``El Hierro´´ Canary Islands-possible atlantic tsunami in case of eruption

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Aestheteka

 

Any data suggesting otherwise must therefore be taken as mere conjecture or bias theory.

There is no evidence of such a tsunami. Therefore it is conjecture that such a tsunami was created.

It is believed that the "tsunami" produced by the landslide must have been over 300 feet high, and its effects were probably felt on the American coast.

www.elhierro.travel...

For God's sake Phage, are you so caught up in your admittedly amateur (non-professional) "scientific" role here that you will take such a legalistic view as to completely discredit any post you may make in the future as purely attempting to debunk each and every learning opportunity you may have? Everyone knows that a landslide of such magnitude into the ocean will have an impact, and more times than not will create a tsunami.

Please, for your own sake, stop this.

reply to post by Aestheteka

The age provided by your source (the tourist agency) is contradicted by the evidence, indicating that your source is not using current information.

Evidence from the offshore island flank, in the form of a turbidite and debris flow linked to the debris avalanche, indicates an age of about 15 ka

geomar.geo.ub.es...

The number of tremors has decreased a great deal since the peak in August.
www.avcan.org...

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

Please, for your own sake, stop this.

Thank you for your concern.
But I am not the topic.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

Please, for your own sake, stop this.

Thank you for your concern.
But I am not the topic.

edit on 9/18/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

No you are not. But you certainly have not contributed much lately either. ATS is poorer for it.

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman
No you are not. But you certainly have not contributed much lately either. ATS is poorer for it.

Right.

ATS needs more people running in circles, screaming and shouting about disasters which might but (according to science) probably won't occur.

Heaven forbid there should be anyone asking for evidence. Heaven forbid anyone should present opposing ideas.

reply to post by Phage


You go Phage! Debunk the fear-porn folks!

Do people really want this tsunami or what?

reply to post by Phage


Ok, truce. Do you at least admit that a landslide the size of what could happen here probably would create a tsunami? I inserted the word "probably" just for you. You may elect to use the word "possibly". I would use none of those and just assume that it would create one. It's just logical.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Aestheteka

 

The age provided by your source (the tourist agency) is contradicted by the evidence, indicating that your source is not using current information.

Evidence from the offshore island flank, in the form of a turbidite and debris flow linked to the debris avalanche, indicates an age of about 15 ka

geomar.geo.ub.es...

The number of tremors has decreased a great deal since the peak in August.
www.avcan.org...

My source? My source? Ah, you mean the official site for the island?
Are you suggesting that an official, state-sanctioned source (as opposed to an external, amateur one, even if it is a PhD thesis) might not actually be correct? But, applying logical continuation to that, wouldn't that mean that other state-sanctioned sources on which some rely heavily for their arguments and repostes, might also be less than factual? Phage, you have opened up Pandora's hairy box with this current debunkathon. Perhaps, by your suggestion, we might look at other official statements used to dismiss certain controversial claims. Perhaps they too are also "out of date".

reply to post by Phage


Nobody other than some extreme surfer dudes are waiting for a tsunami and I like your style,
looking for evidence to the contrary is totally contrary to doom and gloom and I dig that !
However the crust in the northwest of the island has recently risen by 3mm and it is getting warmer,
also higher gas emmissions have been noted,so...,its probably a good idea to keep an eye on things and it does seem that global volcanic activity is definetly on the rise-so to speak !

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

Yes. A very large landslide would probably create a tsunami. But there is little evidence, if any, to suggest that such a landslide is imminent in the Canary Islands.

But such a tsunami would be very localized. It would not result in an Atlantic wide tsunami.
tsunamisociety.org...

As far as I am concerned the true objective of this site should be to let open-minded people discuss the possibility of disasters and then find solutions to minimize them. If people in here start thinking better thoughts and know that there are other dimensions controlling this dimension the disasters might become weaker.

So let´s hope that El Hierro won´t sink down into the ocean and cause a mega-tsunami. The nature of the Universe is kindhearted and it wants its inhabitants to be kindhearted too or else they can not continue to live in this Universe. That is why catstrophes are threatening mankind.

According to my opinion, if people follow Truthfulness-Compassion-Forbearance(the fundamental teachings of Falun Dafa which has been released to mankind during the end of times as we know them) in daily life´s actions they are in line with the nature of the universe and will be unaffected by disasters.

And who is "right" or "wrong" is simply not interesting since "truth" is relative. Current science has a one-dimensional foundation which makes its predictions about natural disasters unreliable. The quality of the thoughts of each region´s people will affect the magnitude of the regional natural disasters if you ask me.

Just my two cents, no truth offered whatsoever.

/Truthfulness-Compassion-Forbearance is good, Falun Dafa is good

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

Yes. A very large landslide would probably create a tsunami. But there is little evidence, if any, to suggest that such a landslide is imminent in the Canary Islands.

