2012 elections around the world that will matter , page 1

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Topic started on 28-9-2011 @ 12:59 PM by Vitchilo

I thought of doing a thread about elections around the world... a lot of them will be important and might affect world events.

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January 14, 2012. Taiwanese election.

Candidates :
Ma Ying-jeou, the one in power right now, from the Kuomintang party.

Tsai Ing-wen, from the Democratic Progressive Party.

Ma Ying-jeou supports closer links with China and Tsai Ing-wen is more for independance, but in one of her last interview, she said that her party became more moderate and wanted good relations with China.

Last time there was an election in Taiwan, China was on full alert and ready to attack Taiwan if the democratic progressive party (aka independents) won. (according to US-SKorean intelligence)

So this will be very interesting to watch. Right now, both parties are equal in the polls.

Hopefully Obama has enough brains to put a carrier strike group near Taiwan during the election in case China has naughty thoughts.

Of course if the ``anti-China`` wins, it could lead to war. Or at least it will create a bunch of crisis between Taiwan-US-China. Every time in the past that the nationalist party has won, there were lots of trouble.

I don't know who will win, it depends on what China does in the next few months and the state of the world economy. I would edge towards the anti-China party.
Republic of China presidential election, 2012
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March 4, 2012. Russian election.

Candidates :
Vladimir Putin of the United Russia party.

Gennady Zyuganov from the Communist Party.

Dmitry Medvedev wanted to run but he said he wouldn't run against Putin or it could create problems.

Medvedev could/will probably be the prime minister of Russia... so it'll be just Putin and Medvedev switching places.

I don't expect much to change, but Putin is more aggressive than Medvedev.
Russian presidential election, 2012
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March-April 2012. Egyptian election.

Candidates :
Mohamed ElBaradei, ex-director of the IAEA, he's with the National Association For Change. He supports Iran nuclear program, which he says is legal, said before the Iraq war that there wasn't any WMDs in Iraq. Wants to open the Egypt-Gaza border and said that Israel, with their nukes was the biggest threat to the middle-east.

Amr Moussa, Egypt's ambassador to many countries. Leading in the polls. Criticized Israeli policies towards Gaza and the West Bank. Criticized US double standards policies when it comes to Israel-Iran nuclear programs. Criticized western countries when they didn't recognize Palestinian elections which brought Hamas to power. Supports opening Gaza-Egypt border.

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, expelled of the Muslim Brotherhood for running in the election. Popular with the youth.

Ahmed Shafik : Commander of the Egyptian Air Force from 1996 to 2002. During the 1973 war, he shot down 2 Israeli planes (which is pretty good considering Israel lost 102 aircrafts during the whole war).

Omar Suleiman : Human rights groups tied Suleiman’s career to a regime marked by widespread human rights abuses and he's seen as Mubarak 2.

The latest polls point heavily toward Amr Moussa. He has 44% in the polls, compared to 12% for Ahmed Shafik, 9% for Omar Suleiman, 6% for Ayman Nour, 4% for El Baradei and 2% for Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

The danger with this of course is a war with Israel/arming of extremists in Gaza.

So of course I'm gonna go with Amr Moussa.

Egyptian presidential election, 2012
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March 2012. Chinese ``elections``.

It's not really an ``election``... it's the politburo who decides who gets in power. There's a thug of war right now between the Chinese elite.

Candidates :
Xi Jinping. Member of ``Shanghai Clique``, more focusing on high gdp and economic development. Basically more right wing. More aggressive.

Li Keqiang. Hu Jintao (current Chinese president) protege. He was in the Chinese communist youth league. Concerned about inequalities of poor-rich. Basically more left wing. More like current Chinese president, moderate.

Depends on who wins the thug of war. My edge would go to Xi Jinping. The elite never likes to give money to the poor, even if they are communists.

So if Xi Jinping goes in, I would expect a harsher Chinese foreign policy, more aggressive. And hopefully some of the comments I heard and some of the stuff I read written by Xi Jinping was for the domestic propaganda, because if not, it's gonna get bumpy.

Whoever is chosen will only get into power in early 2013.
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April 2012. South Korean parliamentary election. December 2012. South Korean presidential election.

Candidates :
Grand National Party (GNP). Conservatives. Hold power. More and more young people supports it following North Korea's provocations. They are between moderate and hardliner against North Korea. Park Geun-Hye likely main candidate for 2012. She's the daughter of former dictator-president Park Chung-Hee.

Democratic Party (DP). Progressives. Largest opposition. Was in power from 2004-2008. Scored a big win in 2010 local elections. Anti-Americanism, pro-North Korea, pro-Korean unification and nationalists.

