An interesting scenario; Turkey is also a nuclear-armed nation. It has NATO nuclear armaments! Moreover, the attack on the Gaza flotilla was and could
easily be interpreted as an attack on Turkish sovereignty. This means that, as with Al Qaeda's attack on the WTC, it constitutes an act of war
against NATO in general. America is morally obliged to support Israel, but they are legally and strategically obliged to support Turkey.
Laffs, I started writing this post before seeing Intrepid's
twins OO ee OOO eee
This scenario reminds me of (indulge me) 1938 Europe. Stalin had recently purged his military of anti-government officers, leaving the Red Army
weakened compared to its chief rival, the strict and well-disciplined Wehrmacht. Likewise, the Turkish army may be weakened relative to the
well-ordered Israeli Defense Force.
An interesting aside that makes this analogy so much better: Wehrmacht is German for defence force
The Israeli Defence Force, official army of Israel, is the Israel Wehrmacht.
Like 1930s Germany, Israel is a nation that depends heavily on imports of fuel and material to make its war efforts possible. Its chief weapon in all
cases is a tenacious racial nationalism; Israel for Jews, just as Hitler had Germany for Germans.
Like 1930s Russia, Turkey has one of the few growing economies in the world. It is developing at a rapid pace and previously sought acceptance among
the other nations, but has recently turned its back on the path of European Unification.
I predict that, were a war to break out between these nations, then the Israelis would make strong early advances with their superior ground forces
and air support. They may even penetrate into Turkey itself. However, I see the problem of the Turkish military purge fading away the longer they
fight, and their novice officers gain experience in the field. As with the Red Army and the USSR, their materiel supply and command structure will
become ever-stronger as the war progresses due to wartime investment and development. Israel, on the other hand, will suffer from embargo, bankruptcy,
and alienation leading to the decline in their own supplies and the concurrent decline in national morale. The longer the war draws out, the more
likely it becomes that a nation of 80 million Turks will emerge victorious.