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The US space agency (Nasa) says that its out-of-control climate satellite is expected to crash to Earth sometime on Friday evening (GMT).
Given that some 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by water, a splash-down for the debris seems most likely. But there remains a real possibility that some debris could fall on land.
UARS could land anywhere between 57 degrees north and 57 degrees south of the equator - most of the populated world.
The 1 in 3,200 risk to public safety is higher than the 1 in 10,000 limit that Nasa aims for.
Now first of all, this is the first time I have ever heard of a satellite taking more than a WEEK to crash on Earth
But other conditions could see the satellite stay in space for longer than anticipated.