Of course what's at stake here is the South Korea-North Korea relation. Presence of US troops on South Korean soil. Relations with Japan. Relations with China.

I think who will get elected depends on what North Korea and China will do, perhaps even what Japan will do, in the next few months.

But I give my edge to the DP.

Elections in South Korea
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Continued :

edit on 28-9-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 01:01 PM by Vitchilo

April 22, 2012. French election.

Candidates :
Nicolas Sarkozy from the Union For A Popular Movement (UMP)

A candidate that will be chosen on October 9 from the Socialist Party (PS).

Marine Le Pen (daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen) from the National Front (FN).

It's important to note that earlier this week, there were elections for the senate, and Nicolas Sarkozy's party got his butt kicked. For the first time since the end of WW2, the socialists control the senate. So if that's any indication, the Socialists will win in 2012.

Hopefully the FN doesn't get a lot of votes, they are very racist and very right wing. Yes, more than republicans.

I think the Socialists will win.

It might cause some trouble since they are socialists... they will give lots of money to the people of France, too much money, that will bankrupt them, just like it did Greece. They wanted to give more money to Greece...they want to put a tax on banks.

The FN didn't want to give any money to Greece. (now you know why they would get votes, they have some good policies but are way too racist IMO)

French presidential election, 2012
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July 1, 2012. Mexican election.

It will be a general election, new president and new representatives in the senate and Chamber Of Deputies.

Candidates :
A number of candidates from the National Action Party (PAN) party. Could be Josefina Vázquez Mota.

Enrique Peña Nieto from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)

Marcelo Ebrard from the Party Of The Democratic Revolution (PRD).

These are the main candidates, but it could change.

The two main parties are the PAN (which defeated the PRI in 2000, after 70 years of rule) and the PRI. Because of all the killings of the drug war and the economy, people are kinda sick of the PAN and the PRI is in advance in the polls.

The favorite for now is PRI candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto. Since Brazil and Argentina elected women in the last year, Josefina Vázquez Mota could have good chances.

Enrique Peña Nieto is the strongest candidate and likely to win.

I don't think much will change. Maybe a stronger fight against the cartels.

Mexican general election, 2012
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October 28, 2012. Ukrainian election.

Candidates :
Viktor Yanukovych from the Party Of Regions (PoR).

Yulia Tymoshenko from the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT)

The against all/not going to vote crowd (30% of Ukrainians)

As always, in Ukraine, it's between the ``pro-Russia`` crowd (mostly eastern Ukraine) and the pro-west/anti-Russia crowd (western Ukraine).

The Party of Regions have a slight lead for now, they are in power and are independant/pro-Russia. The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc is the ``orange revolution`` (some say CIA-backed) group which of course are anti-Russia.

The danger in all this is if the anti-Russia bloc wins and they screw with Russia by arming crazy Saakasvilli in Georgia or try to get into NATO (even if that would be very hard to do). Russia was born in Ukraine, so they think Ukraine really should be under the control of Russia or at least heavily influenced by it.

My edge is to the PoR keeping the power. Of course if the economy gets worse (which it will) then the Yulia Bloc could win.

Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2012
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November 6, 2012. American election.

You all know about this one.

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 01:39 PM by Konstantinos

Very interesting, thanks for the sumarries
S&F for you.

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 01:39 PM by Evola

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Medvedev could/will probably be the prime minister of Russia... so it'll be just Putin and Medvedev switching places.

Over and over again, in till one of them dies, or Putin seizes power.

Hopefully the FN doesn't get a lot of votes, they are very racist

And?

Is the desire to preserve your culture and racial composition a bad thing? Does a Brown Mohammedan from some Arab or African backwater nation feel any personal connection to french culture or history? Can we truly call him a Frenchmen?

and very right wing.

Once again, What's wrong with that?

Yes, more than republicans.

I wish the Republicans were Nationalistic and Far-right.

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 01:54 PM by Konstantinos

Originally posted by Evola

Is the desire to preserve your culture and racial composition a bad thing? Does a Brown Mohammedan from some Arab or African backwater nation feel any personal connection to french culture or history? Can we truly call him a Frenchmen?

Evidently you're a fan of fascism, so I will forego pointing out it's obvious failures throughout the world.
However I find it clinically fascinating that you believe there is nothing wrong with racism.
Unless you're native Ameirican you should, by your own logic, feel no connection to America yourself.
Generalizing an entire people based on their race is in my opinion backwards and counter-productive in all aspects of society.
People should be praised/condemned based on their own PERSONAL attributes, not their race or nationality.

edit on 28-9-2011 by Konstantinos because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 02:26 PM by Evola

Originally posted by Konstantinos
Evidently you're a fan of fascism

Yes, but I am not one.

