from Loretta Napoleoni , Italian economist, author, journalist and political analyst.

1. The war in Afghanistan has been a big failure, in that the opium fields that were not around under Taliban rule are now back in full production, bigger than ever.
2. But its nuot just opium. Afghan suppliers are turning it into high grade heroin and supplying that too.
3. The local markets (Pakistan and other nearby countries) are already well supplied, so the Afghan dealers are increasingly turning to China, a huge untapped market where they see big profits.
4. The Chinese are well aware of their own history, the Opium Wars where foreigners in the 1800's exported huge quantities of Opium to China. They do NOT want this again, and will do "anything" to stop this nasty piece of history from happening a second time...

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: Well they'll do anything meaning they will, they will even invade the country if it's required. This is what diplomats in that region say, that the Chinese will not stop at anything.

abc.net.au


Could be America (and allies) way out of this Afghanistan occupation mess. If China want it, they can have it.
But they wont be so nice about it. They wont be about "winning the hearts and minds" of the locals.

Will never happen, the Chinese have much bigger fish to try, Afghanistan has been used and abused to much for them to care.

reply to post by alfa1

1. The war in Afghanistan has been a big failure, in that the opium fields that were not around under Taliban rule are now back in full production, bigger than ever.

In what way was that a failure?
I thought that was the entire point of the war. It has been thrughout history and BigPharma couldn't let that opportunity slip by...

It'll just be another tally mark for what countries have invaded them...

reply to post by alfa1


We had to let the poppy fields grow, agriculture is the easiest way to jump start a simple economy like that of Afghanistan, because of it's value it's a cash crop, and is one of the largest source of Afghan income. In fact the USA helped propagate the poppy production during the 1980's as well, as a way to self-generate funds for the mujahideen to fight the Soviets. China also supported us in that mission as well.... Poppy production today is about twice what it was prior to our invasion. which over 10+ years i suppose it could be a lot worse.. Edit to add: I notice you said not around during talliban rule? 60,000 tons of poppy capsules were produced every year under Taliban rule.

But anyways.. China won't invade Afghanistan because China is weak and pathetic.. their army would be slaughtered. The Afghan's are now hardened at fighting a far superior American / NATO force.. China would be the "special" kid no one picked for dodge ball..

Kind of a catch 22 here, the US is guarding the poppies.

The US is China's number one customer for slave goods like
those from the Iphone plant that is so bad to work at 12 ppl
decided suicide was better than working there.

You know your jobs TRULY sucks if 12 co-workers opt for death instead.

Of course China might just sell slave goods to the rest of the world.

My money is on the KH-55/555 and its variants on a sneak attack at some point,
and same deal from Russia.

reply to post by alfa1


What, the West will allow China to muscle into one of the largest rare earth minerals markets going? I just do not see that happening, just like i do not see a full withdrawal from Afghanistan until the mining companies have extracted what they need.

Good spot though OP. S and F for you

reply to post by alfa1

If China does invade the route is open thru the Khyber Pass.

en.wikipedia.org...

Alexander the Great, Gengis Khan, and the British have all done it at one time or another.
Could that be why the Chinese have steadfastly clung to Tibet?

American Military planners are concerned about ANY Central Asian country not only coming into Afghanistan but thru it and down into the middle east where, guess what, all that oil is. Thats one of the reasons we are in Afghanistan as a block. Any country with designs on middle eastern oil will have to come thru the US in Afghanistan. Soviets knew that too thats why they invaded. But they couldn't hold on thanks in part to American stingers and aid to UBL and his rebels. Gee, picture sort of comes together, Any mineral reserves or opium are just the icing on the cake.

Originally posted by alfa1

Could be America (and allies) way out of this Afghanistan occupation mess. If China want it, they can have it.
But they wont be so nice about it. They wont be about "winning the hearts and minds" of the locals.

Who do think is running the show? There is more money in drugs than any other business. Easy, untaxed and a big market.
That's how the US has stayed on top for the last 40 years.... drugs.

reply to post by Rockpuck

But anyways.. China won't invade Afghanistan because China is weak and pathetic.. their army would be slaughtered. The Afghan's are now hardened at fighting a far superior American / NATO force.. China would be the "special" kid no one picked for dodge ball..

A strange piece of American bravado. Would you care to back that up with some facts?

I doubt if Chinese troops have to have hamburgers flown out to them at great expense, etc etc.

China uses other countries who are politically in indebted to them to clear the way in countries where they want to put railways in and to safely get their inventories out such as precious metals, oil and the like.

I think I started a thread about it, I will try and look it up.

Ah here it is, thread was a dud but I felt strongly about the truth behind the whole unfolding mess:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Well, let China invade Afghanistan.

They too can pour vast amounts of money into the bottomless pit. Just like the USSR and the USA did. It is part of the reason why we are broke.

I don't think China could afford it in the first place, and that would be very UN-chinese. They generally do not make foolish or stupid moves outside their own country, so I think most likely they will stay away from Afghanistan.
Just my thoughts.

Originally posted by alfa1

Yesterday I heard a short piece on the radio putting forward an idea from Loretta Napoleoni , Italian economist, author, journalist and political analyst.

1. The war in Afghanistan has been a big failure, in that the opium fields that were not around under Taliban rule are now back in full production, bigger than ever.

Hi. Reading through some old threads and came across this.

Just wanted to offer a correction. The Taliban BRIEFLY banned opium crops in Afghanistan. This was done at a time of record opium/heroin supply. This is what businesses do to control supply and price. Too much supply means prices drop. They had been in control in Afghanistan for YEARS without banning poppy crops. Their reasoning had nothing to do with religion or wanting to permanently eradicate opium. It was simply a way to keep prices from bottoming out.

failure? Upping opium productions was one of the main goals, IMHO.

reply to post by alfa1


Why would China invade Afghanistan over this? If anybody should it would be Russia. They are the largest consumers in the region, The Russian MOB has been making a killing.

Russia's heroin epidemic: why the government is ducking the issue...

Russia today has an estimated four million active drug users, one of the highest percentages in the world. The Russian Ministry of Health estimates that drug use rose by 400% between 1992 and 2002, that is, during the ten years prior to the USA/NATO invasion of Afghanistan. As early as 1999 it was perfectly obvious to international organizations working there that Russia was experiencing a wave of HIV infections related to injecting drug use.....

Related to this, and in fact the main reason why there is so much heroin in Russia today, is the deep and widespread corruption within the Russian police forces, border security, and legal institutions. The police are widely believed to work hand in hand with the so-called drug mafia. They certainly exploit drug users, who are regularly rounded up to fulfill monthly arrest quotas. In sum, Russian drug policies and the corruption endemic to the Russian legal system help create a situation in which injecting drug users (IDU) do all they can to avoid the world of official institutions, including the medical facilities that may be able to offer help.

Oh wait, they tried that already never mind....

The Golden Triangle includes but not limited to .....
Source

At present, opium poppies are mostly grown in Afghanistan, and in Southeast Asia, especially in the region known as the Golden Triangle straddling Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Yunnan province in China. There is also cultivation of opium poppies in the Sinaloa region of Mexico and in Colombia. The majority of the heroin consumed in the United States comes from Mexico and Colombia. Up until 2004, Pakistan was considered one of the biggest opium-growing countries