Are we heading for a new mini ice age?
If we believe that most of our climate is driven by our star, the sun and it's activity, we would say yes.
At first i want to start with a link to an article i read from Víctor Manuel Velasco, a theoretical physicist and researcher at the Institute of
Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Velasco is one of many scientists who question the conclusions of the United Nation’s
IPCC, a political body which has been the primary force behind the promotion of the catastrophic global warming hypothesis.
He says that our recent winter conditions are similar to those of the little ice age, in particular the Maunder Minimum. In that period astronomers
observed only about 50 sunspots.
This period lasted about 70 years so that means +-6 solar cycles.
If we compare that to other cycles.
Maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number
An average of the last 10 solar cycles = 130 sunspots
An average of the last 20 solar cycles = 115 sunspots
An average from solar cycle 1-23 = 114 sunspots
If we count 6 years SC1-SC6 we get a total of +-600 sunspots.
I will come back later on this when continue on solar activity.
Velasco also said that the position of earth in relation to the rest of the solar system, is similar then during this period of the little ice age.
We are talking about the period between 1645 and 1715, which is known as the Maunder Minimum, a period in which the sunspots practically
disappeared from the surface of the sun, and in which our planet occupied a position similar to which it has today, with respect to the center of
gravity of our solar system.”
To verify what he says on our position ' with respect to the center of gravity of the solar system' i don't have the equipment or sources. But i
guess he has, otherwise he wouldn't mention it, right?
The theory of Al Gore that global warming is man-made, has been many times overthrown by scientists. The input of the data was wrong. Somehow he
changed the data from the medieval warm period.
The hockey-stick graph by Al Gore
Graph with the restored data
What if we go back in time and see how the data looks now?
But to see the real difference we have to go back to the last ice age
What about co2 emissions in the atmosphere, are they at a maximum?
This graph doesn't show much difference than previous data.
This excludes that we are not living in a time of abnormal heat or facing any kind of 'global warming' caused by co2 emissions from our cars and
Although his 'computer models' proves we are in for a 'global warming period', the input data is coming from people and if these data are wrong,
so will the models be.
Back to Velasco
Velasco dismissed computer models that are used to predict global warming as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, noting that “today
we are experiencing a scientific revolution in which on one side there are are supercomputers and on the other, human intelligence. Only human beings
create knowledge and science, and those who bet on computers are making an erroneous diagnosis.”
“It will be nature that demonstrates which theory is the correct one. However, the Earth is getting colder,” he added.
Those are also my beliefs. Whatever our modern civilization does we can't influence or control global climate, yet.
To go back to solar activity data.
In June 2011 there was an announcement from the NSO(National Solar Observatory)
Solar activity may be in for a long period of low activity.
The switch between solar cycles always happens at a minimum.
The transition between cycle 24(the one the sun is in now) and 25 may be a time of long minimum and low activity.
"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it," Hill said. "The flow for Cycle 25 should have
appeared in 2008 or 2009. This leads us to believe that the next cycle will be very much delayed, with a minimum longer than the one we just went
through." Hill estimated that the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all.
You could say there is a possibility that the sun skips SC25.
So where is the solar cycle 24 now according to previous cycles?
So if solar maximum will peak in 2012, we have some catching up to do.
I also want to mention that the strength of the magnetic field of the previous cycles is decreasing as shown in the graph.
Every 11 years he sun changes polarity or the poles flip caused by the transport of meridional flows on the sun’s surface that carry magnetic fields
from mid-latitude sunspots to the sun’s poles.
These flows transport south-pointing magnetic flux to the north magnetic pole, and north-pointing flux to the south magnetic pole.
The field weakens as oppositely-directed flux accumulates at the sun’s poles until, at the height of solar maximum, the magnetic poles change
polarity and begin to grow in a new direction.
Here i want to add the unusual log minimum of cycle 23 that was indirectly caused by a weak polar magnetic field and a large number of days without
sunspots(820days, the cycle lasted 12.6 years) The direct cause was by meridional plasma flow variations as mentioned above.
What other data do we have on ice ages?
Isn't this graph showing we are at a temperature maxima and if we believe those cycles we are heading for an ice age?
So what will happen in the coming years?
Wait and see, but if you look at these recent announcements of a solar dip and you believe the sun drives global climate change, you better get your
List of Solar cycles
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Eminent geophysicist rejects global
warming theory, says world on verge of ‘mini ice age’
Hockey stick?What hockey stick?
Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
Ice Age Temperature