But such a tsunami would be very localized. It would not result in an Atlantic wide tsunami.
tsunamisociety.org...

Phage, complete and utter "Dis-Info" by you...granted it may not be imminent but it is more than certainly inevitable...

Please find attached HERE a study conducted by The Met Office, British Geological Survey, Proudman Oceanographic Labratory and HR Waillingford.

Turn to page 23 and read

The Canary Islands are a chain of ocean island volcanoes that have grown and been modified over several million years as the centre of volcanic activity has migrated westwards with time. Like similar volcanic chains, they show evidence for large landslides on their flanks (e.g. Hawaii). Such slope failures are an integral part of volcanic island history and the marine evidence indicates that slides have occurred about every 100,000 years over the last million years. The most recent occurred on El Hierro 15,000 years ago. These landslides are tens of kilometres across and have been shown by marine surveys to extend for hundreds of kilometres into deep water. It has been suggested that when a flank fails that it could create a “mega-tsunami” that would still be tens of metres in height even after crossing an ocean. Recent work has suggested that the western flank of La Palma Island is vulnerable to collapse and that it would devastate much of the coastline around the North Atlantic (Ward and Day 2001). (It has been postulated that a similar failure on the Lanai Island in the Hawaiian chain of volcanoes 105,000 years ago created a tsunami that damaged Australia (Young and Bryant, 1992).)

Conclusions (Canary Islands)
• Largest likely event: Landslide
• Probability of tsunamigenic event: Low
• Type of tsunami: Local or transoceanic depending on nature of collapse
• Likelihood of tsunami reaching UK if occurring: Moderate
• Likely coasts affected: Cornwall, north and south Devon

reply to post by jrmcleod

You should have read the links I and others posted.

First, note that it is not El Hierro which is discussed as posing a danger in your link but it is the precisely those claims (Day & Ward) which are not accepted. Neither their assessment of the possibility of collapse or their estimates that a damaging tsunami would cross the Atlantic.

Review of geology and of historic events of LaPalma, does not support claims that the island's western flank is particularly unstable or that the next large volcanic eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano will trigger a massive failure along a detachment fault. There is no seismic data to support that an observed rupture along the crest of the volcano is the surface expression of a major weakness zone along which detachment and major failure can occur in the near future. A summit or flank eruption cannot exert sufficient shear strength to trigger the movement of up to 500 cubic km of material - as postulated.

A collapse of Cumbre Vieja will not generate waves of up to 50 m. in height in Florida and the Caribbean islands, or more than 40 m along the northern coast of Brazil, . Mega tsunami generation from the postulated collapse of Kilauea is equally unrealistic. Waves of up to 30 m for the west coast of North America, and up to 20 m for the southwest Pacific are not possible.

The threat of mega tsunami generation from collapses of oceanic island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated. No mega tsunamis can be expected - even if the lateral collapses of Cumbre Vieja in LaPalma and Kilauea, in Hawaii island occur, as postulated. Greater source dimensions and longer wave periods are required to generate tsunami waves that can have significant, far field effects.

www.drgeorgepc.com...


Young and Bryant have also been disproved.

Results for a hypothetical avalanche in the Hawaiian Islands, ten times the volume of the Alika 2 debris avalanche, show that Hawaii can not be the source for a 15 m wave on the Australian coast. An asteroid impact in the Central Pacific is examined as an alternative scwrce for the erosional wave. Modeling results indicate that the impact of a 6 km asteroid could generate significant wave run-up along the southeastern coast of Australia.

library.lanl.gov...

Since July 2011, El Hierro continues having scores of earthquakes (more than 7.500), measuring 1 to 3 on the Richter Scale, every day. Most of them being recorded at a depth of between 5 and 15 km.

Most of these small earthquakes had been unnoticed by the population but on Saturday, the 24th of September, a magnitud 3.2 was felt SW of Frontera (Tenerife) - Spain. People have now started to feel worried wondering if this means a volcano eruption is under way.

The Canary Islands Government has raised the alert level for the El Hierro volcano in the Canary Islands (Spain) to ‘Yellow’. Although they mention only a 15% of probability of a volcano eruption, authorities have recommended the population to prepare their emergency kit, have all their most important documents close, and to follow the news about the evolution of events...

If he number of volcanic earthquakes beneath El Hierro continues to increase, who knows if this could mean a volcano eruption?

The vast majority of the tremors have been recorded in the northwest of the 278.5-square-kilometre island at El Golfo, the location of a massive landslide that created a 100-metre high tsunami almost 50,000 years ago.

Speaking to the El Pais newspaper during the weekend, volcanologist Juan Carlos Carracedo suggested that an eruption on El Hierro would “not be a major surprise”.

