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Sunspot 1302 Continues to Turn Toward Earth

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posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 10:36 AM
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Sunspot 1302 Continues to Turn Toward Earth


www.sciencedaily.com

A strong-to-severe (Kp=8) geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at approximately 8:15a.m. EDT (12:15 UT) on Sept. 26. The Goddard Space Weather Lab reported a strong compression of Earth's magnetosphere. Simulations indicate that solar wind plasma has penetrated close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 9am.
(visit the link for the full news article)




posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 10:36 AM
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This particularly large sunspot is responsible for noteworthy Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) ....


Sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares (X1.4 on Sept. 22 and X1.9 on Sept. 24th). Each of the dark cores in this image from SDO is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot's magnetic field is currently crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into larger eruptions as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.




I predict officially - This is something many will worry about.

At the very least, we should bear in mind over the next few days, that if our wireless, and satellite services are below-par, there may be an extraterrestrial reason.... no, not aliens.

Our Sun remains the most influential extraterrestrial force we have no choice but to contend with.


Since the X1.9-flare, active region (AR) 1302 has unleashed M8.6 and M7.4 flares on Sept. 24 and an M8.8 flare early on Sept. 25. None of the blasts have been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. AR1302 is growing and shows no immediate signs of quieting down.


www.sciencedaily.com
(visit the link for the full news article)
edit on 27-9-2011 by Maxmars because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 10:41 AM
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reply to post by Maxmars
 


Excellent update and overview. Thank you. I am watching this one - shutting down my computer instead of putting it to sleep, and warning friends with "mental health" issues about the potential effects.

S&F&



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 10:42 AM
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please don't attack me, as I do not know much about CME's but can they cause EMP's?



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 10:55 AM
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reply to post by 4thhorsemen
 


I am not that kind of member. Your question seems like a good one....

I asked the same question. Last year I found this quote from a blogger (I cant remember where)

"....Solar Flares cause Electromagnetic Pulse (EMPs) and EMPs can cause serious damage to the electrical power grid and literally fry computer components at power stations, in cars, and even in airplanes."

But I remained unconvinced because that was the total of the explanation. A little more digging and I found;


Paraphrased Excerpt from Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security:

"One example of a physical threat is an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) event. An EMP may also be a naturally-occurring event caused by solar flares and storms disrupting the Earth’s magnetic field. A solar storm, according to an article in Scientific American, could “severely damage satellites, disable radio communications, and cause continent-wide electrical black-outs that would require weeks or longer to recover from."

** end of testimony **

An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is defined as a burst of electromagnetic radiation resulting from a suddenly fluctuating magnetic field. The resulting electric and magnetic fields may couple with electrical/electronic systems to produce damaging current and voltage surges.


And still, something tells me this is not necessarily the whole picture.

The implication some people seem to make is that the solar flare and coronal mass eject events can lead to EMP-like results. Perhaps they can... but when we see the government's acce[pted list of categories of events it doesn't seem to include that possibility.


NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms:

G5: Some power grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps. HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for days at a time. Satellite navigation may be degraded for days; low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours. Auroras seen at low latitudes.

G4: Possible widespread power system voltage control problems; protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. HF radio propagation sporadic. Satellite navigation degraded for hours. Low-frequency radio navigation disrupted. Auroras seen at mid-to-low latitudes.

G3: Power system voltage corrections may be required; false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur. HF radio may be intermittent. Aurora has been seen as mid-latitudes.

G2: High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Auroras visible at high-to-mid-latitudes.

G1: Possible weak power grid fluctuations. Migratory animals affected. Auroras commonly visible at high latitudes.

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Solar Radiation Storms:

S5: Radiation risk in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes. Satellites may be rendered useless. Permanent damage to solar panels possible. Complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible in polar regions. GPS/radio-navigation extremely unreliable.

S4: Radiation risk in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes. Degradation of satellite and solar panel efficiency. Blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions. Increased GPS/radio-navigation errors.

