NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

Here's where I'm at relative to the track....



I'm where the yellow dot is...

I see where NASA is starting to worry about the three shuttles and their buildings. It seems the roof that houses the shuttles and some space station modules wont withstand winds over 105 mph and the launch tower wont withstand winds over 125 mph.

dsc.discovery.com...

It looks like it may head that way.

I would hate for people to stay because they have no where to go, while I am a pretty long drive from FLA, I am able to shelter some people if the need arises, if anyone in Florida needs a place to crash until this storm passes, just U2U me and I will see what I can do. I don't want to see any unnecessary casualities due to a lack of shelter. This has been a bad hurricane season already and still a few months to go, my heart goes out to all those affected.

BTW I am in NW Virginia for those who need a reference on the driving time, there is also a single engine airstrip close to my house so if flying is an option, I could pick someone up there.

Heres where Im at on that map:



Right now my plan of action is to try to get south of the storm, ill make my decision tommorow. Part of my family wants to go up to Georgia to stay with family. If the storm takes a jog to the south my current plan goes out the window and i got some choices to make.

This storm looks absolutely horrific. It appears to be larger than the State of Florida. I'm sure glad I don't live in Florida. Look at how tight that eye wall is.






[edit on 04/9/1 by GradyPhilpott]

I'll have to let you know if the stores are crazy yet...probably not till tomorrow I hope....as I get off work later tonight....

I just got finished putting up my storm shutters. (Ft. Lauderdale area)

Broward County and Palm Beach Counties, all schools are closed Thursday and Friday. The stores are madness here. water limited, walmart has sold out of everything hurricane related. Plywood out of stock at most Home Depots, Batteries, and flashlights sold out everywhere. Thank God, for making me paranoid freak, because I am well prepared, I restocked on Sunday since I had donated many supplies to help Charley victims. I am a nervous wreck right now and I am praying for that turn that is supposed to happened. This is one scary ass storm.

The 8pm AST advisory for 09-01-2004 is pretty much like the previous one. Winds at 140mph and the pressure at 938mb.

The forecasted track from 5pm has the storm making landfall around the Space Coast.

The IR satellite images today have looked ragged off and on. The storm may have sucked in a bit of dry air. The last IR image looks much better with the storm starting to wrap the deep convection around the center again.

Would you post a link to that IR image above?

There is no plywood left for sale in Brevard county. I wanted to get some pictures of everyone getting ready but I was on the road too much and didnt have time to do that. I will get plenty of pics tommorow. Also my bank put a limit on how much cash you could withdraw, and from what I've heard every other bank had a similar policy. I drove by a lumber yard and traffic was backed about 1/2 a mile into the entrance with cars waiting to get in on US 1(the highway). Tommorow will be a frenzy and we are supposed to have a mandatory evacuation issued at 2pm.

[edit on 1-9-2004 by jrod]

This storm looks like another that years ago brought massive destruction to Florida... remember Andrew?

I think that one was the most destructive storm in U.S. history.

This has been a year of strange weather, and possible climate change. Though this seires of storms forming in the atlantic may seem to be a normal event when you look at the history of storms in that region, But forcasters have had a tough time predicting these events long term this year, it seemed at first it was going to be a very active year, then they backed down from that and now are just scratching their heads with the rest of us.

Part of a possible climate change?.. maybe!

I believe this year has shown all of the extremes of weather to almost everyone so far.. Mother Nature may be trying to warn us.

In case you've missed it you may want to see the report in the following link..

SCI/TECH: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current

For all of those in Florida.. stay alert, be ready to evacuate, and don't be foolish.. Remember Andrew!... Lets hope this one dies, or turns out to sea!

Gazz

Certainly mako...

www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov...

jrod...

It is quite possible that you may be spared. The models that updated at 8pm tonight are telling a different story. The models that updated at 2pm and 8pm have the storm moving to the GA/SC border. But this isn't the first time they've done that. We'll see what happens when 2am updates come in. It seems as if every time the storm gets ragged the models go wild and once it reorganizes itself the models come back into agreement. The storm went ragged today and seems to be reorganizing. So time will tell. But this is certainly too close to do nothing about.

So what are the odds of this going to a CAT5 before landfall?

Originally posted by titian
Jim Cantore was in Punta Gorda long before it turned that way. He had a lesser reporter in Pinellas County, the official target. Hmm, now what did he know?

If Cantore shows up in your area, batten the hatches because he's batting pretty damm good right now.

OMG - I just saw him live in Daytona - UGH!

I am doomed!!!!!

Everyone be safe! It is bad!!!

The way the storm has looked today I am not giving it much of a chance of making cat 5. Actually the way its looked today at times I'm not banking on it holding on to cat 4.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches have been posted all up and down the coast of Florida. There is some really good information in the latest NHC advisory and discussions. I'll post a full update here shortly.

Ok as of 11pm AST 09-01-2004 the wind speed and pressure in the storm is basically unchanged. It didn't get any stronger.

That marks the end of the good news.

Now for the bad news.

Hurricane hunters have been flying around the area of the storm dropping little instrument packs called dropsondes. These devices radio back atmospheric data. This data is then fed into the computer models that build the forecast track of the storm. Well apparently the found something disturbing today. What the models thought was the strength of the high pressure area guiding Frances was wrong. The models had it too weak. The ridge is quite a bit stronger than expected. Because of this error the earlier model updates today were wrong. The shift east was incorrect. With the correct data the models have shifted the path slightly west which drives the storm into the central east coast of Florida.

Thats the bad news.

Now for the worst news.

While the storm has not gotten stronger it has gotten larger. The windfield is enormous. Hurricane force winds extend out at least 45 miles in each direction from the eye. On the east side they extend out some 60 to 70 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend out anywhere from 90 to 160 miles from the center. Including the 20 mile wide eye you are talking about hurricane force winds that extend out about a hundred miles. That compares to about 45 for Charley. And the storm is expected to slow down. A slow moving hurricane is able to cause incredible damage. It gets better/worse. The storm is moving over warmer waters and air that is more humid. The potential for further strengthening exists.

Here is the 11pm forecast track. Note that hurricane watches have been posted along the coast of Florida.



More information will be posted tonight. Please stay tuned!

Anybody know what King Posiedon likes as sacrificial gifts?

Im forecasted to be in the NE quadrant of the storm(i wont be here and my house probaly wont stay too long either) and am doing what I can to get ready.