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'Tsunami' to hit Oz real estate: Dent predicts world will experience a second, deeper downturn

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posted on Sep, 12 2011 @ 06:45 AM

Originally posted by surrealist

Australia's love affair with property is about to turn sour as an "economic tsunami" looks set to hit world markets, American economic forecaster Harry Dent says.

Mr Dent, who arrived in Australia on Sunday, predicts the world will experience a second, deeper downturn, which will arrive between the beginning and the middle of next year.

Starting in Europe, the downturn will spread to the US, China and eventually Australia, he said.

"Australia is probably the best place in the world to survive this, but we do think Australia will not escape as well as it did from the last crisis (in 2008)," Mr Dent told AAP....

Mr Dent said Australia's house prices would return to late 1990s or early 2000 levels.

So the economic forecaster predicts the world will enter a second deeper downturn by the beginning or mid next year

. He also predicts, as per further on in the article, gold and silver are going to crash as they are in a bubble now.

Other than a drop off in spending, Dent doesn't provide a trigger as to what is going to lead to the next downturn or The Great Crash Ahead as his book is titled,.


i think the man is tripping over his own shoelaces.

a greater collapse will happen as nations default and reissue the money they once used (Greece-Drachma, etc)

but Gold & Silver crashing would be counter intuitive, because all currencies & central banks are buying & hoarding metals for the exact reason of backing their future money units after the globe defaults the current system including the dumping of All the Central Bankers and the USAs Federal Reserve

i can see no other way for a massive deflation the author suggests is coming next year

posted on Sep, 12 2011 @ 06:57 AM
He isnt the only economist who's saying Australia wont be immune when the next global economic crisis hits... and to expect the impact by and after 2012 (watch ABC Sunday Business Insider and Lateline Business program Week Nights)

They also inform us...
When the global economic crash/downfall hits, it WILL BE a lengthly turn around - meaning: it will take years.. even a decade or two for some countries (USA & EU) to return to some sort of economic prosperity (so much for global capitalism eh)

So far the forecasting for Australia IF and WHEN this happens (globally) has been a quicker turn around, since we seem to be alot more economically stable than other countries, but anything can happen (figures for Australia) between NOW and then (mid 2012), it also depends on how well China is buffered for that time frame/period in regards to Australia's certainty and future

We often hear in the media, politicans and real estate agency's of housing shortage, but what they refuse to admit openly every single time.. we have an AFFORDABLE HOUSING SHORTAGE in Australia!

How many brand new homes actually sit empty for months (many times over 6 months) unsold? thousands!!!

Its not a shortage of housing... its shortage of affordable houses/ing!

I was checking out real over the weekend, comparing a few states - QLD, NSW, VIC, ACT

QLD homes are now relisted so much lower than they were 6 months ago (homes which havent sold)

where as in ACT at least with apartments/villas/units/townhouses they're still listed relatively the same as 6 months ago (not much of a huge price change)

NSW slight change, VIC slight change

Asking price indictors will and do vary depending on location within these States, Surburbs, No.of bedrooms etc

Homes which were listed 6 months ago $550K - $650K have dropped drastically
Where as homes over $700K are still holding out as long as possible to the original asking price (owners hopeful I reckon lol)

Just watch what happens as the global markets continue to expose instability over the next 6 - 10 months, especially if we notice job cut numbers continuing (public and private sector state to state), Next Federal Budget, Local and State Governmentstart tightening up even more.... The housing market, asking price will lower even more if their house hasnt sold by then (if on the market over 6 months)

posted on Sep, 12 2011 @ 07:01 AM

Originally posted by XplanetX

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
oh yeah i agree, America took a nose dive off a cliff...
but lets be honest... if your working at 7-11, have minimal savings and no real long term goals, and your given a 200-350,000 k mortgage.. thats a means to disaster. and the US banks just seemed willing to hand out credit to every tom dick and harry... your work dried up, people couldnt pay mortgages, all of a sudden you have uber amounts of cheap, common housing..

Australia but, the people owning the houses OWN the houses..
the small sector of mortgagee's stupid enough to take a 2x1 fibro from coodanup for 350,000 will lose their homes.
but this is a minority..

Also, Australia's built on mining... now, if there was a super massive world drop off.. the world will still need metal, minerals and mining, which is where a large portion of Australias home ownership income comes from.
it would take something pretty astonishing to kill all mining and export in Australia, of which will force realestate to drop like a rock.

Actually we don't own them. Our private debt to GDP ratio is worse than the US.

This is a fact

True, but our saving rates since 2008 has increased big time compared to the USA, which is a positive for Australia, according to the Reserve Bank statements the last month or so

edit on 12-9-2011 by Ellen15 because: (no reason given)

posted on Sep, 13 2011 @ 03:28 AM
I hope the property market does crash then maybe us Gen Y will have a chance at the old Australian dream.
But I maintain that its the baby boomers who are propping up the market and created a 'housing bubble'.
They want more than what they bought the property for which is one reason why houses prices are so high in Australia.

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