NEWS: Hurricane Frances Makes Landfall!

08-30-2004 8pm AST Intermediate Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AS A STRONG CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER TONIGHT.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES
...305 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS IN A
FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 180 MILES...290 KM.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ESTIMATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 60.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

This one has all the makings of being a real nasty storm by the time it gets to the U.S.A.

Thanks to Indy for bringing us the coverage!

I am so glad I did not move to Florida 2 years ago when I had the chance

At least with modern technology we have much advanced warnings for events like this... Hope people learn from the last one and get the hell out of the way when and if the time comes to evacuate!

Ugh -everyone is freakin down here. I will be leaving w/ just the clothes on my back & the laptop if they evacuate.

Could be nothing left!

But it's still early - anything could happen - right ???? am I right????

FL neophite

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this system just yet. If I were anywhere between West Palm Beach, Fl and Savanah, GA I'd keep my eye open. I'd get cash tomorrow personally. Make sure you have it just in case. You don't want to be scrambling to hit the ATM at the last moment just to find its empty. Also go ahead and fill up your car. Its small things you can do that will save time later IF the call to evacuate came. You'll use the gas eventually anyway. And the cash you can always put back. There will probably be 16 to 20 revisions to the forecast between now and Saturday. Things will change. Question is how much?

k- I am being told emergency services personnel in volusia county (daytona area) is sending their wives & children out tomorrow before the evacuation notice comes.

that's all I know. Yikes!!!

Here are the image updates as promised. The first image is the combined models from wunderground.com

external image

The latest update was BAMM at 8pm EDT. It still has the storm striking the east coast of Florida. Too soon to tell so please don't base your plans on this model run.

The next image is a bit large to post here so check out the image sequences...

www.climatepatrol.com...

In the last few images in the list the storm has taken on the buzz saw appearance.

The same goes for the water vapor image on this page. Go to the large image at the bottom...

www.climatepatrol.com...

This is a very well formed storm with alot of moisture to work with and nothing to break it up. The two large images in the previous two links are both from the NHC website.

Here is a recent closeup of the storm in IR mode. This is supposed to be a volcanic ash image but this works great for this storm. Unfortunately half the storm is not visible but you get the idea.

external image

Here is an IR Atlantic shot with Frances in focus. The core of storms around the eye has filled in perfectly. This is as well defined as a storm is going to get. Question remains is how strong will it get. With clear skies (so to speak) ahead and water temps that will be approaching 30c people should be nervous. This storm means business.

external image

If you haven't seen it yet I have an archive of NHC advisories, discussions and a variety of images at...

www.climatepatrol.com...

The sources of the data include weather.unisys.com, wunderground.com, www.nhc.noaa.gov and a few other NOAA related sites.

08-30-2004 11pm AST Advisory from the NHC

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...MAHJOR HURRICANE FRANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES... 245 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...19.7 N... 61.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$


Sorry for posting the entire advisory but as the storm gets closer to land the NHC site will be swamped with traffic and getting access to the data may be difficult.

Note: In this advisory the pressure is listed as ESTIMATED. Apparently the hurricane hunters have not gotten a real reading since the last update. Looking at the satellite images I would guess to see a pressure of 940mb with the next live update.

Here is a quote from the 11pm AST discussion from the NHC with something key bolded by me. Take note of it.

"FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE MOTION IS NOW 280/12. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GASTON AND HERMINE EXIT THE PICTURE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE NHC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE....THE GFS...MODELS BEND THE TRACK FRANCES SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS TOWARD NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THE UKMET... CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE LATEST ETA MODEL RUN KEEP FRANCES ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE LONG RANGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING."

08-30-2004 11pm AST NHC projected path image. Note.. the margin of error over 2 days is big. Over 4 to 5 days is worse. So this is in no way a guarantee. This is just an indicator.


external image

Indy - Awesome job on keeping track of this storm - you should be dubbed the official meterologist of ATS - you're giving me a better idea of what I'm in store for than the weather channel

Just wait until Jim Cantore takes over for them. LOL. If you see him in front of your place you know its too late to leave.

I was watching the WC when Charlie hit - I don't know if ya'll remember watching this or not, but he was out there in his yellow rain jacket barely even standing and his whole face and mouth was flapping around in the wind like he was ina centerfuge...and he's trying to talk - to tell us some insightful comments....but I'll be damned if I didn't get a single thing out of it b/c I was laughing so damn hard

Just pulled this from the NHC website...

000
URNT12 KNHC 302155
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 30/2117Z
B. 19 DEG 26 MIN N
60 DEG 03 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2646 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 091 DEG 112 KT
G. 006 DEG 26 NM
H. EXTRAP 945 MB
I. 09 C/ 3053 M
J. 18 C/ 3053 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 45
N. 12345/7
O. 1 /1 NM
P. NOAA3 0506A FRANCES OB 24
MAX FL WIND 118 KT S QUAD 2122Z
HEIGHT EXTRAP FROM 30 METERS ABOVE SFC
WHERE LAST HEIGHT REPORTED.

;


This is the vortex message. Not updated since 2117Z on the 30th. If my math is correct thats about 2pm central time. It has the pressure at 945 mb which didn't update until the 8pm AST advisory. Wonder why it missed the 5pm? Then again why hasn't it updated in 10 hours? Perhaps a hunter hasn't been out since earlier in the day. I mean it is still 4 days away so its not mission critical that a hunter investigate all day long.

Then again maybe they just haven't updated the website.

