reply to post by cassandranova
I think in someplaces the progressive vs. conservative dynamic could present a threat, but I think it would also have the potential to tear the state
itself apart. Examples: California, where the state one day could be divided into northern and southern regions. In the southern US in many states,
there is an ethnic/political divide that is large enough to be a potential issue. It could be bring rural and urban areas into conflict. I don't
think it would lead to secession by the state governments though, but instead would represent terrorist and insurgent elements within the states.
One thing I should have mentioned earlier in regards to states and state governments is that many local and state governments would not survive the
financial collapse. This would have a huge effect on determining if a state, city, or county might decide to officially revolt. Many of these
governments depend on federal handouts and in the event the financial and economic system comes down, they will lose those handouts. Hyperinflation
and high unemployment will further reduce tax revenue into those governments.
In some places authority could totally collapse, potentials include parts of Nevada, Illinois, Michigan, and California. In others, the people will
band together, regardless of money, protecting and serving out of a sense of patriotic duty. Lastly there will be some, like Texas and Utah, who
should bring in enough business and revenue to survive without federal intervention. Those that can't or won't maintain authority should see some
form of federal intervention, either in the form of the US military or some type of Homeland Stability and Security Forces. It could be bad enough
that in some state governments that they end up as defacto federal territories or commonwealths.
Keep in mind all of that is just during the chaos when the transition should be taking place. It would be during that chaos, that we see any coup,
counter coup, revolts, or any form of civil war.
How does this transition impact North American and the potential for a continental union?
With the global economy in ashes, I could imagine that Canada, the US and Mexico might try to merge their economies in order to survive. I don't
think the Mexican government may survive long enough to get around to summits and treaty signings. Based on the current situation in Mexico and what
could happen if the global economy collapses, Mexico could end up looking like Afghanistan, with multiple narco warlords fighting each other for
territory, while the central government either collapses or only controls Mexico City.
Instead of Mexico signing a treaty to become part of a NAU, what we may end up seeing is US-Canadian security and stability forces intervening in
Mexico. In other words, Mexico loses its sovereignty and ends up being occupied by foreign troops then assimilated into a new supranational entity.
Canada on the other hand is far more stable and could attend talks to begin a process of integration. I think these talks could potentially push
Quebec out of Canada, becoming a future problem that would have to be dealt with at some point.
One aspect I should mention is that I don't think integration talks or intervention in Mexico would take place during the transition though, but
after the new stable government emerges in Washington DC. Once the new strong and stable government rises, the financial system is transformed, and
the economy begins to recover, then we will see the Canadian government, among others, desire to be part of this new paradigm that has emerged as it
offers order in a world of chaos.
If ancient Roman history is any guide and Greece becomes an analog for Western Europe, we won't see just an integration of North America but an
Atlantic Union, incorporating Western Europe from the then collapsed EU.
Like the intervention in Mexico, I would fully expect US and Canadian forces to come to the aid of Europe, starting with the UK, then on to mainland
Europe, eventually completing the circle of history when forces arrive in the city of Rome.