NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

Sorry for 3 posts in a row. If you want to consider the potential damage to housing only along the potential strike area in Florida here are the numbers.

St. Lucie: $8.25 billion
Indian River: $6.4 billion
Brevard: $21.8 billion
Volusia: $19 billion
Flagler: $3.2 billion
St. Johns: $10 billion
Duval: $30.6 billion

For a total housing value of right around $100 billion dollars. Those numbers are compiled from the US Census figures for housing units and estimated average values for each unit in each county. This damage potential does not include the utilities, schools, hospitals, etc. It also does not take into account damage to commercial and industrial properties. It also does not take in to consideration lost income from tourism. A direct hit on Brevard, Volusia or Duval county would be horribly expensive. It will most likely break the record set by Andrew. All bets are off if this storm rides the coast line.

This storms looks to be a monster coming to Florida and wherever north it goes. I expect it could move across most of Florida and still be hurricane status well up into Georgia and maybe even South Carolina if it goes over Florida first. I hope my relatives in Jacksonville will have time to leave if it appears certain to hit there. Actually if hurricane force winds extend over 75 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles out from the center, almost everyone will notice this monster in Florida.

One added note on this storm that may not be getting much press. I heard on the Weather Channel that they are forecasting the storm to slow down its forward rate of travel later in the week as it approaches Florida (maybe it wants to prolong everyone's pain). Anyway if this doesn't happen as they are currently forecasting, the storm could hit Florida earlier than expected on Friday I believe I heard. Just remember hurricane forecasts are probably based on past data. Now let's see, how many monster storms do they have data on? All I will say is it's better to be prepared for the worst than not at all. At least you will live to fight another day. Even if you think your house can survive 160 mph winds for hours, how about tornadoes that can go over 300 mph? There's a monster coming.

Good post Orion. Not sure about the slowdown. I saw the same report you did. The NHC projections don't include a slowdown. But then again TWC isn't exactly famous for accurate and unbiased reporting. Is it just me or do they seem to have something against the Carolinas? They try and root every storm into the Carolinas. Even with a majority of the models bring the storm in to Florida they focus on the 1 or 2 that take it farther north. If you really want to know where its going just follow Cantore. (spelling?)

"Hurricane winds are a force to be reckoned with by coastal communities deciding how strong their structures should be. As winds increase, pressure against objects is added at a disproportionate rate. Pressure against a wall mounts with the square of windspeed so that a threefold increase in windspeed gives a nine-fold increase in pressure. Thus, a 25 mph wind causes about 1.6 pounds of pressure per square foot. A four by eight sheet of plywood will be pushed by a weight of 50 pounds. In 75 mph winds, that force becomes 450 pounds, and in 125 mph winds, it becomes 1250 pounds. For some structures, this force is enough to cause failure."

Source: www.co.orange.tx.us...

Going from 75 to 150 the pressure doesn't double but rather it quadruples to 1800 pounds. And its not just the wind that will take down the house but the flying debris as well.

Originally posted by Indy
.............. But then again TWC isn't exactly famous for accurate and unbiased reporting. Is it just me or do they seem to have something against the Carolinas? They try and root every storm into the Carolinas. Even with a majority of the models bring the storm in to Florida they focus on the 1 or 2 that take it farther north. If you really want to know where its going just follow Cantore. (spelling?)

Its a conspiracy to worry as many coastal residence as possible so they go rushing to the stores for supplies. Lowe's is a big sponsor of the TWC so they probaly got some sort of shady deal.

psycho-skitzo-wannabe conspiracy theorist mood is now off


My Meteorology 101 professor gave us in Brevard a three strike rule for incoming hurriances.
Strike 1: Nasa roll backs the shuttle and/or takes other measures to secure themselves
Strike 2: PAFB evacuates, this is obvious because convoys of trucks will be leaving and many noisy jets also will be departing
Strike 3: Jim Cantore shows up


This storm is going to dwarf the damage of Charlie. Some of the models are even showing slow down durring or right after landfall, or maybe if we get lucky right before landfall. A slow moving major hurricane making landfall is one of the worst case scenerios I can think of right now. If it stays offshore of Florida and does this it will still cause major beach erosion but ill take that over the other likley scenerios any day.

Currently I am just north of the forecasted past and nervious as hell about it. Ill know by thursday if Im getting out of here or if the bullet missed us.

[edit on 1-9-2004 by jrod]

2x post, my bad.

[edit on 1-9-2004 by jrod]

Hey any chance you could swing by Home Depot and Lowes over on 192 and take a few pics of the mad rush and post it here? Perhaps the same for Winn Dixie and Publix as well. Or any interesting prep photos you can get ahold of. And then get out of Dodge :-).

I almost got myself killed about 6 years ago chasing a storm in Indiana. I didn't follow the rules and I about bought the farm. Learn from my mistakes. Don't try it. Save the live storm footage for Jim Cantore.

Also be very careful after the storm passes. Downed power lines will be a BIG problem. Electric service will be unreliable and equipment will go out all over. Er... um... I guess that makes it a normal day for FPL customers. lol

Nothing exciting of interest in the 2am advisory. Same as the 11pm advisory. I don't expect too much in real information until 11am or 2pm after the hunters have gone out.

Be sure to check out the Frances archives at...

www.climatepatrol.com...

There are over a hundred bits of information including countless satellite images, model comparisons, etc.

I'm off to bed. More info will be posted tomorrow.

Update: 5am AST. Winds remain steady at 140mph and the pressure has fallen to 935mb. The latest path projection has emphasized its move into central Florida. Wind forecasts virtually the same with the storm being just below category 5 at landfall.