Unless you're native Indian my friend, you should, by your own logic, feel no connection to America yourself.

That's really bad logic.

There’s a difference between a landmass and a nation.

Nation = a peoples shared history, culture, traditions, language, racial composition.

Generalizing an entire people based on their race is in my opinion backwards and counter-productive in all aspects of society.
People should be praised/condemned based on their own PERSONAL attributes, not their race or nationality.
edit on 28-9-2011 by Konstantinos because: (no reason given)

Generalization is an useful tool for dealing with large amounts of information.

Using generalization we could determine that a Arab living in the Middle East is more likely to be a Mohammedan or speak Arabic than one living in a western nation.

edit on 28-9-2011 by Evola because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 03:03 PM by Konstantinos

Originally posted by Evola

Generalization is an useful tool for dealing with large amounts of information.

Using generalization we could determine that a Arab living in the Middle East is more likely to be a Mohammedan or speak Arabic than one living in a western nation.

You really believe that huh?
I suppose then that Thierry Henry for example, can't be considered a Frenchman becuase his roots are African?

Did you also know that there are approcimately 1.5 Million Arab Christians in the middle-east?
I'm sure some of them would have a problem with you classifying them as "Mohammedans" simply because their complexion is darker than yours and because they speak Arabic...

One could also generalize that people from MO are constantly putting R's and A's where they dont belong like saying "warsh" your clothes, or highway "farty" instead of forty.... just an example of erroneous generalization...

reply posted on 28-9-2011 @ 03:24 PM by Evola

Originally posted by Konstantinos
I suppose then that Thierry Henry for example, can't be considered a Frenchman becuase his roots are African?

Assuming he has adopted French culture he could be considered an assimilated alien, but he is not Frenchman.

Did you also know that there are approcimately 1.5 Million Arab Christians in the middle-east?

Yes, I am very aware that are Christians living in the Middle-East. However, there are more Mohammedans living in the Middle-East than there are Christians.

I'm sure some of them would have a problem with you classifying them as "Mohammedans" simply because their complexion is darker than yours and because they speak Arabic...

I didn't say they were all Mohammedans. I said they were more likely to be Mohammedans, which is correct.

One could also generalize that people from MO are constantly putting R's and A's where they dont belong like saying "warsh" your clothes, or highway "farty" instead of forty.

It is quite common to say "warsh" in Missouri. I haven't heard anyone say farty instead of forty though.

edit on 28-9-2011 by Evola because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 16-10-2011 @ 04:34 AM by Vitchilo

Apparently, Egyptian elections will take place in November 2011 instead of January 2012... it seems the people put enough pressure on the military dictatorship for that to happen.

First round should be on November 28. It will be the elections for the lowest body of parliament. It will be in 3 stages... November 28, December 14 and January 3 for different areas.

The upper body election will be on January 29 2012.

The presidential elections will be no earlier than September 2012.

As for China, it seems I had the timing wrong too.

China's effective change in leadership will be in March 2013. The politburo will meet in the summer of 2012 to decide who will be the next leaders of China... their decision will be announced between august and october 2012.

edit on 16-10-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 18-10-2011 @ 12:43 AM by Vitchilo

Walker's World: France's next leader?

For the next six months French President Nicolas Sarkozy will be looking over his shoulder at the man who has the best chance to replace him in next year's elections, Francois Hollande, who Sunday won the Socialist Party primary with a convincing 57 percent of the vote.

François Hollande has won the Socialist primaries. So he'll likely be the next president of France. But IMO he's a scumbag...

Hollande is also a passionate pro-European, who organized the Socialist Party's "yes" vote in the national referendum on the European Union's Lisbon Treaty.

IMO if the European situation becomes worse (which it will, France is about to get downgraded and Greece implode) the FRONT NATIONAL could win A LOT of votes... it'll be a FN vs Sarkozy in second round of election... and then we shall see. Probably a Sarkozy win...

France is irritated by and bored with Sarkozy so Hollande is now the front-runner with a 20-point lead in the polls, which will certainly not last.

If he becomes president, it will likely be a case of Sarkozy losing rather than Hollande winning. But one thing seems certain, that French policy won't greatly change.

edit on 18-10-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 3-12-2011 @ 08:18 AM by Vitchilo

So first results of the Egyptian election...

Al-Jazeera: Islamist parties won 60 percent of vote in Egyptian election (Haaretz)

Not good news.

And Russia has parliamentary elections on Sunday.

Russia parliament elections: How the parties line up

Russians go to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election which is expected to deliver a much reduced majority for the ruling United Russia party.