Im right in the middle of the forecated track, im not too worried about it. If it looks like we are gonna get nailed Ill be getting out of her way, probaly have to make the call by Thursday before the roads get too jammed with evacuees. As long as I got my essentials(surfboard, pets, car, ect..) I could careless about loosing the other stuff, it is nature and nothing I can do about it.

This being a conspiracy related site I have noticed some odd fluctiations around the eye. Posted are two satellite loops showing the water vapor, one close up and the other far out but with a longer time frame from start to finish. It looks to me that someone may be trying to "seed" the storm in an attemp to weaken it. Project Storm Fury in the 60s to 70s tried this and gave up over lawsuits and lack of funding. There is a product called dyno-gel that is supposed to cause clouds to dissipate and claimed by it creators if used on a large scale attack of a hurricane it would weaken it. Dyno-gel info
Satellite links:
Close up
Wide View

Looking at the satellite loops there are sporatic dry spots neat the center that quickly dissapear and reappear, this does not appear to be the eye of the storm trying to take shape, a storm the low pressure thats been reported should have no problem keeping a somewhat symetrical eye AND those dry spots appear away from the eye/eyewall at times making those patches of dryness seem unnatural.

If not the government you gotta think some insurance companies would fork over the $$ to try this in hopes of keeping their liability to damages down.

Those who promote this product claim there is "no downside" and it is safe for the enviroment, I have to differ. Dumping tons of a foreign chemical into the enviroment will have to have some effect at the least on the ecosystem. NOt to mention that it is directly messing with the weather and chaos theory rules in this arena so weaking these things can and will disrupt the balance of weather masses and could in the longrun result in more chaotic weather events.

More links on Dyn-o-gel
www.columbusalive.com...
www.earthisland.org... ageID=177&subSiteID=44
www.business2.com...

What you see in the loops is absolutely normal for a storm that isn't in absolutely perfect conditions. I have followed these things for a very long time and there is nothing abnormal about it.

On the Dyno Gel crystals that stuff quite honestly is a joke. I read a report on that a year or two ago when they supposedly conducted a experiment off of the coast of florida and the cell was observed to have disipated. As a former resident of Florida I have seen many off shore storms fall apart in odd ways. None of which was because of crystals being dumped into a storm. They lose their energy (and fast at times) and they fall apart. I've seen a storm off the coast where it looked like the bottom was missing. Just the anvil part of the cell remained. Think about the size of a single cell compared to a plane.

If a storm was only 2 miles x 2 miles and could dump only 1 inch of rain it would dump 70 million gallons of water (2 miles squared is just over 11.5 million square feet or 16 billion square inches. 1 inch of rain turns that into cubic inches. 231 cubic inches in a gallon.) Even IF the Dyno Gel had an absorbtion ratio of 1000 to 1 it would require 70,000 gallons of this material. This equates to just under 9400 cubic feet. Roughly 1/3rd the interior of a boeing 747. And we are talking a very generous 1000 to 1 ratio and a very small storm dumping only 1 inch over a 2 x 2 mile area. Just isn't possible.

Edit: I notice one of the link claims a 2000 to 1 ratio in weight. But thats not whats important. Volume is what is important. Lets face it foam is very light compared to water. What could a cubic foot of water weight compared to a cubic foot of foam? It doesn't matter. A cubic foot of water weights over 60 lbs.

The 70 million galls of water the tiny storm would drop would weigh 583,100,000 lbs. With the 2000 to 1 weight ratio this place brags about you'd still need 291,500 lbs of this material. Thats 132,000 kg which exceeds the cargo capacity of a boeing 747 cargo plane.

Physically impossible to dry up a tiny cell let alone influence a hurricane.

[edit on 8/31/2004 by Indy]

Gotta give something to the conspiracy theories!

This storm is really bothering me, not only is it gonna slam us and probaly destroy the house I grew in(2 blocks from the beach, it's a gonner) the track keeps it out of our swell window(the Bahamas will block the wave action) so in we arent going to get much in the way of groundswell until it is close enough to feel the winds. By then ill be long gone, not sure where, im thinking south because the winds will be offshore and favorable for surfing. Of course this can all change with a little wooble north or south.

Here is the part that makes forecasting a hurricane so difficult of not impossible.

external image

Just earlier the models were pretty much in agreement on the path of the storm. The comments by the forecast from the NHC indicated he expected a shift west with the next run. Instead of getting that shift there seems to be a split in the models. I'm interested in hearing their take on this. Is this a new trend with a shift back east or is this an anomally in the latest run that will correct itself with the 8am run? Time will tell.

Liking this a bit better, hope this trend continues (the models shifting more east) since there are still enough days for this to miss us if it does. The problem is, what is the deal with the computer models not necessarily being updated as frequently as the forecasts. If u looked at the legend yesterday, you see that some of them were had not been updated from the previous day (this was in the afternoon).


The 5 day forecast map still looks too close for comfort. Acutally it's looking like Orlando could get hit again on this one while it crosses the state (if it does that) from the opposite direction of Charley. This would just be to weird, especially considering the time frame.

Apparently the NHC isnt putting much faith in that wild flip flop. The 5am discussion talks about how the east most path became the west most and the west most became the east most path. It sounds as if they expect this to correct itself.

Here is the update with 3 models updating at 2am.


external image

08-31-2004 8am AST Intermediate Advisory

Hurricane Frances has been upgraded to a category 4 storm once again with sustained winds at 135mph.

"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

Source: www.nhc.noaa.gov...