S3: Radiation risk in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes. Sporadic satellite interference. Degradation of HF radio propagation in polar regions. GPS/radio-navigation errors likely.

S2: May be high-flying aircraft radiation risk at high latitudes. Infrequent satellite single-event upsets possible. Small effects on HF propagation and GPS/radio-navigation.

S1: No biological concerns. No satellite concerns. May be occasional HF radio static.

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackouts:

R5: Complete HF (high frequency) radio blackout on sunlit side of the Earth for periods lasing several hours. GPS/radio-navigation outages planet-wide.

R4: HF communications blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. Minor GPS/radio-navigation disruptions.

R3: Wide area blackout of HF communications for periods of approximately an hour on sunlit side of Earth. GPS/radio-navigation degradation.

R2: Limited HF blackouts. Limited GPS/radio-navigation degradation.

R1: Minor degradation of HF communications. Minor GPS/radio-navigation degradation for brief periods.


Perhaps these scales need to be updated. Of course, there is no doubt we shall see......

But I think the short answer to your question is "probably not"... although its a great way to invoke fear, wouldn't you say?


edit on 27-9-2011 by Maxmars because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 10:58 AM
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These sun spots were big enough for one member to have seen them through binoculars (i know... don't ask) and come running to his computer to say there were 3 or 4 planets in front of the sun


I'll add the link to the thread here
edit on 27-9-2011 by Lulzaroonie because: adding link



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:10 AM
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reply to post by Lulzaroonie
 


Trust a person who is so catastrophically intellectual as to observe the sun through binoculars, to mistake a sunspot or two for a series of undiscovered planetary bodies!

But in all seriousness, I think of all the concerns about natural disasters on a world wide scale, the concern over a massive solar flare wiping our electrical devices out , is perhaps the most warranted, and the most troublesome.

Of course quakes and tsunami are more physically damaging in terms of thier capacity to cause enormous damage over very little time , but a shut down of all power fed devices would mean the deaths of virtualy everyone in any ICU facility , anywhere, the shut down of all computers, controllers, substations, power plants (better hope the backups for nuclear plants are proof against these flares) cars, trucks, planes, phones, networks of every type and size, everything down to your digital watch.

Such a complete infrastructural collapse would be more cataclysmic than most folks care to imagine, but its a very real possibility. It might not be today, it might not be tomorrow, but its pretty much the biggest risk to our way of life as it stands at the moment. More of a sure bet than nuclear war in any case!



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:18 AM
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reply to post by TrueBrit
 


Lol I know.


I am wondering since CMEs are becoming stronger and more frequent (or so I have come to believe, please correct me otherwise), whether there are any precautions in place, or any plans to overcome issues such as loss of power to critical areas to prevent life loss etc. I presume back up generators in hospitals would be useless at that point?
Since the last one left something like 11 million people without power, how was this dealt with?



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:24 AM
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reply to post by Maxmars
 


A strong-to-severe (Kp=8) geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at approximately 8:15a.m. EDT (12:15 UT) on Sept. 26.


Alex Jones was speaking worridly about that, few minutes ago on his show. This morning when I got up and had coffee, around 8am I think, my power/lights kept fluxing off/on. Kept my fingers crossed I was afraid an outage would occurr, but as long as this solar storm continues, I'm 'not out of the woods' yet!
Scary stuff.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:27 AM
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reply to post by Lulzaroonie
 


Unfortunately for us, if there is an induced electrical catastrophe such as the one we are theorizing, even off-line (powered down) system may be vulnerable. So, it is possible that as all the emergency generators in the world are engaged, we may find they are not working as planned. In mission critical scenarios, like hospitals, and air traffic control, ground traffic systems, rail lines, these could all be rendered superfluous.

