WARNING: Highly speculative politics post.
Joseph Heath Schuler
A businessman, former quarterback, and current United States Representative for the North Carolina 11th Congressional District, one which is given a
voting record of a strong Republican + 6. He is one of the few remaining Blue Dog Democrats who survived the 2010 Republican landslide in a district
which is overall more Republican than the New York 9th District is Democratic. With a strong 8% lead he came out empowered and sought to use that
election as a motivation for change within his party.
When he challenged House Speaker and Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi for her role as caucus head the results were stunning; 11 Democrats voted for him.
You may say, “Wow 11 how impressive” then roll your eyes but please consider, that was the largest voter dissent for party leadership since
If and I am emphasizing the big if
so as to not anger any of my liberal friends here, the Democrats are hurt even worse in 2012 perhaps losing
20+ seats more and Nancy Pelosi wants to hang on as leader he will challenge her again. This time I think it would create an even larger uprising. He
did the unthinkable by challenging the sitting Speaker of the House and leader of his party, why would he not do it again if the party suffers another
Schuler voted for the “Cut, Cap, and Balance” bill passed by the House, as did 4 other Blue Dog Democrats. My prediction is that these Blue Dogs
will be the least likely to lose election next year, especially since they will have a conservative record to run on in conservative areas while also
being able to tell liberals that they are a better alternative to the Republicans. So do not expect them to just get the boot next year and if they do
not get the boot there is a good chance they will attempt an uprising if their party falls even harder.
Now I am a realist, I acknowledge the chances of Schuler or any non-Liberal Democrat actually staging a coup and winning is well… about as likely as
a Republican voting for Nancy Pelosi. But the fact remains, I believe he will see an opening with a lot of angry Democrats who will refuse to vote for
the establishment of the party seeing them as the cause for their party’s fall and will try to rise up. Schuler seems to be the only one who has the
will to do it.
And hypothetically speaking, if he did win this coup, it would dramatically change the party in a very new direction. It would arguably be the most
important in-party vote since the nomination of George McGovern for the presidential nominee. Liberals would hate it for sure, Conservatives would
love it no doubt, but what would the party voters and American public think?
edit on 9/14/2011 by Misoir because: (no reason given)