NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

Here is the 8pm update from the NHC

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022335
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

...FRANCES BATTERS SAN SALVADOR ISLAND WITH 120 MPH WINDS...
...NOW HEADING TOWARD CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES
AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR 65
MILES...105 KM SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN CAT ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
355 MILES...570 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA EAST
COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. SAN SALVADOR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120
MPH WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EYEWALL PASSED OVER THE ISLAND...
AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 101 MPH IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE EYEWALL.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. SAN SALVADOR REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 948 MB ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO WHEN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE EYE PASSED OVER THE ISLAND.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

Source: www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Look at the freaking size of this thing!!!
WARNING large image (sorry dialup users)


www.nasa.gov...
www.nasa.gov...
www.nasa.gov...

[edit on 2-9-2004 by TrickmastertricK]

Here is the 09-03-2004 00z IR image of Frances. It is a bit ragged but not terribly so. The problems can be corrected in as little as a few hours.




Sattelite image source: National Hurricane Center

Here is the 09-02-2004 evening model update. The models are in absolute agreement about a Florida landfall. There is however a 75 or so mile margin of error when it comes to the point of landfall. That can make all the difference in the world.



Model Source : wunderground.com

Those are killer pics. Thanks for posting the links.

Originally posted by TrickmastertricK
Look at the freaking size of this thing!!!

WARNING large image (sorry dialup users)


www.nasa.gov...
www.nasa.gov...
www.nasa.gov...

[edit on 2-9-2004 by TrickmastertricK]

Originally posted by jrod
My guess on the stregth is that is has peaked for now at 145mph, in the next 12-24 hrs there is some dry air ahead of the system that will inhibit it's stregthening maybe even go as low as 130mph, after that it will probaly stregthen again right before landfall.

I was right about it weakening, and a little it was probaly down 130mph maybe even lower, and it did look like more than just and eye wall replacement cycle but im not sure if it was dry air, shear or a combo that did it. It does look like its starting to regain some strength again. The NHC doesnt like to lower the winds when it goes through those cycles primarily b/c it gives people a false sense of security and could jeopardize some lives if they think it is on a weakening trend.

Im so over the local news channels all with their own take, one channel I heard but did not witness projected it making landfall with 105mph winds and a lot of people beachside and Cocoa Beach are staying b/c 1. the believe its going to hit far enough south to escape the surge and 2. they believe its going to weaken significantly before landfall.

IM still undecided on where to go and want to make sure I dont drive in the fury. The keys still looks like a good option to me, especially with the latest model runs and I would leave before dawn tommorow.

A BIG to ATS Member Indy, for his consistant coverage in this thread!

This is in part how ATSNN is the best, driven by reporting staff, editors, and most important our amazing members.

Keep up the great work Indy!

For those still in Florida, may god or what ever higher power you believe in be watching over you and yours.

Thanks Gazz. Doing what I can to keep people informed. Of course its really messed up my sleep habbits. Look at the times I have posted.

jrod.. good call on the strength. I wonder how much of this is perhaps an interaction with the islands as well as dry air. I don't really see much of any sheer. The very last IR image looks worse than the previous. Also the core of cold cloud tops seems to be shrinking. Now given the path this storm is taking it will eventually pull away from the islands and have maybe 12 hours until it his the coast of Florida depending on the exact angle in which it makes landfall. That and the very warm waters in that region may allow it to fire up before landfall. That and a very slow moving system will cause great problems.

I was thinking saturday morning around my area would be when it makes landfall, a bit sooner. I dont know what to make of the latest movement, it looks like its almost stationary and even harder to guess on where its gonna go when it moves again, I do know if it goes slow enough it will be picked up by the next trough. Worst case is it does something like Andrew and starts picking up speed toward the coast and stregthening. While its looking more compact so hopefully less widespread damage, those small ones can really get strong fast.

I did get a few pics earlier around the neighborhood and will upload them shortly, I wanted to get a few more but ended up surfing till dark.

This has been probaly posted earlier but I could use some good links to the latest satellite pictures AND the TPC/NHC site's links are way congested and tough to get through w/o timing out.

Keep up the good work Indy!!
The shots from space are awesome!!!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Jim Cantore is in Palm Bay, this is terrible news for Brevard County(where im at). I love his work and all but he's so good at getting in the path of the storm that when he shows up near you its time to run.

I laughed when I saw that. I used to live in Melbourne wich neighbors Palm Bay and I knew when Cantore showed up that pretty much sealed the deal. Look at all the models you want for a prediction. Then toss them aside and look where Cantore is The NHC needs to name a storm after him. Its only right.

I know i'm ready for this! i'm just sitting tight at home if i die at least i repented for my sins right i'm praying everynight for all of you fellow floridians along with all your faimlys and pets stay safe guys

The 11pm AST advisory has been released. The maximum sustained winds have been brought down to 125mph making this storm a category 3. Apparently their is some sheer going on that has disrupted the system a little bit. But there is a great deal of convection around the center and that once the system gets out of this sheer environment in 24 hours that additional strenghthening to a category 4 storm is forecasted.

This change will also take place as two additional things are forecasted to happen. One is that the storm will be slowing down. And the other is that it will be doing so over warmer waters. I can tell you that a slow moving storm over warm waters is never a good thing. The forecast track remains basically unchanged.

That's funny but possibly true, seeing Jim Cantore reporting live as a sign of great trouble or even doom. I have a question about tropical systems in general I thought I would ask here since some folks may lose power in a couple of days due to some inclement weather in Florida. I noticed three other blobs of possibly disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Are any of these forming into depressions or has this been ignored?

*** ANNOUNCEMENT ***


After discussions with Indy and the ATSNN staff. ATSNN Staff will be updating the original post with the most relevant data in order to maximise efficiency and give out the best information to our viewers.

Please do continue to contribute and if you wish anything to be put into the main article then u2u me or Indy and we'll do it. With your help we can have data before anyone else.

Here in Tallahassee gas is being rationed now and I had to wait in line for half an hour just to get gas tonight....

I'm sure we'll get some nasty winds and rain, but for my fellow Floridians on the Southeast coasts, please be prepared....If you work for someplace that expects you to be there when it hits, like a newspaper, don't risk your life for it - get somewhere safe while you still can - Get to North Florida or South Georgia ASAP...

I actually know someone that says he is from Florida and hasn't ruled out going to Disney World this weekend. Maybe he hasn't heard yet if they are going to close or not and it's harder to get a hotel deposit back if Disney World is still open. Is Disney World in the project path of the storm?

Added note: It's been alot of fun making jokes at this guy's expense but I'm concerned that he hasn't really ruled out going to Florida yet. I already asked him if he was going to bring his surf board and catch the Big One.


[edit on 2-9-2004 by orionthehunter]

Disney announced that it will close tomorrow afternoon and will be closed on Saturday.

The problem is... there is no real "projected path" of the storm.

That's good to hear so that my coworker will end his thoughts of traveling into a hurricane. Thanks. I already told him that I read that the governor of Florida asked all tourists to stay away this weekend but he replied by saying that he used to live there so he's not really a tourist.

Originally posted by orionthehunter
I noticed three other blobs of possibly disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Are any of these forming into depressions or has this been ignored?

There is a wave just off the west coast of Africa. I am not sure if it has been named as a depression or a tropical storm just yet, but the reporters seemed to feel it would be by tomorrow. The name started with an I. Ivan or Irvine or something...