He explained: “It is the youngest of the Canary Islands. There is a ball of magma which is rising to the surface and it is stationed at the limit of the earth’s crust. At the moment we do not know if that ball of magna will break the crust and cause an eruption.”

Source of the quote: Irishweatheronline

This is for sure a "hot spot" to keep an eye on.
Regards,
Ptolomeo.


Sources:
IGN - Instituto Geográfico Nacional de España

Press Release September 24/09/2011 - dated 23/09/2011

TVE1 News

This morning has seen what could probably be described as a swarm - at least 6 logged on EMSC www.emsc-csem.org... ...one of which was a 3.4 . The co-ordinates all seem to be in the same spot ....magma on the move ?

2011-09-27 09:58:11.71hr 20min ago 27.69 N 18.07 W 15 2.5 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 09:58:11.01hr 20min ago 34.83 N 33.81 E 30 3.0 CYPRUS REGION
2011-09-27 09:53:21.01hr 24min ago 27.69 N 18.08 W 15 2.5 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 09:49:49.01hr 28min ago 36.43 N 36.93 E 8 3.1 TURKEY-SYRIA BORDER REGION
2011-09-27 09:37:26.21hr 40min ago 27.69 N 18.08 W 16 2.7 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 09:32:12.01hr 46min ago 27.69 N 18.07 W 14 3.4 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 08:58:53.02hr 19min ago 41.36 N 43.99 E 2 4.4 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO)
2011-09-27 08:58:34.42hr 19min ago 37.29 N 28.20 E 5 2.3 WESTERN TURKEY
2011-09-27 08:43:27.72hr 34min ago 27.68 N 18.08 W 15 2.7 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 08:30:08.92hr 48min ago 7.26 S 129.13 E 130 4.7 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
2011-09-27 08:21:30.52hr 56min ago 36.15 N 35.61 E 22 2.8 CENTRAL TURKEY
2011-09-27 08:16:28.83hr 01min ago 27.67 N 18.08 W 12 2.6 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 08:04:05.53hr 14min ago 27.70 N 18.09 W 15 2.9 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 07:58:22.13hr 19min ago 27.69 N 18.08 W 16 2.6 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 07:52:54.03hr 25min ago 37.89 N 14.87 E 11 2.8 SICILY, ITALY
2011-09-27 07:42:08.63hr 36min ago 27.68 N 18.07 W 16 2.6 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
2011-09-27 06:46:

Following what scientists have recommended, tonight the Canary Government has evacuated 300 residents in El Hierro, because of a possible landslide in the area due to the increasing earthquakes.

Area evacuated: Las Puntas; Sabinosa; Pie Risco; Pozo de la Salud and Guinea, within the town of Frontera.

They have also decided to close schools in Frontera tomorrow.

The Los Roquillos tunnel has also been closed to traffic.

Authorities and scientits admit that they have no idea if an eruption will take place or not, but are doing their best to be prepared for a massive evacuation if needed. Civil Defence has contacted with airlines and shippings to count on them for the evacuation.

Furthermore, Civil Defence has been preparing a plan to evacuate 4.000 in the event of a possible eruption.

Emergency services will soon get what they could need if an eruption took place.

Even though authorities and scientist are trying to keep the residents calm, people have never faced a similar experience as El Hierro had no such emergency since 1739.

We have to point out that aprox. 8.000 earthquakes have been registered since July 2011 and that the island has grown 4 cm. About a dozen have been felt by residents...

This situation is growing in importance day after day. We do not know if an eruption will take place, but earthquakes continue and seem to rise in frequency and magnitude.

We believe that this event should be taken seriously by the inhabitants of the island.

Should an eruption take place, the consequences could be devastating for the island and could be a potential danger for the East Coast (US).

It is better to be prepared than to be sorry...

Keep a close eye on this.
Regards,
Ptolomeo


Sources:
La Provincia
El País

reply to post by Ptolomeo

I'm confused. You say 300 people but your sources say this:

The number of displaced persons is 45. Specifically, we proceeded to evacuate 36 residents and nine Frontera dorm.

www.laprovincia.es...

The seismic crisis of El Hierro has gone up a notch tonight. The authorities have evacuated about 45 people (the council originally planned 300) and closed the main tunnel of the island, linking the two largest cities.

www.elpais.com...

There is no mention of the possibility of a catastrophic landslide. The area evacuated is at the base of a cliff, not a good place to be when there is an earthquake.

reply to post by Phage


This one says 300
www.elmundo.es...
and your source says 53
www.laprovincia.es...
So don't fight

el Cabildo había previsto inicialmente 300

They planned for an evacuation of 300 but only 53 were eventually evacuated
There you go

reply to post by intergalactic fire

Well how are we supposed to know what's going on when they keep changing the news like that.