Is this man crazy or are ATS'ers the smartest people on Earth?

Just found this interesting video...
Mainstream Former Geologist Predicts Major Pacific Quake

ATS members have been making posts for months about everything this man predicts. In particular how fish kills precede quakes, 188 days theory, underground water table/tidal effect etc.

Who is Jim Berkland?
bio

He doesn't appear to be a crank. I like to be proven wrong though so what are your thoughts?

reply to post by marsbeatsmoon


There's been several threads about him on ATS - just use the search function. I used to somewhat follow his website syzygyjob.com, but what it amounts to if you follow him for any length of time is that he pretty much makes the same "predictions" month after month. His "predictions" are in areas that have fairly regular quakes, so he's easily able to "predict" with at least 75% accuracy. This was his August "prediction" straight from his website:

AUGUST PREDICTIONS
The Seismic Window of Aug. 11-18, 2011 is based on the full Moon of Aug. 13, perigee of Aug. 2nd. Maximum Golden Gate tides only reach 6.9 ft. on Aug. 11. I predict with only 75% confidence that one or more of the following quakes will occur:
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo (centered at 37.9N; 121.9W.
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles Civic Center (at 34.0N; 118.0W)
(3) 3.5-6.5M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4) Major 7.0+M quake globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where more than 80% of the strongest earthquakes occur annually.

As you can see, for example, number 3 is a "prediction" of a 3.5 to 6.5M earthquake in Washington or Oregon. There is a 3.5ish quake in Washington or Oregon almost every month, so he will get that one right. Within 140 miles of Mt Diablo and LA - those are both fairly active areas also. 7.0 "somewhere"...wow, that pretty much narrows it down to anywhere on Earth. So technically he is an accurate earthquake "predictor", but any one of us can make the same "predictions" with the same accuracy. It's about as much of a prediction as me "predicting" that the Seattle area may have rain sometime within the next 30 days.

Originally posted by tallcool1
(4) Major 7.0+M quake globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where more than 80% of the strongest earthquakes occur annually.

Good analysis.

When have we gone a month without having a 7.0 earthquake somewhere? It would be an extremely rare event to NOT have a 7.0 earthquake somewhere!

Look at this graph:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a1a12b4ef651.png[/atsimg]
They aren't that uncommon if the scope is the entire planet.

And 3.5 earthquakes happen about as often as a cow farts, which is pretty often.

It's about as much of a prediction as me "predicting" that the Seattle area may have rain sometime within the next 30 days.

If it rains in Seattle in the next 30 days, there will be calls to burn you at the stake for being a witch!

Sounds a bit like Piers Corbyn with his weather 'forecasts' which basically amount to: "there will be severe thunderstorms in north or central USA between the 15th and 21st May +/- 3 days either side"

Originally posted by Arbitrageur

Originally posted by tallcool1
(4) Major 7.0+M quake globally, probably within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where more than 80% of the strongest earthquakes occur annually.

Good analysis.

When have we gone a month without having a 7.0 earthquake somewhere? It would be an extremely rare event to NOT have a 7.0 earthquake somewhere!

Look at this graph:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a1a12b4ef651.png[/atsimg]
They aren't that uncommon if the scope is the entire planet.

And 3.5 earthquakes happen about as often as a cow farts, which is pretty often.

It's about as much of a prediction as me "predicting" that the Seattle area may have rain sometime within the next 30 days.

If it rains in Seattle in the next 30 days, there will be calls to burn you at the stake for being a witch!

Well, I guess people better fire up their torches because I'm looking out my window (about 30 miles south of Seattle) and it's raining. I'm 100% accurate on my predictions! I think I smell cow farts too.