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Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and it's gonna hit America.

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posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 02:44 AM
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reply to post by Observer99
 

Do you understand how odds work? I, and everyone else on the planet has 0.0000000000044643% chance of being injured or killed by debris from UARS. I have a 1 in 3,000 chance of being hit by lighting in my lifetime. I'll take my chances with the satellite.

What technology is used to maneuver a defunct satellite? What delta V would be required to move the satellite from an inclination of 57º to 90º? Never mind the fact that a polar orbit would pass over all populated areas of the planet, over the entire surface of the planet. I guess you don't understand orbital dynamics either.

No, that would not be my response. How dare you presume it would be? If the odds were 1:1 I would be outraged if the satellite were allowed to re-enter. But they aren't, are they?




posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 04:12 AM
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reply to post by Phage
 


Curse you math!

I shake my fist in the air at you, oh deviled logic!




posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 04:55 AM
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You've failed. Again.

By factoring in the number of humans on Earth, you have done exactly what I said. Acted like this wasn't a problem "because it won't hit you." The second you mentioned a 0.00000... probability you have failed the argument.

This satellite has a 1:3200 chance of injuring or killing someone. When you are arguing ethics IT DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER THAT SOMEONE IS YOU. Why is it OK with you that NASA is carelessly doing something that has a 1:3200 chance of injuring or killing some innocent, random person?

If I press a button that has a 1:3200 chance of injuring or killing a random human, that would also be OK with you? Or is NASA somehow above the law and above any ethics requirement in your eyes?
edit on 21-9-2011 by Observer99 because: edit



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 05:41 AM
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Then way I see it....lol...is it's a 50/50 chance. It either lands on someone, or it doesn.t.


If it lands on my house, I just don't want to be home. I heard that whoever puts it in the sky, has to pay for anything that it messes up and hits.



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 07:30 AM
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www.nasa.gov...


• No NASA or USG human casualty reentry risk limits existed when UARS
was designed, built, and launched.
• NASA, the USG, and some foreign space agencies now seek to limit human
casualty risks from reentering space objects to less than 1 in 10,000.....

Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200 NOT 32 000.


AND a big list of parts that will survive re-entry and impact. Now I'm not sure what that math is about, but its expected to impact a 500 mile radius wherever it lands.

And its LESS than 1 in 10 000, its 1 in 3200. Its a medium sized object.
edit on 21-9-2011 by Unity_99 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 08:19 AM
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"The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic"

to quote Stalin (if he actually said it and it wasn't just made up)

I'm quite certain that if one of us on here called Fox or CNN and told them that on Friday we'd be firing a bus-sized object into the atmosphere and that there was the possibility that it might kill someone when it did the Newton thing we would be having a knock at the door rather quickly from the boys in blue....

For your persual, here are a list of various odds which might put the 1:3200 into perspective. The fact that there's twice the chance of someone being hit by UARS than cutting them self shaving is scary indeed - Odds



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 09:18 AM
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Of course for any of you personally, you can reduce your likelihood of death by this satellite debris by almost 100 percent.

As the time range for reentery is narrowed, you can use a satellite tracking program/website to find when it's going to fly over your head (or not). It moves quickly, so it'll only be going over for a time span of a few minutes.
During those few minutes, stand on the downrange side of your house (or any decent sized building).
None of the chunks that are reentering will have enough energy to smash their way through an entire house.

eg: For those of you in New York, UARS will fly over the tip of Long Island (Montauk etc) at 04:09 on the morning of the 23rd. Dont be standing outside, just incase that is the particular orbit in which it reenters.

Note also that as the orbit lowers due to atmospheric drag, the orbital values change. Almost certainly the prediction I've given above will change to become completely wrong. You gotta keep up to date.

edit on 21-9-2011 by alfa1 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 09:38 AM
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Can anyone calculate the impact damage of a 300lb object at 42m/s?
Crater width, etc.
I want to know if I need to get a bigger umbrella....



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 09:38 AM
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Double post
My bad
edit on 21-9-2011 by Aestheteka because: Double post



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 09:58 AM
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Well I for one have been struck
by lightening so I think I will
be a little jittery until this thing
falls safely into the ocean.
Just hope no one is out
cruising on the water in the
wrong location at the time.



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 10:01 AM
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Originally posted by Aestheteka
Can anyone calculate the impact damage of a 300lb object at 42m/s?
Crater width, etc.
I want to know if I need to get a bigger umbrella....



