Aircraft numbers to double in 20 years

Airbus's prediction on the BBC

Note that this for large aircraft - 100 seats plus - precisely that part of the aviation industry that makes contrails.

there are implications for pollution and potentially climate change from contrails as acknowledged by the IPCC report on aviation and the climate, and of course as aircraft numbers in crease one can expect het number of "chemtrail" reports to increase too......if that CT is still going.

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

i hope in 20 years we have a smarter way to travel
2nd line

It means there will be twice as much a need for jet fuel which will undoubtedly put a strain on an already crappy oil situation.

Either way it's going to be interesting to see if modern humanity even makes it that far.

I dont' see any hint of there being any better way to travel in 20 years - unless the USA takes up fast trains, which would be a major change.

I seriously doubt there's going to be anything else - no anti-gravity or other esoteric forms of propulsion are going to miraculously appear IMO.

As electric land transport gets more popular (either direct, hybrid or indirect such as hydrogen) oil-fuel demand may slacken off enough so it doesn't create any great strain at all.

Originally posted by iamhobo
It means there will be twice as much a need for jet fuel which will undoubtedly put a strain on an already crappy oil situation.

Either way it's going to be interesting to see if modern humanity even makes it that far.

we wont be around
this is just the human plan to ruin the planet after we become extinct
there will be planes flying around and nuclear plants
and lots of oil going in the ocean
just to let animals know that we were once the best

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

obviously it would be easy to make a green energy plane
but i think there are many options (many the public probably wouldnt know about)
magnetic powered or balanced
anti gravity tech
teleporting? haha who knows

Originally posted by UniverSoul
reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

 

obviously it would be easy to make a green energy plane

Source for such a bold claim?

Originally posted by UniverSoul
but i think there are many options (many the public probably wouldnt know about)

Like?

Originally posted by UniverSoul
magnetic powered or balanced

How would an aircraft be magnetically powered? I'm not understanding the balance part, since the airplane already has parts that use the air to balance.

Originally posted by UniverSoul
anti gravity tech
teleporting? haha who knows

What if either of those used electricity, generated by non-green means?

Just something to think about.

Aircraft numbers in service from 1991-2010 can be seen on page 14 of this report from Boeing - oddly enough it's roughly a doubling in 20 years!

Of course doubling again means 4 times as many a/c predicted in 2030 as weer in service in 1991 - 4 times as many contrails....4 times whatever CT is around by then....

Taking it for granted that we will be able to afford travel by air in 20 years.

The way things look to me at the moment we will be struggling to pay to travel to work, feed the kids and heat our homes.

Plenty of people aer getting richer all around the world - if you think you are hard done by consider living standards in India or China, where a combined 1/3rd of the world's population lives, and where much of the growth is expected to happen.

I have no problem with the concept that airfares will be cheaper, planes more efficient, an air travel more prevalent.