reply to post by guitarist
Yes, as i said before i also experience a 'cold trend' for last couple of years. We had to coldest summer in 25 years in N-Europe, with lots of rain
and when the sun came out, temperatures rose from 12 degrees C to a 30 degrees C just in 1 day. But didn't last long, after 2-3 days we were back at
a low temperature rainy, stormy,... what you want, but no sun.
Also in S-Europe it followed a same trend, temperatures were higher than in N-Europe, but compared to 5-15 years ago it was still colder.
We've had snow at very low altitudes, almost at sea-level! My father-in-law had never saw this in his lifetime! For the first time he bought 'winter
tires' for his car
Also the storms from past 2 years, he never witnessed this before.
I wonder when this year's winter will start?
Yes, we'll have to wait and see what nature will do and science will provides us.
For solar activity, last year the sun had it's second longest cycle since 1755.
It lasted for 12.6 years.
The longest one was SC4(1784-1798) 13.6 years.
Notice that right after that we experienced the Dalton Minimum, (presented in the first graph).
Also notice the maximum and minimum SSN after this long duration cycle en.wikipedia.org...
( yes it's a wiki link, but
i verified this with other data, wiki gives a easy presentation on this)
So could the previous cycle be an indication what will happen now with SC24?
Well a way scientists trying to predict the behaviour of the current one is by looking at the previous one.
SC23 had the deepest solar minimum in almost a 100 years.
The solar minimum of sc23 was unusually deep and the sun appears to be on the verge of a weak solar cycle.
David Hathaway, a NASA solar physicist who studies the sun's conveyor belt reports:
the top of the sun's Great Conveyor Belt has been running at record-high speeds for the past five years.
"I believe this could explain the unusually deep solar minimum we've been experiencing"
The speed-up was surprising on two levels
First, it coincided with the deepest solar minimum in nearly 100 years, contradicting models that say a fast-moving belt should boost sunspot
production. The basic idea is that the belt sweeps up magnetic fields from the sun's surface and drags them down to the sun's inner dynamo. There
the fields are amplified to form the underpinnings of new sunspots. A fast-moving belt should accelerate this process
Instead of boosting sunspots, Hathaway believes that a fast-moving Conveyor Belt can instead suppress them "by counteracting magnetic diffusion at
the sun's equator." read more
Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number
Solar Cycle Prediction
Link to another graph of the solar polar field strength
The graph is suggesting that we still don't have a lot of flux flowing towards the poles which could indicate a longer and lower solar minimum.
Current projections are that both fields will have reversed sometime between February 2012 and December 2012. Based on previous solar cycles and the
current polar field situation, the maximum for cycle 24 could be reached earlier than expected, probably sometime in 2012.
If all this results into a cooling?
We just have to wait until next year's solar maximum, when imo, new conclusive evidence will emerge on the effects of solar activity to earth's
Can you wait that long?