Presidential election on March 4...

reply posted on 4-12-2011 @ 07:58 PM by Vitchilo

With more than 67 percent of the ballots counted, the ruling United Russia party had picked up nearly half (49.93 percent) – a far cry from the commanding two-thirds constitutional majority the party has held in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, for the past four years, according to the official count.

If born out by the full vote count, the result would mark a major electoral setback for the political party that Putin leads and that has been the dominant political organization in Russia for much of the past decade.

The Communist Party (KPRF) has 19.45 percent, the moderate A Just Russia got 12.97 percent and the nationalist Liberal Democrats (LDPR), 11.91 percent. Voter turnout was above 50 percent, according to preliminary results.

Well well well... this is big... But still, I don't think any candidate has any chance in the presidential election against Putin. But it will force the party of Putin, United Russia, to make concessions.

Also there's chances that there will be elections in Israel in 2012...

Primaries for the Likud party are scheduled for January 31, 2012... I doubt that Netanyahu will get kicked out as party leader, but you never know.

edit on 4-12-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 26-12-2011 @ 11:44 PM by Vitchilo

Latest polls for Taiwan... The nationalists are WINNING....

2012 ELECTIONS: Predictions diverge on Tsai’s chances

Two attempts to predict the Jan. 14 presidential election yesterday showed very different results, with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) leading President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by 7.4 percentage points in one survey and trailing him by 0.4 percentage points in the other.

Even if in the second poll he's just losing by 0.4%... that's basically the margin error... If this continues, the nationalists are gonna win...

Maybe China will pull something a few days before the election to sway it toward the pro-China party... we'll see.

reply posted on 31-12-2011 @ 07:03 AM by Vitchilo

Parliamentary elections in Iran in March...

Iran starts registering candidates for March parliamentary elections; reformists stay out

Iran on Saturday began registering potential candidates for March parliamentary elections, a vote that will be especially hard fought between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad within the conservative camp.

The country’s major reformist groups are staying out of the race, claiming that basic requirements for free and fair elections have not been met.

For the March elections, the Interior Ministry is in charge of the weeklong registration process. All Iranian nationals between 30 and 75 years of age who hold a master’s degree and have “proven themselves to be loyal” to Khamenei are allowed to run. Once submitted, candidacies have to be approved by the hard-line constitutional watchdog known as the Guardian Council.

reply posted on 12-1-2012 @ 01:32 PM by Vitchilo

Putin 'too busy' for presidential election debates

Vladimir Putin will not take part in Russian presidential election debates because of his duties as prime minister, his spokesman has announced.

Funny guy that Putin.

reply posted on 26-1-2012 @ 06:25 AM by Vitchilo

Update on Russia's elections :
Prokhorov Put On Presidential Ballot

The Central Elections Commission on Wednesday officially registered billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov as a candidate for the March 4 presidential election, RIA-Novosti reported.

As an independent candidate, Prokhorov had to submit more than 2 million signatures from supporters to be included on the ballot.

Prokhorov is the fifth candidate to qualify for the ballot, joining Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Gennady Zyuganov of the Communist Party, Sergei Mironov of the A Just Russia party and Vladimir Zhirinovsky of the Liberal Democratic Party.

5 ways race. Hopefully Putin doesn't get elected.

reply posted on 28-2-2012 @ 05:59 PM by Vitchilo

Friday : Iranian election...

Riots are expected... will this lead to war...

Sunday : Russian election.

Putin expected to win. Lots of protests expected.

Egypt :

Egypt: Nominations for president to begin March 1 and last for entire month (AP)

Egypt to select constitutional panel on March 3 (AP)

reply posted on 1-4-2012 @ 03:11 AM by seudonymous

Change is in the air in Burma. Will be interesting to see how the superpowers on either side of Burma react, for decades its been a barrier between china and India...

Burmese election irregularities

Aung San Suu Kyi has said Burma's elections this weekend will be neither free nor fair because of widespread irregularities, but vowed to press forward with her candidacy for the sake of the country.

According to her party, in the constituency that Aung San Suu Kyi is contesting – Kawhmu, close to Rangoon – the names of hundreds of dead persons are said to be on the electoral roll while those of more than 1,300 eligible voters are missing. Nonetheless, she vowed to press forward with her candidacy for the sake of the country and said she did "not at all regret having taken part in [the elections]".

She said her campaigning had energized her by demonstrating that the Burmese population had been "quick to wake up" after "decades of quiescence". But she added: "This country can very well survive without me. I have found that the people have the right spirit to survive. They have the guts and they have the commitment.

I wonder if the corruption is being exasperated by outside influence... I really hope this doesn't end badly for Aung San Suu Kyi...

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