UARS : How big will the craters be?

There is a lot of talk about when and where this satellite will fall, but not much about how big of a dent it will make.

If any of you are really good at math and know how to calculate potential impact crater sizes, please do so and share!
Let's assume the pieces hit land of an average density and composition..

Here is a list of the pieces of UARS that are expected to survive the descent to Earth.
(1) HGA gimbal and reten. (Titanium) 59 pounds impacting at 99 miles per hour

(4) Forward bulkhead fitting (Titanium) 55 pounds impacting at 177 miles per hour

(1) SSPP gimball (Titanium) 134 pounds impacting at 130 miles per hour

(1) SSPP structure (AL-2024-T8) 348 pounds impacting at 99 miles per hour

(4) MMS fuel tanks (Titanium) 11 pounds impacting at 59 miles per hour

(3) MMS MPS batteries (SSteel 304L) 101 pounds impacting at 146 miles per hour

(4) Reaction wheel rims (SSteel 304L) 4 pounds impacting at 240 miles per hour

(1) FSS housing (Beryllium) 7 pounds impacting at 175 miles per hour

(2) FHST bracket (Beryllium) 2 pounds impacting at 40 miles per hour

(2) G.F. abutment plate (Titanium) 4 pounds impacting at 30 miles per hour

(2) G.F. base plate (Titanium) 11 pounds impacting at 81 miles per hour

(1) G.F. extension (Titanium) 1 pound impacting at 47 miles per hour

I'm also wondering, about the larger pieces, how thick of a concrete wall could one penetrate? Or a steel wall? Or other materials? If a larger chunk hit a power plant could it potentially reach the core? Or are the concrete walls way to thick for that to happen?

reply to post by Artlicious


I don't think it be able to reach the core of a power plant. Too much concrete and lead plating.

Could definitely cause some damage where ever it hits tho...

reply to post by lZEROl


That's what I was thinking.. but for dooms sake..... It could damage vital systems..

reply to post by Artlicious


haha, yeah for dooms sake WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!

but seriously, I would think that it would start to burn up and break apart well before it reached the ground

There will be no craters.

The Earth and the solar system will be destroyed.

It is all right here in this thread:

FOX NEWS SAYS SO.

They seem to be pretty certain that all of those parts on that list will make impact.. I'm just wondering how big the hole will be.. That is if it hits the ground and not the ocean or a building.

I just found a site to calculate impact crater size:

www.lpl.arizona.edu...

I'm playing around with it now. But someone else here might be better at doing this than I am.

About the size of this crater:

reply to post by Phage


I'll have to wait until I get home to see that..

reply to post by Artlicious
Just having a quick go with rough parameters, it came back as this..

Using the Pi-scaled transient crater, the final crater is a Simple crater with a rim-to-rim diameter of 3.87 x 103 meters.
This impactor would strike the target with an energy of 2.93 x 1018 Joules (0.07 x 104 MegaTons).

Well hope that helps.

reply to post by foxhoundone

The highest impact object will hit the ground with kinetic energy of 153.38 kJ (a bit more than one ounce of TNT).
www.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


Seems abit odd to me that you are comparing that rocket launch in the video and its crater to something that will be falling from a much greater distance and at a greater velocity...not to mention the potential weight and size of each object. I have been on ATS for awhile now and have often wondered..what are your credentials Phage..as you always have something to offer to these sorts of threads. just curious

reply to post by findingtruthseeker

Did you read the numbers in the OP?
The impact speeds are given. Each object will attain it's own terminal velocity and no more. The rocket, being very well streamlined, was probably falling faster than any of the debris of the satellite will.

reply to post by Phage


Yes i read the numbers in the OP...i just have a hard time understanding how that video you posted is comparable to the weight and size of some of the expected parts to this sat. I'm not saying they won't be..i'm just curious why you think they will be similiar to that rockets little hole in the ground. Personally i feel like there is much ado about nothing regarding this sat, but none the less i am curious about it still. btw..thanks for the reply

reply to post by Phage
That being said Phage the rocket was empty of any propulsion and in effect it was an empty projectile (can) and crushed upon impact cushioning its self, IMO. UARS has some really heavy components 158kgs being the heaviest, thats if she breaks up according to NASA simulations,

reply to post by findingtruthseeker

The largest piece may make a crater a bit larger than that of the rocket. The rest of the pieces, no where near that size.

reply to post by foxhoundone

The question involved the debris produced by the simulations. The largest piece is an aluminum box which is predicted to impact with K.E. of 153.38 kJ. The amateur rocket could have produced that much energy since it was falling significantly faster than the box would.

Originally posted by findingtruthseeker
reply to post by Phage

 

what are your credentials Phage..

Black ops government operative would be my guess.

Tiny.

There are thousands of pieces of space junk orbiting Earth, and just as this isn't the first to fall to Earth and potentially cause a little big of damage, it won't be the last. Even if this thing was massive and could completely decimate an entire city, there would still be a 75% chance that it would land in the ocean anyway.

This is nothing, just your typical media fear-mongering nonsense.