There is a technology to create EMP-proof circuitry, shielded or otherwise protected systems; but I suspect only military systems may employ them. Also, as far as I know, the technology is only applied to control circuitry and smaller-scale devices. I only know of one company that makes this kind of device (EMP-proof) and I have no idea if they distribute the products to anyone but military and government clients.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:36 AM
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reply to post by Lulzaroonie
 


Well thats a damned good question . But the trouble is the sort of damage that something like this would do. You see the way I understand it, the vast majority of our power infrastructure is already sheilded against physical harm, but the way the most serious class of flares do thier damage, means physical sheilding is useless, as is having the device you are trying to protect shut down. Car batteries for example will probably not fare too well , and neither will things like generators (unless they happen to be a fair bit below ground, and not attatched to a shorting electrical grid).

Most anything which connects to the grid will be either screwed beyond repair, or incapable of getting enough power to run it, and so far as I can tell, governments have only really started paying attention to this in the last few years. The threat has been real , present , ang getting even bigger every year for decades now, as our lifestyles become increasingly tech dependant, but the solutions have not come on at the same pace.

The other problem is that as technology has become more complex, more subtle, and more powerful, the systems which run it have had to deal with increased demand and there fore increased capacity. The more capacity in a system, wether it be the internal workings of an individual computer, or the entire grid as a whole, the more risk it is exposed to from serious electromagnetic disturbances.

If anything, all the advances we have made as a planet in the last twenty years have made us LESS able to protect our systems from this threat, than they were back in the eighties, not more able. An odd paradox to be sure.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:37 AM
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reply to post by Maxmars
 

Your prediction is becoming a long shot. As of yesterday:

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels on day one (27 September). Low to moderate levels are expected on day two (28 September) and predominantly low levels are expected on day three (29 September). Region 1302 remains the most active Region on the disk but has only produced one M-class event over the past 24 hours.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

The magnetic configuration of region 1302 has become more stable.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Activity has been decreasing.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:37 AM
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reply to post by Maxmars
 


"There is a technology to create EMP-proof circuitry, shielded "

i guess nuclear power plants would be included in that right?


ooopppss,,

wrench my ass.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:40 AM
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reply to post by Phage
 


I am happy to be wrong. Although I was more inclined towards the common crowd of people in media who love to stoke the fires of fear.

The sunspot itself is the center of the matter, and as it may be approaching the point where its "facing the earth" it will also pass by in time, so I wonder how likely it is that 1302 will remain active long enough for another go-around?

Peace.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:44 AM
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reply to post by BobAthome
 


Actually nothing I know of will stop the reactivity of fissionables... so if we are inclined to worry about such things, imagine hundreds of reactors in "Fukushima" mode.... except we couldn't muster even firefighters with hoses to attempt to cool the reactors that suddenly have no power to their pumping systems......

Good thing this seems to be waning .... I wouldn't want to experience that level of disaster....
edit on 27-9-2011 by Maxmars because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 11:54 AM
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reply to post by Maxmars
 

Solar flares do not produce EMPs. The most powerful solar flare ever recorded occurred on November 4, 2003. It was an X28+. We all remember what a disaster that was.

Solar flares can cause problems for communications but other than that they have no effect on Earth's surface. They can cause problems for satellites but they have no effect on Earth's surface.



spaceweather.com...



edit on 9/27/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 12:02 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


I agree they do not cause EMPs.... unfortunately they still do damage though; let's hope we are lucky enough to avoid any such problems in the future; but it's bound to happen again eventually... hopefully by then we'll have figured out how to minimize the damage potential.



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 12:09 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


Au contraire, mon ami...
NASA tends to disagree with you and in fact made quite a fuss about just this topic earlier this year -
Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

I like your logical thinking, Phage, but you tend towards the 'head under the duvet" sources where everything is nice and nothing bad happens. Back in the real world, however, well, just read the article....



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 12:10 PM
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We All better go to wall-mart and cosco to bulk up on water and whatnot lol
But it has potential to be catastrophic, i doubt it will be that severe but then again who am i besides a salesman lol



posted on Sep, 27 2011 @ 12:31 PM
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reply to post by Maxmars
 

Awesome, thanks for the info. Glad to see someone actually answering a question with some research, good stuff.



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