I think it would be much like taking a motor car engine and throwing it off a very tall building.
Deadly if it hits you, but there wont be a 'crater' left in the ground of any significance.



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 10:10 AM
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wow. i don't know if any one remembers the show dead like me? the main character, george, became a grim reaper from being hit by the toilet seat from the mir station. i am going to be careful then this week. i have no desire in being a grim reaper!



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 10:26 AM
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reply to post by Observer99
 


Why is it so hard for some people to grasp probabilities?

You, or any other random person of your choosing, have a 1 in 21,440,000,000,000 chance of being hit. Maybe they should have put it that way to begin with...then, maybe all this nonsense could've been avoided.

Now...that's 1 in 21.44 trillion. There are only 6.7 billion people on the planet. If you'll notice, that's significantly less than 21.44 trillion. Therefore, the chance of any part of UARS hitting you (or anyone...don't think that "me" or "you" is any sort of restriction...it just means any single person on the planet) is practically non-existent.

As Phage has stated before, if 3200 UARS satellites were re-entering, then there would be 1 likely casualty.
And, I'll bet, as we get closer to the 23rd, the chance of someone being hit will decrease significantly. If you don't think 1:21,440,000,000,000 are acceptable odds, then just wait a day or two...that ratio will probably go to 0 soon enough.

In fact, when you stand on the floor, Quantum Mechanic says there is a non-zero probability that you will fall through it. Should we avoid standing on the floor?



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 10:30 AM
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Originally posted by Observer99
You've failed. Again.

By factoring in the number of humans on Earth, you have done exactly what I said. Acted like this wasn't a problem "because it won't hit you." The second you mentioned a 0.00000... probability you have failed the argument.

This satellite has a 1:3200 chance of injuring or killing someone. When you are arguing ethics IT DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER THAT SOMEONE IS YOU. Why is it OK with you that NASA is carelessly doing something that has a 1:3200 chance of injuring or killing some innocent, random person?

If I press a button that has a 1:3200 chance of injuring or killing a random human, that would also be OK with you? Or is NASA somehow above the law and above any ethics requirement in your eyes?
edit on 21-9-2011 by Observer99 because: edit


I have to ask....do you drive a car? Ride a motorcycle? Fly (or fly in, as a passenger) commercial or private aircraft? Do you smoke? Do you consume alcohol? If you answered 'yes' to any of the above, then, with all due respect, I label you a hypocrite. If you do any of those things, your behavior is placing peoples' lives at risk, with odds that, in some cases, are similar to the odds of being injured by debris from the UARS, and yet you dare wonder if NASA is "somehow above the law", or "above any ethics requirement"?

Every single thing we do in the course of everyday life places us, and the people around us, at risk. To give you an example, let's look at my boring, every-day morning. I take a shower. Harmless, right? Wrong. I use hot water for that shower, and when the water heater kicks on, I run the risk of blowing the entire apartment off the map (see Mythbusters for details). I get dressed (fairly harmless, unless my color choices hurt your retinas) and drive to the store (I'm on vacation this week, so I don't have to worry about work). Driving a heavy and complex machine at high speed on a crowded freeway is demonstrably dangerous. I have myriad opportunities to cause (or be involved in) an accident. I could go on, but the point should be clear. Everything from showering to space flight causes risk, and not all of that risk can ever be eliminated. All that can be done is to minimize the risks we take and / or create, and get on with life. The fact that we (or most of us) do get on with life doesn't make us "above the law", or unethical, or immoral. It makes us practical.



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 12:01 PM
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Anybody blame Elenin yet?
How bout the Aliens?
Nibiru?



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 12:02 PM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 12:30 PM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 12:36 PM
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I know this guy, a real jerk about his lawn.

I hope it lands there.



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 12:49 PM
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Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Planet teleX
 

The X-37B landed in December. It's not missing.



Phage,
The X-37B is still listed in orbit by the website Satellite Flybys off of Space Weather.com

www.spaceweather.com...

I printed it off Monday to watch the ISS fly over while I was off work. Alas, it was cloudy until today. It's always cloudy...



posted on Sep, 21 2011 @ 12:56 PM
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Originally posted by NightFlight
The X-37B is still listed in orbit...


Its my understanding that there are two of them.
The first one landed, like Phage said. The second one is in orbit, like you said.



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