Now... what is going on with this storm? Look at the last 4 images on this page...

www.climatepatrol.com...

About 12 hours ago the storm was smaller with a larger eye. It is going trough a transformation. Larger storm now and a smaller eye. Usually a smaller eye allows the storm to strengthen. It allows it to spin faster like a figure skater pulling her arms in on the spin. Should be interesting to watch.

interesting to those who don't live in it s path.

I live in jax and my mom lives in Vero on the barrier island.

this one is freaking me out.

This is horrible timing for my vacation. I'm going down to West Palm Beach Friday to play some golf. At least I can blame my bad scores on the wind!

So far in Cocoa Beach on the barrier island has strike one and two. PAFB is getting ready for an EVACUATION and KSC is doing the same. Both will be closed tommorow and Friday because of the storm.

Now im just waiting for Jim Cantore to show up and ensure me that we are about to be eatin up by Frances.

Jim Cantore was in Punta Gorda long before it turned that way. He had a lesser reporter in Pinellas County, the official target. Hmm, now what did he know?

If Cantore shows up in your area, batten the hatches because he's batting pretty damm good right now.

If you live in florida, and your not prepared for the WORST by friday night,
your stupid and darwinism demands that nature take its course on you.

DONT WAIT! this one is going to be bad, worse than the last one...
my predictions for landfall (wed about noon now) are between west palm and daytona....plus then the path inland as it churns like a dervish over orlando again.

This season is going to really hurt florida's economy badly....
and the nation WILL have to lend a big hand.

Keep in mind, it's still a ways away... They were COMPLETELY wrong on the Charlie track, even on the day it made landfall...

are you all gonna sit this one out with us fellow ATSers?

No choice really....the last storm, everyone left for Orlando, and look what that got them! I'm in a pretty safe area (heck, there's a shelter about 100 yards away), and we can batten down the house pretty good. We'll see if I have to get out the boards and hammer, nails on Friday I guess...

Doing a little hurricane shopping tonight to beat the rush over the next couple days... A lot of people aren't taking it seriously though, as they remember how Charlie missed and that's a big mistake imho... Sorry, but if you're ANYWHERE inside that cone or within 50 miles of it's edge, you should be preparing for the worst... A cat 5 storm (likely what it'll be) is nothing to sneeze at....

Gazrok.. they weren't terribly wrong on Charley. They missed the track by what? 75miles? But they did mess up the wind prediction a bit. But there is also doubt as to the last wind update. It wasn't a very solid reading and it was only a single observation and the barometric pressure wasn't in the same ballpark as the listed wind speed. I think the wind speeds were fudged about 15 miles on the high side.

Frances on the other hand has winds where they should be for a storm with a pressure of 937mb.

This just on the news --

Florida announces mandatory evacuation of 300,000 people in Palm Beach County starting Thursday morning. Good luck to all of them. I got out of Miami just before Andrew hit there. I saw pics of the condo I had lived in .. flat out and drying in the sun ... My prayers to all of you down in Florida.

[edit on 9-1-2004 by MasterCoyote]

QUOTE
Florida Calls for Hurricane Evacuations

MIAMI (AP) - Hundreds of thousands of people were told Wednesday to get ready to evacuate as powerful Hurricane Frances crept closer to Florida just weeks after Hurricane Charley's rampage.

About 300,000 residents in coastal areas of Palm Beach County were told to evacuate starting 2 p.m. Thursday.

Craig Fugate, director of the state Division of Emergency Management, said steps were being taken for to prepare for large-scale evacuations, including possibly reversing lanes of some highways to accommodate fleeing coastal residents.

apnews.myway.com...
QUOTE

At least someone is thinking straight for once.

[edit on 9-1-2004 by MasterCoyote]

The system that's supposed to hold off this storm or press against it to keep it from hitting the lower portion of the state looks tiny compared to the storm.

To us, it looks like this storm is going to hit much lower in the state.

My son has informed me the temp has been about 100* in the Keys and the water is very warm. This will be a contributing factor in lots tornadoes developing.

Check out the java animated storm movement:

hurricane.terrapin.com...

[edit on 1-9-2004 by mako0956]

Indy's been doing a phenomenal job with this one. Several people have mentioned being prepared no later than Friday. This is a very large storm with a very large wind field. The time to prepare is now for those in SE Florida. By later tonight or tomorrow morning SE Florida should be feeling tropical storm force winds. A hurricane watch is likely on the way for them. Tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles NW of the eye.

URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov...

THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.

Gazrok.. they weren't terribly wrong on Charley.

Numbers, numbers... On the morning of landfall, they were dead sure the Tampa Bay area was going to get hit head on, and have hurricane force winds. We didn't even have much of a breeze, though we were about 13 miles from the outer edge of the eye (all because of the quadrant of the storm we were in). As far as anyone in Tampa Bay was concerned, they couldn't be more off... A silly conclusion, yes, but the general concensus nonetheless....

This is why people aren't going to take it seriously here. Personally, I think such people are idiots, but I'm simply reiterating what I've heard from talking to people... I am taking it VERY seriously.

By later tonight or tomorrow morning SE Florida should be feeling tropical storm force winds. A hurricane watch is likely on the way for them. Tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles NW of the eye.

That's why I'm preparing tonight...and I'm in SW Florida....

[edit on 1-9-2004 by Gazrok]

Storm Info


I live in Volusia County , Florida. We are not taking this storm lightly ppl are already buying supplies, boarding up, and some leaving. There is still debry everywhere from hurricane Charley. Here is a link to help track this storm. Unbelievable 2 major storms in less than 3 weeks!!!! Everyone be safe!!